It seems like every day since the end of the regular season ESPN has had some story about the Dallas Cowboys to run and talk about. Not only that, but these ridiculous stories are often listed as "The Lead" on their bottom line. Am I the only one that is getting sick of this? This is like the Brett Favre saga all over again. Who really cares that Jerry Jones thinks the Cowboys were tardy too often last year? Why is it a leading story that the Cowboys are going to "consider cutting Terrell Owens"? Is this really surprising or newsworthy? Wake me when they actually do it! Free agency doesn't even start until the end of February, and no one starts resigning or cutting players until AT LEAST after the Pro Bowl!
This is becoming a growing trend not only in the sports media but in the news media at large. The primary drawback of the 24 hour cable news world is that some of the most insignificant minutia becomes top story-worthy simply because the networks have way more air time to fill than they have stories of interest to cover. I could make a comment here about ESPN's love for the Cowboys and the NFC East in general, but you could argue that we got the same over-coverage of the Broncos' firing of Shanahan, Brett Favre's retirement saga last year, and any number of other stories that have gotten way more coverage than they deserve. Would any sports fans have really been that upset about steroids if ESPN and the other networks didn't sensationalize it?
I think the average sports fan has pretty basic needs when it comes to sports coverage:
1. Tell us the score - Obviously this is point number one. We can't all see all of the games, and most of us wouldn't want to if we could. There are going to be games in all sports (except football) where you simply don't care to watch your team play because either a) they're much better than their opponent and should win easily, so you do something else; or b) they're much worse than their opponent and you'd rather not watch your favorite team get demolished. Not to mention those times when you actually have a life outside of sports! Anyway, these are the scores we need to know. That and the scores of your other, lesser-favored teams and your teams' rivals.
2. Tell us of anything crazy or historic that happened - We all want to know when a guy goes off for 6 TDs or 30 points in a quarter or throws a no-hitter or hits a buzzer-beater, etc. Again, we can't watch every game, so tell us what cool shenanigans we missed.
3. Let us know when major off-field news breaks - Trades, hirings, firings, injuries... these are important stories. NOT whether Tony Romo plays a large enough leadership role or why the team plane was an hour late!
Everything else is just fluff. Sure we like breakdowns of games that just happened or games that will happen soon, and sure we all flock to mock drafts, trade rumor boards and the like all the time because it's fun to speculate and fantasize about your team making that one big move. But none of this is truly necessary and a story about a rumor should never lead a major sports program.
Sorry about venting (and no I didn't just have a Coors Light), I just had to get that off my chest.
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Thursday, January 22, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
What if the BCS Ruled the NFL?
With the Super Bowl matchup finally decided, I got to thinking: what if the NFL used the same postseason system employed by major college football? What if the Super Bowl participants were determined by a vote with little (if any) real meaning placed on team performance? What if everyone else was vying for a "major" postseason game with a premium time slot set some time between the end of the season and the Super Bowl (assuming that they leave the Super Bowl in early February, which we know the BCS would)?
What I've compiled below is a list of the top 10 NFL teams based on a simple average of four major power polls (NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ESPN.com, and CBS Sportsline) and point differential (by rank). I would have included more polls for a better look at the poll distribution, but unfortunately many pollsters do not bother to release a poll after the season's final week. I've chosen the number 10 because that is the number of college football teams that earn bids to the BCS bowls, meaning they've qualified for the "major" bowls.
The table given here is broken down by division, starting with the AFC East, North, South and West then the NFC East, North, South and West. Here's a breakdown of the results (site is based on the team with better locale or domed stadium):
BCS Bowl #1: #10 Miami Dolphins vs. #9 Philadelphia Eagles
Site: Miami, FL
Note: Although there would be intrigue in the Dolphins rematching the Patriots (they split the season series and the Patriots come in at #8 on the list), the selection committee would likely look to avoid such a matchup.
BCS Bowl #2: #8 New England Patriots vs. #7 Atlanta Falcons
Site: Atlanta, GA
Note: Matty Ice vs. Matt Cassel!
BCS Bowl #3: #6 Baltimore Ravens vs. #4 Carolina Panthers
Site: Charlotte, NC
Note: Continuing the AFC vs. NFC trend, this match pits two of the top rushing attacks in football.
BCS Bowl #4: #5 Indianapolis Colts vs. #3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Site: Indianapolis, IN
Note: Rematch of the Steelers stunning AFC Championship game upset of the #1 seeded Colts in the 2006 playoffs, the year the Steelers won the Super Bowl.
BCS Super Bowl: #2 New York Giants vs. #1 Tennessee Titans
Site: Tampa, FL (site of Super Bowl XLIII)
Note: The two best teams throughout the season, both finished no worse than #3 in any poll or the point differential ranking. Most would say the BCS got it right!
