So since this blog has practically turned into a football blog, I decided what better time to return to the blogosphere than with a post following along with the NFL Draft, the most over-hyped event in all of sports? No better time, I say! So here we go.
First things first, my take on the Broncos/Jay Cutler fiasco: Oh, well. At first I was totally mind-boggled by the Broncos' decision to pursue Matt Cassel when they already had a Pro Bowl QB (not that this says much since it's just a popularity contest decided too far before the season ends), but as the situation moved on and Josh McDaniels made little effort to bring Cutler into the fold, it looked more and more like he wanted Cutler gone from the beginning. Now, with Cutler traded for a very healthy ransom (2 first round picks and Kyle Orton from the Bears, in case you somehow didn't know), I have to say that I'm not too upset about the way things turn out. Now the question is, what do the Broncos do with those picks in this draft to try to get the proud franchise back on its feet? Hopefully, the answer is draft defense, defense and more defense. If we must have Orton at QB to start the year, so be it.
As we go along, a fun storyline will be the fall of Mark Sanchez, the USC QB. After what we saw with Brady Quinn two years ago and Aaron Rodgers a couple years before that, Sanchez could have a long day if he slips passed the Seahawks at 4 or the Browns at 5.
#1 overall pick - The Lions sign QB Matthew Stafford the night before the draft, taking away some of the suspense in this pick. Regardless, I'm not a huge fan of the decision because I don't think all that much of Stafford (he didn't accomplish much in college and left early) and he's going to a very bad situation (first-time head coach with a defensive background, and no good offensive line). If he succeeds, good for him. If not, count me not surprised. ESPN Coverage Note: Thanks for the crack commentary, Keyshawn! In analyzing this pick, he says "The Lions haven't had a winning season in I don't know how long..." Really? You couldn't even be bothered to do research for the first pick in the draft? What will you contribute as the day goes on?
#2 overall pick - The Rams don't surprise anyone by taking OT Jason Smith from Baylor, a replacement for their long-time LT Orlando Pace whom they released this offseason because of his injury issues and age. A little Mark Sanchez chatter for the Rams here, but they have too much invested in Marc Bulger and there is a chance that with a new coach and a rebuilt o-line, Bulger may be able to play decently again someday.
#3 overall pick - The Chiefs pick DE Tyson Jackson to replace Jared Allen who they gave away in a trade last offseason. Good pick, but one they shouldn't have had to make if they didn't blow the Allen situation. Sanchez now on the clock...
#4 overall pick - With Julian Peterson gone, the Seahawks get possibly the only can't miss player of the draft, LB Aaron Curry out of Wake. I like the pick and I think he has defensive rookie of the year written all over him. Sanchez easily could have gone here, but evidently Seattle is not quite ready to get Matt Hasselbeck's replacement at QB.
#5 overall pick - First trade of the day and it's a biggy. The Browns trade with the Jets and New York snags Sanchez, ending the drama very early in the day. This is a great pickup for New York (assuming Sanchez isn't a one-year wonder from USC...) and they will have a shiny new franchise QB to go along with their shiny new stadium this year. The Browns get the Jets first and second round picks, and a collection of no-names from the Jets in return. So the question now becomes, will Sanchez be the next Carson Palmer (whose NFL career is still little better than OK) or the next Matt Leinart/Todd Marinavich, a pair of USC 1st round QBs that failed. Or maybe his inexperience at USC will make him the next Matt Cassel (then again, if it takes him 3 years to get ready, he'll be run out of New York). Should be fun to watch.
#6 overall pick - Amazing. The Bengals take the top player with major character issues. Wow. I guess this shouldn't come as a shock, but you just wonder if this franchise is ever going to learn. I hope Andre Smith doesn't have off-field problems and helps the Bengals improve, but I just don't understand the pick when a guy like Eugene Monroe, a tackle without character issues, is on the board also. Smith will really be under the microscope now, so he'd better tread lightly over the next year or two.
#7 overall pick - Wow again. Al Davis does it again. The man that's addicted to speed (um, maybe I should rephrase that...) chooses the fastest receiver in the draft, Darrius Heyward-Bey. Instead of taking a solid player that could contribute to a young team, the Raiders take a raw receiver with good tools but without the big-game experience and without the skills to contribute early. This is an awful pick (as Kiper and McShay agree), but sadly not a big surprise that Davis would reach. Herm Edwards takes credit for the pick, so that should tell you just how bad it was. This guy has Troy Williamson (read: bust) written all over him. Beware the workout warriors that wow at the Combine but not on the field in college.
#8 overall pick - The Jags don't make the sexy pick (WR Michael Crabtree) but instead pick Monroe, the OT that will help shore up a very poor offensive line from last year. Looks like a solid pick, although it may not excite the fan base. Now, however, the Crabtree watch begins as the top-5 caliber player has begun to slip and who knows where he may land. Jacksonville seemed like it might be as low as he'd go, but now the bottom may be falling out.
#9 overall pick - ESPN ruins the drama again by showing the player at his home celebrating before the pick is announced (honestly, I hate this. I'd rather the commissioner announce all the first round picks to improve the suspense more. Enough of ESPN patting itself on the back by breaking the story 45 seconds before the pick's announced.). DT BJ Raji, a player I would love to see in Denver, goes to Green Bay to give them a strong inside force on defense. From everything I've heard, Raji is far and away the best DT in the draft, and it's a position a lot of teams needed, so I wonder a bit why he fell as far as he did.
#10 overall pick - Well, the Crabtree watch doesn't last too long as the offensively-challenged Niners take the big Texas Tech wideout at #10. I like the pick, and even though their QB situation isn't too hot, the Niners needed to get a talented weapon at WR to complement RB Frank Gore and TE Vernon Davis and now they should be able to score much better in a weak defensive division.
