What if the BCS Ruled the NFL?

With the Super Bowl matchup finally decided, I got to thinking: what if the NFL used the same postseason system employed by major college football? What if the Super Bowl participants were determined by a vote with little (if any) real meaning placed on team performance? What if everyone else was vying for a "major" postseason game with a premium time slot set some time between the end of the season and the Super Bowl (assuming that they leave the Super Bowl in early February, which we know the BCS would)?

What I've compiled below is a list of the top 10 NFL teams based on a simple average of four major power polls (NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ESPN.com, and CBS Sportsline) and point differential (by rank). I would have included more polls for a better look at the poll distribution, but unfortunately many pollsters do not bother to release a poll after the season's final week. I've chosen the number 10 because that is the number of college football teams that earn bids to the BCS bowls, meaning they've qualified for the "major" bowls.

	Pt. Dif.		Pts. Rank	NBC Rank	FOX Rank	ESPN Rank	CBS Rank	Rank Ave.	Rank
Miami	28		16	9	11	8	8	10.4	10
New England	101		6	7	8	9	12	8.4	8
NY Jets	49		12	21	15	17	16	16.2
Buffalo	-6		20	23	25	23	22	22.6
Pittsburgh	124		5	5	5	3	3	4.2	3
Baltimore	141		1	6	7	6	7	5.4	6
Cincinnati	-160		30	28	27	27	24	27.2
Cleveland	-118		27	31	29	29	30	29.2
Tennessee	141		1	3	1	1	1	1.4	1
Indianapolis	79		9	1	4	5	5	4.8	5
Houston	-28		21	14	17	18	17	17.4
Jacksonville	-65		24	27	23	25	26	25.0
San Diego	92		7	12	12	12	14	11.4
Denver	-78		25	18	21	22	20	21.2
Oakland	-125		28	24	28	26	27	26.6
Kansas City	-149		29	30	30	30	29	29.6
NY Giants	133		3	2	2	2	2	2.2	2
Philadelphia	127		4	10	9	11	9	8.6	9
Dallas	-3		19	16	19	14	13	16.2
Washington	-31		22	25	16	21	25	21.8
Minnesota	46		13	11	10	10	10	10.8
Chicago	25		17	22	14	15	18	17.2
Green Bay	39		14	20	24	24	23	21.0
Detroit	-249		32	32	32	32	32	32.0
Carolina	85		8	4	3	4	4	4.6	4
Atlanta	66		11	8	6	7	6	7.6	7
Tampa Bay	38		15	13	20	16	15	15.8
New Orleans	70		10	17	13	19	19	15.6
Arizona	1		17	15	22	13	11	15.6
San Francisco	-42		22	19	18	20	21	20.0
Seattle	-98		25	26	26	28	28	26.6
St. Louis	-233		31	29	31	31	31	30.6

The table given here is broken down by division, starting with the AFC East, North, South and West then the NFC East, North, South and West. Here's a breakdown of the results (site is based on the team with better locale or domed stadium):

BCS Bowl #1: #10 Miami Dolphins vs. #9 Philadelphia Eagles
Site: Miami, FL
Note: Although there would be intrigue in the Dolphins rematching the Patriots (they split the season series and the Patriots come in at #8 on the list), the selection committee would likely look to avoid such a matchup.

BCS Bowl #2: #8 New England Patriots vs. #7 Atlanta Falcons
Site: Atlanta, GA
Note: Matty Ice vs. Matt Cassel!

BCS Bowl #3: #6 Baltimore Ravens vs. #4 Carolina Panthers
Site: Charlotte, NC
Note: Continuing the AFC vs. NFC trend, this match pits two of the top rushing attacks in football.

BCS Bowl #4: #5 Indianapolis Colts vs. #3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Site: Indianapolis, IN
Note: Rematch of the Steelers stunning AFC Championship game upset of the #1 seeded Colts in the 2006 playoffs, the year the Steelers won the Super Bowl.

BCS Super Bowl: #2 New York Giants vs. #1 Tennessee Titans
Site: Tampa, FL (site of Super Bowl XLIII)
Note: The two best teams throughout the season, both finished no worse than #3 in any poll or the point differential ranking. Most would say the BCS got it right!

Biggest Whiner(s): The Vikings finish #11 and just .4 behind the #10 Dolphins. San Diego is left out as well at #12, just 1.0 behind the Miami. The two would likely meet in San Diego for an exhibition bowl. All teams with an 8-8 record or better face off in a "postseason" game.