Biggest Whiner(s): The Vikings finish #11 and just .4 behind the #10 Dolphins. San Diego is left out as well at #12, just 1.0 behind the Miami. The two would likely meet in San Diego for an exhibition bowl. All teams with an 8-8 record or better face off in a "postseason" game.
Best Argument for Split Title: If the Steelers defeated the Colts, and especially if the Giants defeat the Titans, Pittsburgh could make an argument. Carolina could potentially as well, but their loss to the Giants in the regular season kills their argument.
No Respect: The Arizona Cardinals (you know, the team that actually MADE THE SUPER BOWL) finished #14 in the rankings and in one poll (FOX) actually finished behind the 7-9 49ers. Only CBS had the Cardinals among the league's top 12 (good for them).
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
What I've compiled below is a list of the top 10 NFL teams based on a simple average of four major power polls (NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ESPN.com, and CBS Sportsline) and point differential (by rank). I would have included more polls for a better look at the poll distribution, but unfortunately many pollsters do not bother to release a poll after the season's final week. I've chosen the number 10 because that is the number of college football teams that earn bids to the BCS bowls, meaning they've qualified for the "major" bowls.
| Pt. Dif. | Pts. Rank | NBC Rank | FOX Rank | ESPN Rank | CBS Rank | Rank Ave. | Rank | ||
| Miami | 28 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10.4 | 10 | |
| New England | 101 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 8.4 | 8 | |
| NY Jets | 49 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16.2 | ||
| Buffalo | -6 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 22.6 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 124 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | 3 | |
| Baltimore | 141 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5.4 | 6 | |
| Cincinnati | -160 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 27.2 | ||
| Cleveland | -118 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29.2 | ||
| Tennessee | 141 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | |
| Indianapolis | 79 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | |
| Houston | -28 | 21 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17.4 | ||
| Jacksonville | -65 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 25.0 | ||
| San Diego | 92 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 11.4 | ||
| Denver | -78 | 25 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21.2 | ||
| Oakland | -125 | 28 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 26.6 | ||
| Kansas City | -149 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29.6 | ||
| NY Giants | 133 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | |
| Philadelphia | 127 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8.6 | 9 | |
| Dallas | -3 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 16.2 | ||
| Washington | -31 | 22 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 21.8 | ||
| Minnesota | 46 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.8 | ||
| Chicago | 25 | 17 | 22 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 17.2 | ||
| Green Bay | 39 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 21.0 | ||
| Detroit | -249 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32.0 | ||
| Carolina | 85 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4.6 | 4 | |
| Atlanta | 66 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7.6 | 7 | |
| Tampa Bay | 38 | 15 | 13 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 15.8 | ||
| New Orleans | 70 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 15.6 | ||
| Arizona | 1 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 15.6 | ||
| San Francisco | -42 | 22 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 20.0 | ||
| Seattle | -98 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 26.6 | ||
| St. Louis | -233 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30.6 |
The table given here is broken down by division, starting with the AFC East, North, South and West then the NFC East, North, South and West. Here's a breakdown of the results (site is based on the team with better locale or domed stadium):
BCS Bowl #1: #10 Miami Dolphins vs. #9 Philadelphia Eagles
Site: Miami, FL
Note: Although there would be intrigue in the Dolphins rematching the Patriots (they split the season series and the Patriots come in at #8 on the list), the selection committee would likely look to avoid such a matchup.
BCS Bowl #2: #8 New England Patriots vs. #7 Atlanta Falcons
Site: Atlanta, GA
Note: Matty Ice vs. Matt Cassel!
BCS Bowl #3: #6 Baltimore Ravens vs. #4 Carolina Panthers
Site: Charlotte, NC
Note: Continuing the AFC vs. NFC trend, this match pits two of the top rushing attacks in football.
BCS Bowl #4: #5 Indianapolis Colts vs. #3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Site: Indianapolis, IN
Note: Rematch of the Steelers stunning AFC Championship game upset of the #1 seeded Colts in the 2006 playoffs, the year the Steelers won the Super Bowl.
BCS Super Bowl: #2 New York Giants vs. #1 Tennessee Titans
Site: Tampa, FL (site of Super Bowl XLIII)
Note: The two best teams throughout the season, both finished no worse than #3 in any poll or the point differential ranking. Most would say the BCS got it right!
Biggest Whiner(s): The Vikings finish #11 and just .4 behind the #10 Dolphins. San Diego is left out as well at #12, just 1.0 behind the Miami. The two would likely meet in San Diego for an exhibition bowl. All teams with an 8-8 record or better face off in a "postseason" game.
Best Argument for Split Title: If the Steelers defeated the Colts, and especially if the Giants defeat the Titans, Pittsburgh could make an argument. Carolina could potentially as well, but their loss to the Giants in the regular season kills their argument.
No Respect: The Arizona Cardinals (you know, the team that actually MADE THE SUPER BOWL) finished #14 in the rankings and in one poll (FOX) actually finished behind the 7-9 49ers. Only CBS had the Cardinals among the league's top 12 (good for them).