#11 overall pick - Yet another spoiler alert from ESPN as the start discussing the pick 2 minutes before it's announced, and I still hate it. The Bills take Aaron Maybin, a one-year wonder at Penn State that came out as a redshirt sophomore and should add a pass rusher to the Bills d-line. I'm not necessarily sold on Maybin and frankly I'm glad he didn't end up with Denver (again, I'm not a big fan of guys that only had one good year in college and then came out early). Speaking of Denver, Broncos pick #1 now on the clock...
#12 overall pick - Hmmm, well, the Broncos break the Mike Shanahan mold immediately by taking a RB with their top pick, Knowshon Moreno out of Georgia. I'm okay with this pick because he is clearly the top RB in the draft, but again my concern is that, as just a two-year player at Georgia, does he have the experience to be a great player quickly. On the other hand, RB is a position that tends to convert well to the NFL from college, so if Moreno stays healthy he could easily contribute as a rookie. I will be downright shocked if the Broncos pick another offensive player today (2 more picks).
#13 overall pick - The Redskins get a guy that the Broncos probably should have taken, DE Brian Orakpo. This is a classic Redskins move as they pounce on the best on board guy (taking less than a minute to announce the pick, giving ESPN no time to screw us out of the drama), taking the sexy pick and bringing in the big name. I like the pick, and he should help their team very early on. This Redskins team could be a solid team if they can get good play out of Jason Campbell and some of their draft picks from the last two years.
#14 overall pick - Good pick by the Saints as they take DB Malcolm Jenkins out of Ohio State. ESPN tried to ruin it with any early camera shot of Jenkins, but props to Jenkins for having a solid poker face and not really giving anything away. Jenkins could have been a top 10 pick last year if he had come out, but he returned to school to try to win a championship (obviously didn't work out as planned) and may have cost himself some money. Still, he provides a lot of talent for a very bad New Orleans secondary.
#15 overall pick - Huge choice here for the Texans as this is a make or break year for Gary Kubiak in Houston. The Texans take LB Brian Cushing from USC and I think this is a good pick. I liked all three USC LBs and, while I think Rey Maualuga was the best, Cushing will be a very good complement to Xavier Adibi on the outside with Pro Bowler DeMeco Ryans in the middle. Very good young corps for Houston and hopefully this will give them the defensive presence to finally compete for a playoff spot.
#16 overall pick - Whoa, the Chargers come out of nowhere to select LB Larry English, a pass-rusher that should help out with pressure along with Shawne Merriman. I'm not sure this is the best pick they could have made, but supposedly they are so overflowing with talent (according to Chris Berman) that they could make a luxury pick. Honestly, I think the Chargers "talent" is overrated, but they are still a good team and their defense was definitely a weakness last year and this pick should help.
#17 overall pick - Browns move down again as the Bucs this time move up to take the spot (possibly vying for a defensive player or QB Josh Freeman they think the Broncos were coveting). And sure enough, Freeman is the pick (clearly the third best QB in the draft with a dramatic dropoff after him) and the Bucs will start the Raheem Morris era with a new QB. This seems like a good pick, although the concerns about Freeman's consistency could be a problem for a team that relies on its defense to win (turnovers by the offense tend to sabotage good defense). We shall see how Freeman progresses.
#18 overall pick - Good insight from Ed Werder at Broncos HQ as he spells out the Broncos pick, DE Robert Ayers from Tennessee. Evidently the Broncos believe Ayers has a great deal of versatility as a DE/LB or even DT, making him an easy pick. As for Moreno, the Broncos believe that he will be a great, durable back that will make the offense better and really help Orton or Chris Simms at QB. I'm not going to argue with this logic, and I certainly hope it's right. Meanwhile, Steve Young continues to cry foul about the Broncos' handling of the Cutler (hard to argue with) and their seeming lack of a backup plan with Cutler gone. While this is certainly true, I do still wonder just how good Cutler will be or would have been as his win-loss record (a little overrated for QBs, but can still tell you something) was only average in his first 2-1/2 years and he hadn't been on a winning team since high school. Let's just say I won't be rooting for Cutler to succeed in Chicago.
#19 overall pick - The Browns trade down yet again, this time allowing the Eagles to jump up and pick WR Jeremy Maclin out of Mizzou. Many mock drafts I saw had Maclin going as high as #7 to Oakland, so this seems to be a good value pick for Philly and I think is a solid pick to combo him with DeSean Jackson as targets for Donovan McNabb. The concern, as voiced by the analysts on ESPN, is that Maclin is a very similar to Jackson and the Eagles could have used the pick to trade for a proven receiver in Anquan Boldin instead of taking a chance on a rookie. Still, if the Eagles really valued Maclin's return ability, then this could be a good pick. It just means the Eagles will be small at wideout.
#20 overall pick - The Lions stay on the offensive side of the ball with their second pick, adding TE Brandon Pettigrew to give Stafford more weapons on offense. I like this pick as the TE can be the QBs best friend, especially when the team has a poor o-line. Good pick and clear evidence that Matt Millen is finally gone.
#21 overall pick - The Browns finally make a pick! And it's... Alex Mack? A center? Okey-doke. Seems like an interesting pick (remember Mangini took center Nick Mangold in the first round when with the Jets, so maybe he values the position). It's just not the kind of pick that can rally a fan base, but it could help their o-line and therefore help QBs Quinn and Anderson be more productive.
#22 overall pick - Wow, the Vikings make a surprising pick of Percy Harvin, a WR/returner/RB that could be a versatile part of an offense, or could be a big time bust. Harvin has some off-field issues (tested positive for pot at the Combine) and is undersized for a wideout in the NFL. The big wonder is whether Harvin can really be a productive pro with more college-style skill set. I hope this works out well for Minnesota, but I think this is a pretty risky choice.