Best Argument for Split Title: If the Steelers defeated the Colts, and especially if the Giants defeat the Titans, Pittsburgh could make an argument. Carolina could potentially as well, but their loss to the Giants in the regular season kills their argument.

No Respect: The Arizona Cardinals (you know, the team that actually MADE THE SUPER BOWL) finished #14 in the rankings and in one poll (FOX) actually finished behind the 7-9 49ers. Only CBS had the Cardinals among the league's top 12 (good for them).

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Did Texas Do Enough?

The Texas Longhorns, likely the team most betrayed by the BCS system this year as they fell short of making the Big XII and National Championship games only because of the computers and formulas of the BCS, faced the Ohio State Buckeyes last night in yet another classic Fiesta Bowl. (How is it that the Fiesta Bowl seems to always get the best games year after year? This game, the infamous Oklahoma-Boise State game two years ago, the thrilling Miami-Ohio State national title game in 2002, etc.) Here are a few thoughts on the game and its ramifications.

Coming into the game, the Longhorns were an 8.5 point favorite (I took them to cover figuring they had much more to play for) and were looking to make a statement and argument for a portion of the title. Instead it took a late rally to survive the Buckeyes with a 24-21 win. Is this the statement they needed to make? Absolutely not. The Buckeyes showed much more than anyone outside of the greater Columbus area expected, but the fact that the Texas offense generated just 24 points after claiming all along that they were the best offense in the country was telling. Yes the Buckeyes had a strong defense all year, but there was little doubt that their defensive numbers were inflated, at least somewhat, by playing in the weak Big Ten conference. For Colt McCoy and crew to muster just 24 points (despite going over 400 yards offense) will be very damning, especially in the era of running up the score. Voters seem to be much more impressed by lopsided, poor-sportsmanship demonstrating blow-outs than they are quality games.

So how would my top five be shaping up right now? I'd have to put Texas in the number 5 spot, despite their 12-1 mark in the rough Big XII. At number 4, simply do to the fact that there are still tons of questions about how they'd do against the other top teams, I'd put the Utah Utes. Yes, they're the only unbeaten team and defeated four top-25 teams this year, but I still don't know that they'd beat any of the top 3 on a neutral field. At number 3 I'll go with the loser of the Oklahoma-Florida game on Thursday. Sure, that team will have 2 losses, but the teams that have defeated them (Texas for OU and a much stronger than expected Ole Miss team for Florida) are both top-10 caliber teams in my mind. Of course, this is assuming a close title game. A blowout and the loser drops to number 5 instantly.

At number 2 I'd have to put the USC Trojans. This team has the best defense I can remember seeing since I've started following college football. This squad is absolutely loaded with pro talent on both sides of the ball, and if not for a hiccup on a short week (remember, their loss against Oregon State was on a Thursday night and on the road), they'd probably be the clear #1. Obviously at number 1 will be the winner of the national championship game. As much as everyone likes to complain about how things have shaken out, I fully believe that both of these teams (OU and Florida) are as deserving of the title shot and the winner will have the best win on their resume in a postseason game of any of the top 5.

It's sad what college football has allowed itself to become: a beauty contest. (I'd say a popularity contest, but I think Texas is more popular than Oklahoma and yet the Longhorns got shafted worse than anyone else.) Teams are again expected to run up the score on inferior opponents (which also removes any motivation to schedule decent non-conference opponents because a close game hurts both teams) and causes poor sportsmanship to be accepted and even praised. Look at the Sooners this year: they mercilessly ran up the score against Missouri in the conference title game in order to get to the 60 point plateau for a record-setting fifth straight game, and they were roundly applauded for this lack of class. If the conference commissioners truly believe that constant criticism and venom toward their sport is good for the game, then by all means they should continue the BCS system. If not... well, I guess the "if not" is never going to happen.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.

BCS Bowl Rundown

Check the odds to all the remaining bowl games here. Below are my predictions for the five BCS bowls. I'm not one of those writers that's foolish enough to think I can predict actual final scores, so I'll just give you the pick against the spread (for entertainment purposes only, of course).

The Rose Bowl Game (3:30 CST, January 1st)
USC (-9) vs. Penn State
The Take: Huge surprise, USC is back in the Rose Bowl. Again. This game is rather tough to pick because USC under Pete Carroll is beginning to be know as a team that will fail to show up in one or two meaningless games a year and accidentally lose. Is the Rose Bowl a meaningless game? Well, if you're the Trojans, a team that has played in this game for something like 12 years straight, maybe you start to wonder. Both of these teams had national championship aspirations this year and fell one win short of reaching that mark. Penn State's strength this year has been it's defense, but no defense has been better than USC's in all of college football. When it comes down to it, I just don't think the Nittany Lions can hang with the Trojans in this one.
The Pick: Trojans win and cover.