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Homefield Advantage Returns... Finally
Just when we thought home-field advantage in the NFL was extinct, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals proved that there is still value in playing at home. The two teams each finished 2-0 at home in the playoffs and because of this will be meeting in Tampa in two weeks for the Super Bowl. After last week's home-field massacre, it's great to see some normalcy returning to the playoffs.
Yesterday will definitely go down as the best day of football in this postseason as both games offered equal parts drama and intrigue as the stakes were high and the play on the field was equal to the task. Let's break the games down one at a time.
NFC Championship Game
In the early game, the Cardinals raced out to yet another nice first half lead, 24-6 at the break (they led the Falcons 14-3 in the second quarter in round 1 and led the Panthers 27-7 at the half in round 2), before the Eagles defense kicked up the pressure in the second half. It seemed as though the Eagles had made the same mistake that the Panthers made the week prior, letting Larry Fitzgerald go unchecked and run either 1-on-1 or through a zone, and he responded with a three-TD first half. After the intermission, however, it looked as though Philadelphia really poured on the pressure on Kurt Warner, hitting him regularly and forcing hurried, inaccurate throws. This second half philosophy change clearly worked as the Eagles dominated time of possession in the third quarter and erased the big halftime deficit to take their first lead, 25-24, early in the fourth quarter.
Then the future Hall Of Famer stepped up (that's right, I said it). Kurt Warner (he of two NFL MVP awards and now three Super Bowl trips with two teams and at least one victory) led the Cards on a phenomenal 14-play, almost eight-minute drive to score the go-ahead touchdown and leave Donovan McNabb with just 2:53 to try to respond. Going into this game, I had said that if it came down to a final drive to win the game, I had more confidence in McNabb to accomplish the feat. Well, what I hadn't envisioned was the previously mentioned Arizona drive, which not only stopped the Eagles frantic comeback to give the home team the lead again, but also got the home crowd fired up after it had fallen into stunned silence when Philly took the lead. With the crowd roaring and the Cardinals defense fresh thanks to the long breather, McNabb (whose accuracy was off all day) struggled to get back into rhythm and the Eagles failed to move the ball with the game on the line, ending with a failed fourth down around midfield.
Am I surprised by the outcome of this one? After what I wrote last week, clearly I am not. This was certainly a plausible outcome for the game and it played out one of the best possible ways for both the viewer and the Cardinals. I have a hard time believing the Cards could have rallied from a big deficit the way the Eagles did, but it's obvious that they could survive the comeback attempt and come out victorious. It appears that the "Nobody Believes In Us!" sentiment outweighs the "Even If We Lose, We Had A Great Year" mentality, something that I wasn't quite able to account for accurately in my picks last week.
AFC Championship Game
The late game was exactly what I expected it to be. In cold, snowy weather, the defenses held a huge advantage, and when you put a veteran quarterback against a rookie quarterback in this situation, the result is the game we got. Baltimore's Joe Flacco, with the Ravens rushing attack struggling throughout, was barely, barely better than terrible yesterday, not really providing any real benefit to the Ravens offense and clearly hurting them in numerous instances, including the game-clinching TAINT in the fourth quarter. Ben Roethlisberger, however, had to deal with a very similarly poor running attack, yet provided numerous big plays with his arm and legs (his performance would have been even better if not for a couple of dropped passes and one that was questionably overturned(I'll discuss the overturned catch in a later post)) setting up the Steelers to score early and put the Ravens' backs against the wall.
Baltimore's offense never functioned well. The only reason they scored 14 points in the game was because of a long punt return by Jim Leonhard and an all-time atrocious punt by Mitch Berger, both giving the Ravens a short field. In a postseason where special teams have played such a critical role (particularly in the AFC), it's no surprise that special teams made a difference in this one. It turns out that difference was just to make the game artificially closer than it should have been. As well as the Ravens defense played, it's offense was equally poor for most of the contest.
Now to what I'm sure many of you are thinking (something I agree with, in fact): this game would have been a heck of a lot closer had the Ravens been healthy. There's no question this is true. The Ravens were beyond banged up and it showed from the start. Running back Le'Ron McClain was never able to make much of a contribution after being a big factor in the regular season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, all dinged up, were not themselves in the passing game and certainly added to Flacco's struggles. The Ravens secondary, particularly the corners, were a disaster; when Raiders castoff Fabian Washington is your number one corner in the AFC Championship game, you know you have issues. That's not to say the Steelers didn't have any injuries coming in, but they were definitely healthier. This will happen, though, when your team doesn't get a week off after week 2 (remember the Ravens regularly scheduled bye week was moved to week 2 when they were scheduled to play the Houston Texans but Hurricane Ike hit). Even completely healthy, though, I think the Steelers win this game.