#23 overall pick - This Pats pick leads me to a topic that came up this offseason. The NFL has finally changed the draft order rules so now a team's postseason results actually impact their draft order. It is absolutely ridiculous that the Pats, who were 11-5 yet missed the playoffs, are picking seven spots lower than the Chargers, who not only made the playoffs but even won a playoff game. Next year, this will not be the case. As for this year, the Pats trade the pick to the Ravens who use it on OL Michael Oher out of Ole Miss. ESPN is playing up the backstory angle of this pick as Oher was evidently homeless as a young man but has found his way to riches in the NFL. It was cool to hear him say that he could have "went in the seventh round" and he wouldn't have cared, and that he's sure he'll play 10+ years. Sounds like a great guy to have. Another interesting story is that Oher could have been a top 10 or even top 5 pick if he had come out last year, and knowing his history it's amazing that he didn't but instead stayed in school like so many guys should. Easy to root for this guy to succeed in Baltimore.
#24 overall pick - Falcons snap up DT Peria Jerry, a pass-rushing tackle and I'd say a pretty solid pick. This is a team that needed a little help on the d-line, and Jerry should take some pressure off of John Abraham to get pressure on the QB for Atlanta.
#25 overall pick - The Dolphins make a rather unsurprising pick, taking the best corner in the draft Vontae Davis out of Illinois. This is a Miami team that really needed help in the secondary, and Davis should help immediately. Also, and this is a big plus, Mel Kiper is very impressed with his chiseled upper body. So, there is that.
Side note - Other than the Raiders, it's really starting to look like mock drafts are getting better and better at projecting the picks. It really doesn't feel like there are many surprises in this first round, and maybe this is because there are new mock drafts released every 7 minutes in the U.S., but it might be that people are finally starting to figure out what NFL teams are looking for in the draft and projecting more accurately. Then again, maybe NFL teams are using mock drafts to do their research for the draft. Who knows.
#26 overall pick - Pats follow the Browns lead and trade their pick again, opening the door for the Packers to select USC LB #2, Clay Matthews. Matthews seems like just the kind of guy that will fit with the blue collar mentality in Green Bay, and I think he'll work well with Packers MLB AJ Hawk and Kiper seems to think he may play some DE as well, lining up opposite Aaron Kampman. Looks like a good pick.
#27 overall pick - Very odd pick here as the Colts pick Donald Brown, a RB out of UConn. I guess this means the Colts don't think Joseph Addai can carry the load himself. Certainly I'll grant that most NFL teams need at least 2 solid back and Addai did get banged up some last year, but it also seems to me that the Colts could have found a fine back later in the draft and addressed their defense with this pick. Regardless, Brown should be a good player in the pros and it should help Addai stay healthy all year.
#28 overall pick - Bills are another team that's quick to pick, and they take an offensive lineman, but not a tackle to replace the man they traded away for this pick, instead they take a center. Sure, if they believe that Eric Wood is the best lineman on the board, then more power to them, but it just surprises me to see multiple centers go in the first round (and Kiper thinks a third could go as well). Still not sure what Buffalo is going to do at tackle this season...
#29 overall pick - No surprise for the Giants pick here as they take Hakeem Nicks, a WR out of North Carolina. Nicks is known as the best big wideout in this class which is precisely what the G-men need to replace the released Plaxico Burress. I like this pick a lot and I agree with the ESPN talking heads that think Nicks will be an immediate impact player in the NFL. I watched him play a few times this year and came away impressed each time.
#30 overall pick - Once again the Titans making a surprising pick, taking WR Kenny Britt out of Rutgers. ESPN pulled a little head-fake on this one as they show us Chris Wells laughing and smiling on the phone and even having McShay break down Wells, only to find out the Titans pick Britt. Almost makes me think the Titans were watching the draft coverage and decided to pull a fast one on the ESPN producers (major props to them if this is true). Either way, it's about time the Titans finally spent a decent draft pick on a WR and Britt sounds like he should be a solid addition. He lacks great hands, but has size and speed and could be a good option for Kerry Collins, although I don't expect too much in his rookie year.
#31 overall pick - Sure enough, it was probably the Cardinals on the phone with Wells as the RB goes here and will be the back to replace Edgerrin James in Arizona. Seems like a good choice and no matter how productive he is in Arizona, Wells will have to be an upgrade over their running game last year. Durability questions are the biggest concern with Wells, and we'll have to see if that continues in the pros. If not, the Cards may have gotten a real steal.
#32 overall pick - The Steelers make a pick of DT Ziggy Hood out of Mizzou, a player I know very little about. It's hard to ever doubt this organization's defensive draft picks, though, given their track record, so I'm guessing this was a good pick. The big thing to note is the sheer volume of defensive linemen (and linemen in general) taken in this first round. Looks like teams are really starting to believe that games are won in the trenches.
With that, I will be doing fewer posts for the second round, and later on this week I will try to post my thoughts on the overall drafts of some of my favorite teams. I won't pretend to know enough about every player to grade teams, and for this reason I won't go through every team's draft, but if you want my thoughts on anyone's draft, post a comment or email me and I'll write a post on them. Now, on to the second round.
#33 overall pick - Berman drops a Bob Sanders comparison on us with the Lions pick of S Louis Delmas. Pretty high standard to live up to.
#35 overall pick - Rams pick up James Laurinaitis, LB out of Ohio State and a guy like Jenkins that came back for a senior year and may have cost himself some money. Laurinaitis was a mid-first projected player last year but decided not to leave early, and now he falls into the early second.