The Orange Bowl (7:00 CST, January 1st)
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech
The Take: This game alone demonstrates why the automatic bid system in the BCS is flawed. Neither of these teams would come close to qualifying for a BCS bowl under normal circumstances, but because they won weak BCS conferences, and because of the order of selection options* for the BCS bowls, this is what we get. I've only seen each of these teams play a couple of times, and neither really stood out. Both have solid defenses and offenses that can get on a roll, but aren't going to dominate from start to finish. This game has the feel of a 24-21 contest that comes down to a late field goal or a late turnover that decides it.
The Pick: Virginia Tech to win and cover in an "upset."

*Each BCS bowl has certain conference tie-ins that they may automatically choose from. After these choices, all bowls are given the option to choose whichever qualifying teams they wish. The Orange Bowl has a tie-in with the ACC (and thus took Virginia Tech). Each year the selection process for choosing at large participants rotates among the bowls, so no bowl gets first pick all the time. This year, the Orange Bowl was at the bottom of the list, and because of the way circumstances worked out, the Big East champion Cincinnati was left as an "at large," although they were guaranteed a spot. So when the Orange Bowl's selection occurred, they had no choice but to take the Bearcats because Cincinnati was assured a spot.

The Sugar Bowl (7:00 CST, January 2nd)
Alabama (-9.5) vs. Utah
The Take: Alabama could make an argument, however fruitless, that they deserve to play for the national title, but they didn't even win their conference. For the past 4+ years, the Mountain West has been the cream of the non-BCS crop and this is their second BCS buster in the last 4 seasons (Utah both times). The Utes could certainly make an argument, possibly even more compelling than Alabama's, that THEY should be playing for the title. Either way, both teams have a chip on their shoulder and a lot to prove. The weight of this game on Utah (they, more than anyone before them, are playing for all non-BCS schools' right to a shot at a title) could be too much to bare. While the Utes are a solid, even great, team (I still think Alex Smith's/Urban Meyer's Utah team four years ago was much better), they are physically overmatched and facing one of the top coaches in all of college football. I love the Mountain West (I graduated from a Mountain West school), but I just don't think the Utes have what it takes to pull it off.
The Pick: Alabama to win, Utah to cover (barely).

The Fiesta Bowl (7:00 CST, January 5th)
Texas (-8.5) vs. Ohio State
The Pick: The biggest question in this game is what will the Longhorns attitude be? Will they come in frustrated that they didn't get a title shot and feeling like they should be playing in an even better bowl (aka the BCS National Championship Game)? Or will they come in feeling that if they win and win BIG, maybe they can sway enough AP voters to pull off the first split national championship since USC took home the AP vote in 2003 (LSU won the BCS title that year). From the Buckeyes' standpoint, this has been a "down" year for them, with "just" 10 wins and "just" an at large BCS bid. That said, they still have one of the top coaches in the country (Texas' Mack Brown has the advantage in recruiting, I think Ohio State's Jim Tressel has the edge in x's and o's) and a lot of talent. Just not as much talent as Texas. Ohio State's best shot is to run, run, run with Chris "Beanie" Wells and try to keep Colt McCoy and that dazzling Texas offense off the field. Unfortunately, I really don't see that happening.
The Pick: Texas to win and cover (and then some).

The BCS National Championship Game (7:00 CST, January 8th)
Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma
The Take: Yes, Oklahoma is missing a starter on offense (tailback DeMarco Murray) and defense (tackle DeMarcus Granger). Yes, Heisman Trophy winners are 1-5 in national championship games. Yes, Bob Stoops has shown up small in his last several BCS bowl games. BUT, I still like the Sooners here, and here's why: Oklahoma can score. They can run (their "backup" Chris Brown rushed for over 1,000 yards) and pass (quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman, ya know) and Florida's defense, while it's been good this year, hasn't faced an offense like this all year. The Gator's offense is also extremely solid, but when the Sooners defense is motivated (see the Texas Tech game in November), it can cause a lot of problems. I see this game going one of two very similar ways: either the Sooners score early, jump out big and pull away early before the Gators come back and fall just short; or the Gators score early, jump out big and win in a landslide. After all the criticism he's taken in previous years, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Stoops has his guys ready this time, Oklahoma strikes early and often, and the Gators, despite valiant efforts, come up just short.
The Pick: Oklahoma to win in an upset and, of course, cover.

So what's your take?

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.