In the end, the better team won in Pittsburgh, and the Ravens know that they will be very good for years to come if Flacco can continue to develop as a passer. Oh, and no one's saying today that he's not a rookie, are they?
I will break down the Super Bowl matchup later on this week.
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Yesterday will definitely go down as the best day of football in this postseason as both games offered equal parts drama and intrigue as the stakes were high and the play on the field was equal to the task. Let's break the games down one at a time.
NFC Championship Game
In the early game, the Cardinals raced out to yet another nice first half lead, 24-6 at the break (they led the Falcons 14-3 in the second quarter in round 1 and led the Panthers 27-7 at the half in round 2), before the Eagles defense kicked up the pressure in the second half. It seemed as though the Eagles had made the same mistake that the Panthers made the week prior, letting Larry Fitzgerald go unchecked and run either 1-on-1 or through a zone, and he responded with a three-TD first half. After the intermission, however, it looked as though Philadelphia really poured on the pressure on Kurt Warner, hitting him regularly and forcing hurried, inaccurate throws. This second half philosophy change clearly worked as the Eagles dominated time of possession in the third quarter and erased the big halftime deficit to take their first lead, 25-24, early in the fourth quarter.
Then the future Hall Of Famer stepped up (that's right, I said it). Kurt Warner (he of two NFL MVP awards and now three Super Bowl trips with two teams and at least one victory) led the Cards on a phenomenal 14-play, almost eight-minute drive to score the go-ahead touchdown and leave Donovan McNabb with just 2:53 to try to respond. Going into this game, I had said that if it came down to a final drive to win the game, I had more confidence in McNabb to accomplish the feat. Well, what I hadn't envisioned was the previously mentioned Arizona drive, which not only stopped the Eagles frantic comeback to give the home team the lead again, but also got the home crowd fired up after it had fallen into stunned silence when Philly took the lead. With the crowd roaring and the Cardinals defense fresh thanks to the long breather, McNabb (whose accuracy was off all day) struggled to get back into rhythm and the Eagles failed to move the ball with the game on the line, ending with a failed fourth down around midfield.
Am I surprised by the outcome of this one? After what I wrote last week, clearly I am not. This was certainly a plausible outcome for the game and it played out one of the best possible ways for both the viewer and the Cardinals. I have a hard time believing the Cards could have rallied from a big deficit the way the Eagles did, but it's obvious that they could survive the comeback attempt and come out victorious. It appears that the "Nobody Believes In Us!" sentiment outweighs the "Even If We Lose, We Had A Great Year" mentality, something that I wasn't quite able to account for accurately in my picks last week.
AFC Championship Game
The late game was exactly what I expected it to be. In cold, snowy weather, the defenses held a huge advantage, and when you put a veteran quarterback against a rookie quarterback in this situation, the result is the game we got. Baltimore's Joe Flacco, with the Ravens rushing attack struggling throughout, was barely, barely better than terrible yesterday, not really providing any real benefit to the Ravens offense and clearly hurting them in numerous instances, including the game-clinching TAINT in the fourth quarter. Ben Roethlisberger, however, had to deal with a very similarly poor running attack, yet provided numerous big plays with his arm and legs (his performance would have been even better if not for a couple of dropped passes and one that was questionably overturned(I'll discuss the overturned catch in a later post)) setting up the Steelers to score early and put the Ravens' backs against the wall.
Baltimore's offense never functioned well. The only reason they scored 14 points in the game was because of a long punt return by Jim Leonhard and an all-time atrocious punt by Mitch Berger, both giving the Ravens a short field. In a postseason where special teams have played such a critical role (particularly in the AFC), it's no surprise that special teams made a difference in this one. It turns out that difference was just to make the game artificially closer than it should have been. As well as the Ravens defense played, it's offense was equally poor for most of the contest.
Now to what I'm sure many of you are thinking (something I agree with, in fact): this game would have been a heck of a lot closer had the Ravens been healthy. There's no question this is true. The Ravens were beyond banged up and it showed from the start. Running back Le'Ron McClain was never able to make much of a contribution after being a big factor in the regular season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, all dinged up, were not themselves in the passing game and certainly added to Flacco's struggles. The Ravens secondary, particularly the corners, were a disaster; when Raiders castoff Fabian Washington is your number one corner in the AFC Championship game, you know you have issues. That's not to say the Steelers didn't have any injuries coming in, but they were definitely healthier. This will happen, though, when your team doesn't get a week off after week 2 (remember the Ravens regularly scheduled bye week was moved to week 2 when they were scheduled to play the Houston Texans but Hurricane Ike hit). Even completely healthy, though, I think the Steelers win this game.
In the end, the better team won in Pittsburgh, and the Ravens know that they will be very good for years to come if Flacco can continue to develop as a passer. Oh, and no one's saying today that he's not a rookie, are they?
I will break down the Super Bowl matchup later on this week.