During a side segment, McShay and Kiper rip on the Raiders some more for reaching for DH-B at #7, saying it was the biggest reach in the first round. Hard to argue with that assessment.
#37 overall pick - Broncos give up a first rounder next year to pick up this pick from the Seahawks. With the Broncos up again, I'm expecting another defensive player to come off the board and sure enough, the Broncos go D but they surprise me by taking CB Alphonso Smith. I guess this will be the replacement for Dre Bly to play opposite Champ Bailey at corner, and most analysts seem to be touting Smith as a playmaker in the secondary, something Denver has really been lacking the last 2 years.
#38 overall pick - The Bengals get a steal (in my opinion) picking up USC LB Rey Maualuga early in the second. I think Rey got a bad rap for supposedly having a lack of discipline on the field (not playing within the system) and having short arms, but I think this guy is a very good playmaker and will really make an impact for Cincy, one of the worst defenses in the league last year.
#39 overall pick - The Jags wisely add more o-line depth, picking up Eben Britton who was a potential first rounder.
#40 overall pick - Pats trade with the Raiders to get another 2nd round pick. Pats then have consecutive picks, giving them 10 minutes to make 2 picks instead of the usual 5 for 1. Not surprisingly, the Pats use both picks on defense. Here's my questions: which of those guys gets paid more? I mean, couldn't they argue to be paid the same since it was really just the Pats choice which one went first? Their agents may have a field day with this one.
#44 overall pick - Shocking development as Miami take QB Pat White (who may play WR in the NFL) in the second round. This seems like a very odd choice, although the Phins may be looking at White as the optimal Wildcat-type player for them. Regardless, this seems very early for a guy like this.
#46 overall pick - The Texans jump at the plumeting Connor Barwin, a LB/DE player that has been expected to go for at least 10-15 picks now. Great pick and hopefully this will give the Texans the pass rusher they need opposite of Mario Williams.
#47 overall pick - The Raiders "reach" (that term may even be generous) for an unknown S that Kiper had ranked at #73 at his position. What the hell, Al?
#48 overall pick - The Broncos make another pick on defense, adding S Darcel McBath out of Texas Tech. Not exactly a household name either, but certainly less of a reach than the Raiders had.
#50 overall pick - The Browns take their second WR of the round, which makes me start to wonder if Braylon Edwards is indeed on the trading block as has been rumored.
#53 overall pick - Interesting to see LeSean McCoy move accross the state and end up in Philadelphia after leaving Pittsburgh early. This is a player that may have cost himself money by coming out early instead of waiting another year.
#64 overall pick - In classic Shanahan fashion, the Broncos steal the headline and make the final pick of the first day. Denver jumps up to #64 to take blocking-oriented TE Richard Quinn from North Carolina. Possibly this is an indication that Tony Scheffler, upset by the Cutler saga, may be on the way out. Another possibility is that Daniel Graham, a more expensive blocking TE, may be out soon instead. Either way, a little peculiar for the Broncos to trade up for a guy like this.
Well, nothing else exciting to report in round 2. I will not be going to distance with this draft because, frankly, who cares? The third round is the only one of any real interest and even then it is a reach to try to evaluate the players at this point, so as I said before I will simply take a look at a few teams complete drafts later on, but not the whole league. Hope you enjoyed or maybe learned something because I did.
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Showing posts with label nfl draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl draft. Show all posts
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Response: NFL Tanking
On January 26th, I wrote an article examining the question of why NFL teams don't intentionally lose games (i.e. tank) in order to improve their draft position. One of my readers, Hunter, put together a very long, thought-out response to this post so I've decided so take another look at the topic by revisiting Hunter's comment.
First, a quick refresher on my 7.5 reasons why NFL teams don't tank:
I think the entry does a good job of catching all the reasons why NFL teams generally do not tank. I believe the main reasons why NFL teams don't tank are #4 and #5, while #6 and #7 are still true, just to a lesser extent. (But?...)
I think the entry also lists things that actually AREN'T reasons why NFL teams choose not to tank, namely #s 1 and 2. #3 I have mixed feelings about. (The hell you say! Let's see if this pans out...)
Way-too-in-depth analysis follows! :) (This is true. So far so good.)
#4 (Coaches protecting their job) - Definitely keeps teams from tanking. The coach can choose to have the team tank, to help it build for the future. But he would probably only be willing to do this if the ownership guaranteed him job security first. You don't want to tank, let everyone see that the team "quit on you" and then get fired. That'll make it tough to find a new coaching gig. Since tanking is "taboo" the franchise/front office can't just come right out and tell the fans "we're tanking for draft position." So the coach has to believe that the ownership will keep him on-board despite any pressure from fans who are calling for his head. But since the coaches have salaries that are so large they demand results (as mentioned in an earlier blog post) that pressure may be pretty intense. The fans are used to throwing the coach under the bus whenever the team doesn't win.
(The only reason that tanking is "taboo" is because it actually can have a great impact on the competitive balance of the league. This is what the league's front office is concerned with, and this is the reason that teams are not "allowed" to tank. As you mentioned, coaches would be killed by the fan base if they tanked without coming out and saying it, and they would be killed by the league if they did acknowledge tanking. The other important consideration here, especially with the NFL, is the gambling ramifications of a tanking team. How can oddsmakers ever properly handicap a game in which one team is outright trying to lose? What if both teams are tanking? What about your fantasy implications?!? The horror!)
#5 (Players protecting their place in the league) - Also definitely keeps teams from tanking. If the player helps his team tank to build for the future, he too needs a guarantee that he'll still be around to reap the rewards. If the tanking team lets him go, and he has not been showcasing his talent because he was helping the team lose, it's going to be bad for his career. But as the owner or general manager, you can't possibly guarantee all your players that they will be back. After all, if all your players were the right guys to have on the team, you probably wouldn't need to tank and build for the future, right? So you can't promise them all a job, and anyone you don't promise a job to is going to be playing their heart out no matter what the coach says, so they can find a spot with another team next year. That's bound to mess up the tanking.
(While I agree this is important (I included it, so it must be!), I don't think this is as important as Hunter thinks. The fact is, a team can outwardly tank even if it's players all play hard, as long as those players are bad. Thus, the team can play backups/young players instead of their "stars", and they could even assure those stars that they will be back the next year (if they want to be after being benched...). So yes the players will play hard, but the team can easily still lose. It's simply up to the coach and front office to convince the better players that they will be rewarded in the future for their patience. Plus, those star players that the team ensures will return then could play intentionally poorly if they knew their jobs were safe. They can all just follow Braylon Edwards's example.)
#6 (Pride/rivalries) - Yep. Inevitably there will be a few guys who simply cannot lose on purpose because it is against their nature. 6a definitely contributes because again, tanking is "taboo" so you can't just tell the fans that's what you're doing and expect them to understand. Some fans WILL think that beating your rivals will salvage an otherwise disappointing season, but every game you win against a hated rival is still hurting your tanking strategy.
(My point exactly. The fan base expects the players to play all-out, and players that have pride in their play, or those seeking records, Pro Bowls, etc., will all try hard if they're put on the field. Plus, fans hate losing to rivals, and I think many fans would even irrationally be upset by losing to a rival, even if losing meant getting a great draft pick. Fan is short for fanatic, they say.)
#7 (Competitive balance) - This one is still true, but a bit more abstract. The coaches and players won't necessarily feel a strong obligation to "competitive balance." They might not care too much about whether the "right teams" were in the playoffs, if it helps THEIR team improve. So the pressure to maintain the "competitive balance" has to come from the owners and (most of all) the league itself. And it does. The owners and the league office have a large hand in making sure that tanking continues to be "taboo." If the fans know their team is tanking, they may think it's a bad thing (against the competitive spirit of the game) or they may think it's a GREAT thing (gives my team its best chance of having success later) but either way, they aren't going to want to SHOW UP to the games WHILE the team is intentionally tanking. That hits the owners in the pocketbook, and worse yet, looks very bad for the league. So the pressure stays on: This is still a business, and we've still got to sell tickets, so make sure you give your fans a reason to keep thinking the team might give them something to cheer about if they come to a game.
(I think I'm flattered that he called my writing "abstract." That seems like a compliment. Maybe. Anyways, this is what I mentioned above. The concept of competitive balance is meaningless to the individual teams if they know that losing is their best course of action. But for the owners, it's even worse that Hunter made it sound. Not only does poor attendance hurt them because of lower ticket revenue, but if they fail to sell out, their home games will be blacked out in the local market, and as we all should know by now, NFL teams make more money off of television revenue than anything else. Additionally, a team tanking this season tells the fan base that they are capable of tanking any time, and this could severely deter fans from purchasing season tickets if they know their team may give up halfway through the season. And finally, as he said and I mentioned above, the league front office has many reasons why it wants tanking to be taboo. From television revenue lost (networks won't pay as much for t.v. rights if they think some late-season games will be thrown, in essence) to gambling concerns (why do you think the NFL is #1 in the U.S. right now, really?) to fantasy football concerns (a vast industry that is growing rapidly), the NFL simply can't afford to let people think certain games aren't being played to win (cue the Herm Edwards quote).)
#3 (Lower value of individual players) - Okay, the value of each player to the team is less in the NFL, compared to the NHL, the NBA, or in MLB. But that's not because of some mystical quality that makes football "the Ultimate Team Sport." It's just because football requires more people in order to play. That's it. But while having the best player in the league on your squad doesn't mean *as* much in the NFL as in the other major sports, it still clearly beats not having the best player in the league. Sure, maybe one rookie isn't going to turn a loser into a contender. But if you want to turn a loser into a contender, you have to start somewhere, and there's no better way to start than having the opportunity to draft the college player who will best fill your team needs. Bringing in one free agent might not turn a loser into a contender. Getting a better Offensive Coordinator may not turn a loser into a contender. But every bit helps, each of those things can be a step in the direction you need to go. If you know you need an impact HB, why get yourself the 2nd best one in the draft when you could have the best one in the draft? Yes, an NFL team has many components. But every time you settle for a sub-optimal component, you lessen the chances of having the desired finished product.
(I completely agree with what Hunter is saying here. First, however, TMQ is not implying that football is "the Ultimate Team Sport" because of said mystical quality, but because of the exact reason Hunter gave: many more players are involved. In baseball, basketball and hockey, most players are involved in the game at all times (baseball is a bit different because of pitchers, but we all can agree that a great pitcher cannot alone make his team great). In football, especially at the professional level, players are only involved in the game roughly half of the time, and their are 10 other guys on the field with them, more than any other sport, making an individual that much less important. Plus, we all know that the NFL draft is a very inexact science, and that no matter how much scouting teams do and how many background checks they run or high school coaches they talk to, it seems to be little better than a 50/50 proposition whether an NFL player ever lives up to his draft position. Maybe it's better to have the #1 HB instead of #2, and maybe it's not. Plenty of teams have gotten the player they wanted much later than they expected him to be available, and others have taken the player they desperately desired and been completely unsatisfied. And still, teams that have missed on high draft picks have gone on to become successful despite those failures. So why intentionally throw away a season, even a non-playoff season, when you can build for the future?)