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Conference Championships - Time To Step Up
It's taken me a full four days to fully recover from the NFL massacre that we (and by we, I mean my picks) took last weekend. I'll admit, it wasn't my finest hour as I mustered just 1-3 straight up and a powerful 0-4 against the spread. My only solace is the fact that I am not alone in my time of failure as sports experts and gamblers everywhere are feeling the wrath of what may have been the most shocking Divisional playoff round of all time. Not only were the home teams, that is two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, just 1-3 on the weekend(#2 seeded Pittsburgh won), but one (Carolina) was blown out, one (New York) played so passively they never stood a chance and one (Tennessee) thoroughly outplayed their opponent and yet lost anyway.
Now going into the Conference Championship weekend, I'm at a loss for what to pick. The Wild Card weekend was crazy enough, with 4 road favorites in 4 games and 2 rookie QBs favored in their games. Last week seemed like it would bring normalcy back to the league as all four home teams were favored and one was even favored by double digits (Carolina). Alas, the football gods chose to torment us once again as none of the games played out as anticipated. Even the game I picked correctly, Pittsburgh to defeat San Diego, saw a combined 59 points scored, the most of the weekend, despite bitter cold and snow throughout.
So how am I supposed to have any confidence picking this weekend's games? Basically, I'm not, so I'm going to go with my gut and hope, which is about all anyone can do at this point. As usual, the odds are provided by Yahoo! Sports, and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only. If I'm not willing to put money on my own picks, I can assure you that you shouldn't either.
Game 1 - Sunday, January 18th, 2:00 CST
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: There are four possible outcomes of any given NFL game: blowout win by one team or the other, or close win by one team or the other. It's pretty much as simple as that. For most games, one or two of these outcomes can be eliminated and as a bettor you are choosing what you deem to be a fifty-fifty proposition between the remaining two outcomes. Some games are even so obvious as to have one clear outcome in your mind. For example, last year the New England Patriots opened as a 14 point favorite to defeat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. My gut reaction to this line the very first time I heard it was to take the Giants to cover and I was very confident in that decision. Why? Because I had decided that of the four possible outcomes for that game, the only one that would truly floor me was for the Giants to win in a rout. The other three (Giants or Pats win close, Pats win big) all seemed well within the realm of possibility. Of those three options, only one would result in the Pats covering (Pats win big), so the clear choice was on the Giants to cover. I'm not saying I picked the G-Men to win outright, because I didn't, but I did think they'd keep it close enough, and I was right.
Why am I telling you all of this? Simply because this game blows that line of thinking completely out of the water. Of the four potential outcomes to the Eagles-Cardinals game, NONE would floor me. So let's break this pick down a little further. First, the most surprising result would probably have to be the Cards in a rout. Are they capable of this? Absolutely, and the Eagles certainly could collapse if enough bad things happen early on. But the Cards pretty thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in their Wild Card win, yet only won by 6, so I'm going to say they won't blow out the Eagles (even though they just blew out the Panthers...).
The second possibility is that of a close game either way. So which team would I pick in this situation? That's a very tough question. I've ragged on Andy Reid many times in this blog for his questionable decision-making in crucial game situations, but can I really give the edge to a head coach in his first playoffs as the head hancho (Ken Whisenhunt) over a guy that's coached in four previous Conference Championships and a Super Bowl? I'm leaning no. And as much as I love and respect Kurt Warner, I would certainly give the Eagles the upper hand in the event of any late game drives with the game on the line, largely because of the Eagles' defense. I think Warner and McNabb really compare very well to each other in the postseason (despite McNabb's history of, uh, struggling late in tight games). Also, I'll take David Akers for a crucial field goal attempt over anyone not named Vinatieri any day of the week.
So what about the Eagles in a rout? This seems like a very possible scenario (the Eagles blew out the Cards when the teams met Thanksgiving night in Philly) and if either team looks like they have "Just Glad We Got This Far" potential, it's the Cardinals. If things start to go wrong for the Cards, that psyched-up home crowd could absolutely turn in a hurry, and the game could get out of hand quickly. I don't trust the Cardinals offensive line with a deficit when the run is disregarded by the defense. With all this said, the pick is now clear as mud.
The Pick: Eagles to win and cover, 33-24.
Game 2 - Sunday, January 18th, 5:30 CST
Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Take: Going back to my previously described theory, this game follows the traditional path for an NFL game. Can Pittsbugh win in a rout? Yes. Could this game be won by either team close? Yes. Can Baltimore win in a rout? NO. Could I be completely wrong about that? Sure, but I'm guessing I'm not. Yes, anytime you get a great defense involved in a game, the potential for a rout exists (teams like to make things worse when way behind and forced to become one-dimensional against great defenses). That said, if this game were in Baltimore or the Ravens had a veteran QB, a rout might happen. But in a bad weather game with a rookie QB on the road, I just don't see Baltimore running away with it. Especially given the way Baltimore performed offensively in relatively mild weather against Tennessee last weekend.
This brings me to a side note. Can we please, PLEASE, stop with the "He's Not a Rookie Anymore" bull about Joe Flacco or any other guy that's played more than 10 games? HE IS STILL A ROOKIE! I don't care how mature he seems, or how well he "runs the offense;" he's still prone to all the same mistakes of any rookie and the offensive coordinator and head coach are still going to treat him with kid gloves when it comes to gameplanning. Until you get two full offseasons (and you could argue that with year-round training regimens, most rookies don't even get one full offseason before they start their first season), you are still a rookie. Period. Thanks for hearing me out on that. Now back to our normally scheduled program.
So Baltimore won't win in a rout. Pittsburgh could, but I do tend to find this unlikely given the way these teams' previous meetings went (Pittsburgh won both by a combined 7 points). So why is the line where it's at? Because Vegas wants to get more money in on the Baltimore side, but gamblers keep finding ways to assure themselves that Pittsburgh is better and better than Baltimore. Thus, the line grows and grows. The other reasoning is that Baltimore may fall prey to exactly what I described above: fall behind early, become one-dimensional, make things worse against a great defense. As much as it pains me to say it, this seems very possible. I thought veteran playoff quarterback Philip Rivers would handle the Steelers pressure well last week and the game would remain close. It did not. The difference this week, other than the rookie QB, is that Baltimore's running game is not banged up like San Diego's was, and the Ravens seem like they will be more committed to the run precisely because of that rookie QB.
The Pick: The first part of this pick feels like a no-brainer here (I know I'm tempting the football gods by saying that...), and that is Pittsburgh to win. As for the spread, ugh, I'm going to reluctantly take Baltimore to cover. Final: 17-13.
Last week: 0-4 vs. Spread, 1-3 Straight Up
Playoffs: 1-7 vs. Spread, 2-6 Straight Up
Feel free to share your take with me and the other readers by commenting below.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Now going into the Conference Championship weekend, I'm at a loss for what to pick. The Wild Card weekend was crazy enough, with 4 road favorites in 4 games and 2 rookie QBs favored in their games. Last week seemed like it would bring normalcy back to the league as all four home teams were favored and one was even favored by double digits (Carolina). Alas, the football gods chose to torment us once again as none of the games played out as anticipated. Even the game I picked correctly, Pittsburgh to defeat San Diego, saw a combined 59 points scored, the most of the weekend, despite bitter cold and snow throughout.
So how am I supposed to have any confidence picking this weekend's games? Basically, I'm not, so I'm going to go with my gut and hope, which is about all anyone can do at this point. As usual, the odds are provided by Yahoo! Sports, and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only. If I'm not willing to put money on my own picks, I can assure you that you shouldn't either.
Game 1 - Sunday, January 18th, 2:00 CST
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: There are four possible outcomes of any given NFL game: blowout win by one team or the other, or close win by one team or the other. It's pretty much as simple as that. For most games, one or two of these outcomes can be eliminated and as a bettor you are choosing what you deem to be a fifty-fifty proposition between the remaining two outcomes. Some games are even so obvious as to have one clear outcome in your mind. For example, last year the New England Patriots opened as a 14 point favorite to defeat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. My gut reaction to this line the very first time I heard it was to take the Giants to cover and I was very confident in that decision. Why? Because I had decided that of the four possible outcomes for that game, the only one that would truly floor me was for the Giants to win in a rout. The other three (Giants or Pats win close, Pats win big) all seemed well within the realm of possibility. Of those three options, only one would result in the Pats covering (Pats win big), so the clear choice was on the Giants to cover. I'm not saying I picked the G-Men to win outright, because I didn't, but I did think they'd keep it close enough, and I was right.
Why am I telling you all of this? Simply because this game blows that line of thinking completely out of the water. Of the four potential outcomes to the Eagles-Cardinals game, NONE would floor me. So let's break this pick down a little further. First, the most surprising result would probably have to be the Cards in a rout. Are they capable of this? Absolutely, and the Eagles certainly could collapse if enough bad things happen early on. But the Cards pretty thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in their Wild Card win, yet only won by 6, so I'm going to say they won't blow out the Eagles (even though they just blew out the Panthers...).
The second possibility is that of a close game either way. So which team would I pick in this situation? That's a very tough question. I've ragged on Andy Reid many times in this blog for his questionable decision-making in crucial game situations, but can I really give the edge to a head coach in his first playoffs as the head hancho (Ken Whisenhunt) over a guy that's coached in four previous Conference Championships and a Super Bowl? I'm leaning no. And as much as I love and respect Kurt Warner, I would certainly give the Eagles the upper hand in the event of any late game drives with the game on the line, largely because of the Eagles' defense. I think Warner and McNabb really compare very well to each other in the postseason (despite McNabb's history of, uh, struggling late in tight games). Also, I'll take David Akers for a crucial field goal attempt over anyone not named Vinatieri any day of the week.