#1 (Financial cost of high picks) - I don't really believe that high draft picks are "so expensive they almost become a detriment to the team." If they were, we wouldn't be having a discussion about why teams don't tank for draft position, because high draft position wouldn't be desirable to begin with! But we know that it is, because high draft picks command more trade value than lower ones, and teams do make sacrifices to trade up in draft position. I don't really think it is THAT hard to stay under the salary cap. The cap isn't really that restrictive. Each year, there are very few guys in the free agent market that are simply "too good" to be free agents. The guys who are supposed to be retained, the teams find the money to retain them. Exceptions are almost ALWAYS due to conflict between the player and the team, or earlier mismanagement of resources by the team. If a team finds itself in truly dire cap trouble, it's probably their own fault, and not the cap's fault.
(Agreed, but the financial cost I speak of here doesn't actually have much to do with the salary cap. This is more to the idea of possibly missing on a super-high draft pick and being saddled with a huge paycheck for a player that doesn't perform. The higher the draft pick is, the more money the team must commit to an unproven player, potentially costing them the money needed to keep key veterans or add important free agents. This also goes back to the owners' perspectives, as they would surely rather pay a #5 overall pick instead of a #1 overall pick, even if it meant getting a slightly worse player, because both have about the same chance of succeeding in the league. Higher picks not only demand higher salaries, but also demand far more guaranteed money, which is money owners can never get back if the player fails.)
#2 (Potential failure of drafted players) - There is always the potential for a drafted player to fail. This is not less true for later picks than for early picks. In fact, it is MORE true for later picks than early picks, for reasons that should be obvious. The team cannot be afraid to trust its decision about which players are better than which other players. You did all that scouting for a reason. Take the guy you think is the best for your team. Don't trade down and take someone YOU believe is less talented just because it will be a lesser blow if he turns out to be a bust. Man up and take your shot. If you don't want the best high-priced rookies on your team, because you're afraid they might turn out to be a bust, then you shouldn't want the best high-priced veterans on your team either, because you should be afraid they might get hurt. Just use low-priced mediocre talent across the board and see where that takes you. No? Okay, then quit worrying and take the best player. The only reason a miss can hurt more than a hit can help, is because if you hit, the player may hold-out for a restructured contract with mo' $$$, but if you miss, it is very difficult to restructure the contract to less $$$. I think hold-outs are incredibly lame, but that's a whole other rant. :)
(Very fair point, and certainly the lower the pick, the more likely the player is to be a bust (I'm not so sure it's as great a difference as you think, though, especially since all the players we're talking about here are in the top 20 overall picks). However, as you said, there is no way to recoup money from a player that underperforms. Also, if you truly trust your scouting department, then you should either be able to find a player that fits your team no matter where you pick, or else you should know exactly who you need so you can trade, be that up or down, to get him where you get the best value.)
In summary:
I do think #s 4-7 explain why NFL teams don't tank, and I don't expect that to change. They will continue to not tank, even when it is in the best interests of the franchise to do so. It also occurred to me that when someone is controlling a team in Madden, #s 4 and 5 (which I pegged as the biggest reasons why teams don't tank) do not really apply, because you know exactly who you intend to keep, and the coaches and players are largely unaffected by things like pride, or uncertainty about the future of their career (coaches are ENTIRELY unaffected by these things.) Since our first-hand experience with owning and running a team comes from Madden, in which the two largest reasons not to tank are non-factors, it makes sense that the decision to tank should look so "obvious" to us on the surface. Considering these other factors, which Madden players don't have to deal with, was a fun and interesting exercise for me, and put me "in the shoes" of a real-life NFL owner/GM more than I had been when thinking about this topic previously. So thanks for writing the post that was the catalyst for that exercise! :)
(No, thank you for reading.)
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First, a quick refresher on my 7.5 reasons why NFL teams don't tank:
- Financial Cost of 1st Round Picks
- Potential Failure of Drafted Players
- Lower Value of Individual Players to Teams
- Coaches Protecting Their Job
- Players Seeking to Remain in the League
- Pride/Rivalries
- Competitive Balance
I think the entry does a good job of catching all the reasons why NFL teams generally do not tank. I believe the main reasons why NFL teams don't tank are #4 and #5, while #6 and #7 are still true, just to a lesser extent. (But?...)
I think the entry also lists things that actually AREN'T reasons why NFL teams choose not to tank, namely #s 1 and 2. #3 I have mixed feelings about. (The hell you say! Let's see if this pans out...)
Way-too-in-depth analysis follows! :) (This is true. So far so good.)
#4 (Coaches protecting their job) - Definitely keeps teams from tanking. The coach can choose to have the team tank, to help it build for the future. But he would probably only be willing to do this if the ownership guaranteed him job security first. You don't want to tank, let everyone see that the team "quit on you" and then get fired. That'll make it tough to find a new coaching gig. Since tanking is "taboo" the franchise/front office can't just come right out and tell the fans "we're tanking for draft position." So the coach has to believe that the ownership will keep him on-board despite any pressure from fans who are calling for his head. But since the coaches have salaries that are so large they demand results (as mentioned in an earlier blog post) that pressure may be pretty intense. The fans are used to throwing the coach under the bus whenever the team doesn't win.
(The only reason that tanking is "taboo" is because it actually can have a great impact on the competitive balance of the league. This is what the league's front office is concerned with, and this is the reason that teams are not "allowed" to tank. As you mentioned, coaches would be killed by the fan base if they tanked without coming out and saying it, and they would be killed by the league if they did acknowledge tanking. The other important consideration here, especially with the NFL, is the gambling ramifications of a tanking team. How can oddsmakers ever properly handicap a game in which one team is outright trying to lose? What if both teams are tanking? What about your fantasy implications?!? The horror!)