So what about the Eagles in a rout? This seems like a very possible scenario (the Eagles blew out the Cards when the teams met Thanksgiving night in Philly) and if either team looks like they have "Just Glad We Got This Far" potential, it's the Cardinals. If things start to go wrong for the Cards, that psyched-up home crowd could absolutely turn in a hurry, and the game could get out of hand quickly. I don't trust the Cardinals offensive line with a deficit when the run is disregarded by the defense. With all this said, the pick is now clear as mud.
The Pick: Eagles to win and cover, 33-24.
Game 2 - Sunday, January 18th, 5:30 CST
Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Take: Going back to my previously described theory, this game follows the traditional path for an NFL game. Can Pittsbugh win in a rout? Yes. Could this game be won by either team close? Yes. Can Baltimore win in a rout? NO. Could I be completely wrong about that? Sure, but I'm guessing I'm not. Yes, anytime you get a great defense involved in a game, the potential for a rout exists (teams like to make things worse when way behind and forced to become one-dimensional against great defenses). That said, if this game were in Baltimore or the Ravens had a veteran QB, a rout might happen. But in a bad weather game with a rookie QB on the road, I just don't see Baltimore running away with it. Especially given the way Baltimore performed offensively in relatively mild weather against Tennessee last weekend.
This brings me to a side note. Can we please, PLEASE, stop with the "He's Not a Rookie Anymore" bull about Joe Flacco or any other guy that's played more than 10 games? HE IS STILL A ROOKIE! I don't care how mature he seems, or how well he "runs the offense;" he's still prone to all the same mistakes of any rookie and the offensive coordinator and head coach are still going to treat him with kid gloves when it comes to gameplanning. Until you get two full offseasons (and you could argue that with year-round training regimens, most rookies don't even get one full offseason before they start their first season), you are still a rookie. Period. Thanks for hearing me out on that. Now back to our normally scheduled program.
So Baltimore won't win in a rout. Pittsburgh could, but I do tend to find this unlikely given the way these teams' previous meetings went (Pittsburgh won both by a combined 7 points). So why is the line where it's at? Because Vegas wants to get more money in on the Baltimore side, but gamblers keep finding ways to assure themselves that Pittsburgh is better and better than Baltimore. Thus, the line grows and grows. The other reasoning is that Baltimore may fall prey to exactly what I described above: fall behind early, become one-dimensional, make things worse against a great defense. As much as it pains me to say it, this seems very possible. I thought veteran playoff quarterback Philip Rivers would handle the Steelers pressure well last week and the game would remain close. It did not. The difference this week, other than the rookie QB, is that Baltimore's running game is not banged up like San Diego's was, and the Ravens seem like they will be more committed to the run precisely because of that rookie QB.
The Pick: The first part of this pick feels like a no-brainer here (I know I'm tempting the football gods by saying that...), and that is Pittsburgh to win. As for the spread, ugh, I'm going to reluctantly take Baltimore to cover. Final: 17-13.
Last week: 0-4 vs. Spread, 1-3 Straight Up
Playoffs: 1-7 vs. Spread, 2-6 Straight Up
Feel free to share your take with me and the other readers by commenting below.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Coaching Moves Continue
The NFL news continues to pile up this week as most teams start their offseason while the fortunate four prepare for conference championship weekend. The biggest news has to be the resignation/retirement of Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy. This didn't necessarily come as a huge shock as Dungy had intimated before the season that this could very well be his final run; he had even gone so far as to name a successor. The Colts followed through with the promise to name Jim Caldwell, the Colts' quarterbacks coach for the past several years, as the new head coach despite some of the big names available.
The other big news is the filling of arguably the most high-profile coaching job opening in the league. With the Broncos naming former Patriots' offensive coordinator (and recent high school graduate, or so I'm told) Josh McDaniels as their new head coach, the number of coaching vacancies has dropped to three, although there remains the possibility that the Chiefs will let Herm Edwards go. This became an even greater possibility, even a likelihood, with the Chiefs hiring of Scott Pioli as general manager. Pioli is another former Patriot, meaning that the Patriots are having an impact on almost half of the league in one way or another. Whether this is for the best remains to be seen.
Looking at the history of Bill Belichick alum, success has been hard to come by. The most recent Belichick coaches have been mediocre at best. The first to leave the nest, former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, have found significant difficulty in their time as head men. Weis had a great start at Notre Dame four years ago making a BCS bowl in his first season (with star quarterback Brady Quinn leading the Irish), but Notre Dame lost that bowl game in a rout and has been in decline since, even going just 3-9 in 2007 before "bouncing back" to 7-6 last year. Although Weis signed a 10-year contract extension after that first successful season, Irish boosters were still willing to put together the $10 million+ that it would take to buy him out (read: fire him). This hasn't happened... yet.
For Crennel, the success didn't come until his third year as Cleveland Browns head coach. With quarterback issues plaguing the team in its first two years, the Browns rode a great season (resulting in a Pro Bowl) by QB Derek Anderson to a 10-6 record in 2007, yet the brutal AFC prevented the Browns from making the playoffs. This also happened to be a contract year for the third year pro Anderson, meaning the Browns were forced to commit significant money to a one-year wonder in case he carried that 2007 season into a quality career. Signs point to no on that, although Anderson suffered multiple injuries in 2008 and the Browns back-slid with a 6-10 record and Crennel is gone.
The third Belichick disciple to leave was Eric Mangini, who had replaced Crennel as Pats defensive coordinator in 2005. In 2006, Mangini took over the Patriots' division rival New York Jets when the aforementioned Herm Edwards was fired, and Mangini found immediate success making the playoffs in his first season. The following two years were tumultuous, however, as the Jets went 4-12 in 2007 due to quarterback Chad Pennington's season-long battle with shoulder injuries and followed that up with the Year of Favre in 2008. This season the Jets started out extremely well with much fanfare after the trade for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, but as the year dragged on and the weather grew colder and more unpredictable, so did Favre. The Jets offense lost its ability to move the ball consistently and the defense wasn't good enough to make up for it, leading the Jets to finish a disappointing 9-7 and fail to make the playoffs, costing Mangini his job.
Mangini bounced back quickly, landing the Browns job from Crennel, but the fact remains that Bill Belichick's coaching tree, while large in number, has yet to find significant success outside of Massachusetts. Does this mean McDaniels and Mangini will fail, or that Weis and the Irish will not rebound, or that Crennel should be out of football? Of course not. At least I hope not as a Broncos fan. It just means that not all great coaches produce other great coaches, and not all great assistants become quality head coaches (just ask Cam Cameron).
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
The other big news is the filling of arguably the most high-profile coaching job opening in the league. With the Broncos naming former Patriots' offensive coordinator (and recent high school graduate, or so I'm told) Josh McDaniels as their new head coach, the number of coaching vacancies has dropped to three, although there remains the possibility that the Chiefs will let Herm Edwards go. This became an even greater possibility, even a likelihood, with the Chiefs hiring of Scott Pioli as general manager. Pioli is another former Patriot, meaning that the Patriots are having an impact on almost half of the league in one way or another. Whether this is for the best remains to be seen.
Looking at the history of Bill Belichick alum, success has been hard to come by. The most recent Belichick coaches have been mediocre at best. The first to leave the nest, former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, have found significant difficulty in their time as head men. Weis had a great start at Notre Dame four years ago making a BCS bowl in his first season (with star quarterback Brady Quinn leading the Irish), but Notre Dame lost that bowl game in a rout and has been in decline since, even going just 3-9 in 2007 before "bouncing back" to 7-6 last year. Although Weis signed a 10-year contract extension after that first successful season, Irish boosters were still willing to put together the $10 million+ that it would take to buy him out (read: fire him). This hasn't happened... yet.
For Crennel, the success didn't come until his third year as Cleveland Browns head coach. With quarterback issues plaguing the team in its first two years, the Browns rode a great season (resulting in a Pro Bowl) by QB Derek Anderson to a 10-6 record in 2007, yet the brutal AFC prevented the Browns from making the playoffs. This also happened to be a contract year for the third year pro Anderson, meaning the Browns were forced to commit significant money to a one-year wonder in case he carried that 2007 season into a quality career. Signs point to no on that, although Anderson suffered multiple injuries in 2008 and the Browns back-slid with a 6-10 record and Crennel is gone.
The third Belichick disciple to leave was Eric Mangini, who had replaced Crennel as Pats defensive coordinator in 2005. In 2006, Mangini took over the Patriots' division rival New York Jets when the aforementioned Herm Edwards was fired, and Mangini found immediate success making the playoffs in his first season. The following two years were tumultuous, however, as the Jets went 4-12 in 2007 due to quarterback Chad Pennington's season-long battle with shoulder injuries and followed that up with the Year of Favre in 2008. This season the Jets started out extremely well with much fanfare after the trade for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, but as the year dragged on and the weather grew colder and more unpredictable, so did Favre. The Jets offense lost its ability to move the ball consistently and the defense wasn't good enough to make up for it, leading the Jets to finish a disappointing 9-7 and fail to make the playoffs, costing Mangini his job.
Mangini bounced back quickly, landing the Browns job from Crennel, but the fact remains that Bill Belichick's coaching tree, while large in number, has yet to find significant success outside of Massachusetts. Does this mean McDaniels and Mangini will fail, or that Weis and the Irish will not rebound, or that Crennel should be out of football? Of course not. At least I hope not as a Broncos fan. It just means that not all great coaches produce other great coaches, and not all great assistants become quality head coaches (just ask Cam Cameron).
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
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