#5 (Players protecting their place in the league) - Also definitely keeps teams from tanking. If the player helps his team tank to build for the future, he too needs a guarantee that he'll still be around to reap the rewards. If the tanking team lets him go, and he has not been showcasing his talent because he was helping the team lose, it's going to be bad for his career. But as the owner or general manager, you can't possibly guarantee all your players that they will be back. After all, if all your players were the right guys to have on the team, you probably wouldn't need to tank and build for the future, right? So you can't promise them all a job, and anyone you don't promise a job to is going to be playing their heart out no matter what the coach says, so they can find a spot with another team next year. That's bound to mess up the tanking.
(While I agree this is important (I included it, so it must be!), I don't think this is as important as Hunter thinks. The fact is, a team can outwardly tank even if it's players all play hard, as long as those players are bad. Thus, the team can play backups/young players instead of their "stars", and they could even assure those stars that they will be back the next year (if they want to be after being benched...). So yes the players will play hard, but the team can easily still lose. It's simply up to the coach and front office to convince the better players that they will be rewarded in the future for their patience. Plus, those star players that the team ensures will return then could play intentionally poorly if they knew their jobs were safe. They can all just follow Braylon Edwards's example.)
#6 (Pride/rivalries) - Yep. Inevitably there will be a few guys who simply cannot lose on purpose because it is against their nature. 6a definitely contributes because again, tanking is "taboo" so you can't just tell the fans that's what you're doing and expect them to understand. Some fans WILL think that beating your rivals will salvage an otherwise disappointing season, but every game you win against a hated rival is still hurting your tanking strategy.
(My point exactly. The fan base expects the players to play all-out, and players that have pride in their play, or those seeking records, Pro Bowls, etc., will all try hard if they're put on the field. Plus, fans hate losing to rivals, and I think many fans would even irrationally be upset by losing to a rival, even if losing meant getting a great draft pick. Fan is short for fanatic, they say.)
#7 (Competitive balance) - This one is still true, but a bit more abstract. The coaches and players won't necessarily feel a strong obligation to "competitive balance." They might not care too much about whether the "right teams" were in the playoffs, if it helps THEIR team improve. So the pressure to maintain the "competitive balance" has to come from the owners and (most of all) the league itself. And it does. The owners and the league office have a large hand in making sure that tanking continues to be "taboo." If the fans know their team is tanking, they may think it's a bad thing (against the competitive spirit of the game) or they may think it's a GREAT thing (gives my team its best chance of having success later) but either way, they aren't going to want to SHOW UP to the games WHILE the team is intentionally tanking. That hits the owners in the pocketbook, and worse yet, looks very bad for the league. So the pressure stays on: This is still a business, and we've still got to sell tickets, so make sure you give your fans a reason to keep thinking the team might give them something to cheer about if they come to a game.
(I think I'm flattered that he called my writing "abstract." That seems like a compliment. Maybe. Anyways, this is what I mentioned above. The concept of competitive balance is meaningless to the individual teams if they know that losing is their best course of action. But for the owners, it's even worse that Hunter made it sound. Not only does poor attendance hurt them because of lower ticket revenue, but if they fail to sell out, their home games will be blacked out in the local market, and as we all should know by now, NFL teams make more money off of television revenue than anything else. Additionally, a team tanking this season tells the fan base that they are capable of tanking any time, and this could severely deter fans from purchasing season tickets if they know their team may give up halfway through the season. And finally, as he said and I mentioned above, the league front office has many reasons why it wants tanking to be taboo. From television revenue lost (networks won't pay as much for t.v. rights if they think some late-season games will be thrown, in essence) to gambling concerns (why do you think the NFL is #1 in the U.S. right now, really?) to fantasy football concerns (a vast industry that is growing rapidly), the NFL simply can't afford to let people think certain games aren't being played to win (cue the Herm Edwards quote).)
#3 (Lower value of individual players) - Okay, the value of each player to the team is less in the NFL, compared to the NHL, the NBA, or in MLB. But that's not because of some mystical quality that makes football "the Ultimate Team Sport." It's just because football requires more people in order to play. That's it. But while having the best player in the league on your squad doesn't mean *as* much in the NFL as in the other major sports, it still clearly beats not having the best player in the league. Sure, maybe one rookie isn't going to turn a loser into a contender. But if you want to turn a loser into a contender, you have to start somewhere, and there's no better way to start than having the opportunity to draft the college player who will best fill your team needs. Bringing in one free agent might not turn a loser into a contender. Getting a better Offensive Coordinator may not turn a loser into a contender. But every bit helps, each of those things can be a step in the direction you need to go. If you know you need an impact HB, why get yourself the 2nd best one in the draft when you could have the best one in the draft? Yes, an NFL team has many components. But every time you settle for a sub-optimal component, you lessen the chances of having the desired finished product.
(I completely agree with what Hunter is saying here. First, however, TMQ is not implying that football is "the Ultimate Team Sport" because of said mystical quality, but because of the exact reason Hunter gave: many more players are involved. In baseball, basketball and hockey, most players are involved in the game at all times (baseball is a bit different because of pitchers, but we all can agree that a great pitcher cannot alone make his team great). In football, especially at the professional level, players are only involved in the game roughly half of the time, and their are 10 other guys on the field with them, more than any other sport, making an individual that much less important. Plus, we all know that the NFL draft is a very inexact science, and that no matter how much scouting teams do and how many background checks they run or high school coaches they talk to, it seems to be little better than a 50/50 proposition whether an NFL player ever lives up to his draft position. Maybe it's better to have the #1 HB instead of #2, and maybe it's not. Plenty of teams have gotten the player they wanted much later than they expected him to be available, and others have taken the player they desperately desired and been completely unsatisfied. And still, teams that have missed on high draft picks have gone on to become successful despite those failures. So why intentionally throw away a season, even a non-playoff season, when you can build for the future?)
#1 (Financial cost of high picks) - I don't really believe that high draft picks are "so expensive they almost become a detriment to the team." If they were, we wouldn't be having a discussion about why teams don't tank for draft position, because high draft position wouldn't be desirable to begin with! But we know that it is, because high draft picks command more trade value than lower ones, and teams do make sacrifices to trade up in draft position. I don't really think it is THAT hard to stay under the salary cap. The cap isn't really that restrictive. Each year, there are very few guys in the free agent market that are simply "too good" to be free agents. The guys who are supposed to be retained, the teams find the money to retain them. Exceptions are almost ALWAYS due to conflict between the player and the team, or earlier mismanagement of resources by the team. If a team finds itself in truly dire cap trouble, it's probably their own fault, and not the cap's fault.
(Agreed, but the financial cost I speak of here doesn't actually have much to do with the salary cap. This is more to the idea of possibly missing on a super-high draft pick and being saddled with a huge paycheck for a player that doesn't perform. The higher the draft pick is, the more money the team must commit to an unproven player, potentially costing them the money needed to keep key veterans or add important free agents. This also goes back to the owners' perspectives, as they would surely rather pay a #5 overall pick instead of a #1 overall pick, even if it meant getting a slightly worse player, because both have about the same chance of succeeding in the league. Higher picks not only demand higher salaries, but also demand far more guaranteed money, which is money owners can never get back if the player fails.)
#2 (Potential failure of drafted players) - There is always the potential for a drafted player to fail. This is not less true for later picks than for early picks. In fact, it is MORE true for later picks than early picks, for reasons that should be obvious. The team cannot be afraid to trust its decision about which players are better than which other players. You did all that scouting for a reason. Take the guy you think is the best for your team. Don't trade down and take someone YOU believe is less talented just because it will be a lesser blow if he turns out to be a bust. Man up and take your shot. If you don't want the best high-priced rookies on your team, because you're afraid they might turn out to be a bust, then you shouldn't want the best high-priced veterans on your team either, because you should be afraid they might get hurt. Just use low-priced mediocre talent across the board and see where that takes you. No? Okay, then quit worrying and take the best player. The only reason a miss can hurt more than a hit can help, is because if you hit, the player may hold-out for a restructured contract with mo' $$$, but if you miss, it is very difficult to restructure the contract to less $$$. I think hold-outs are incredibly lame, but that's a whole other rant. :)
(Very fair point, and certainly the lower the pick, the more likely the player is to be a bust (I'm not so sure it's as great a difference as you think, though, especially since all the players we're talking about here are in the top 20 overall picks). However, as you said, there is no way to recoup money from a player that underperforms. Also, if you truly trust your scouting department, then you should either be able to find a player that fits your team no matter where you pick, or else you should know exactly who you need so you can trade, be that up or down, to get him where you get the best value.)
In summary:
I do think #s 4-7 explain why NFL teams don't tank, and I don't expect that to change. They will continue to not tank, even when it is in the best interests of the franchise to do so. It also occurred to me that when someone is controlling a team in Madden, #s 4 and 5 (which I pegged as the biggest reasons why teams don't tank) do not really apply, because you know exactly who you intend to keep, and the coaches and players are largely unaffected by things like pride, or uncertainty about the future of their career (coaches are ENTIRELY unaffected by these things.) Since our first-hand experience with owning and running a team comes from Madden, in which the two largest reasons not to tank are non-factors, it makes sense that the decision to tank should look so "obvious" to us on the surface. Considering these other factors, which Madden players don't have to deal with, was a fun and interesting exercise for me, and put me "in the shoes" of a real-life NFL owner/GM more than I had been when thinking about this topic previously. So thanks for writing the post that was the catalyst for that exercise! :)
(No, thank you for reading.)
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, January 26, 2009
Why Don't NFL Teams Tank?
With the NFL season winding to a close, most teams have their eyes ahead to this April's draft. Many NFL scouts are busy visiting college all-star games that act as pre-draft workouts for top prospects. The Combine will be upon us next month and then the speculation and debate will heat up as to whom each team will draft. In recent years, the value of the draft has increased as the price of quality free agents has continued to grow, so it becomes more and more important that teams make the right pick in the draft, and the higher picks gain greater value. Knowing this, the question becomes: why don't NFL teams that are out of postseason contention lose intentionally to improve their draft position?
At first glance, it would seem that this is an obvious choice; the higher you pick, the better chance you have of getting an impact player in the draft that will make your team significantly better the next season. Not only that, but the worse your record, the higher you pick in each of the seven rounds of the draft, not just the first round, so the incentive is even greater to tank. So why don't teams do it? I believe there are seven reasons for this:
1. Financial Cost of First Round Picks - Since the most recent collective bargaining agreement was reached in 2006, the NFL's salary cap has been increasing at an ever greater rate; the salary floor (or minimum amount each team must commit to players) also increases yearly. With this increase in cap room comes the demand by players (and their agents) for more money each year and up front in the form of signing bonuses. This demand has translated to rookies as these players, knowing that the average lifespan of an NFL career is less than three years, try to grab as much money at the start of their careers as possible. And each year players expect to get paid more than the player taken in the same slot the previous year, making the money given high draft picks grow at an increasing rate. This makes high draft picks so expensive they almost become a detriment to the team. It also leads to the next reason...
2. Potential Failure of Drafted Players - With the growing amount of money being given to rookies, it has become more costly to teams if their drafted players fail to deliver. A miss can hurt more than a great hit can help, and the higher that player is drafted, the more costly the mistake. Not only does a failed high pick cost the team money and cap room, but that player also costs the team on the field as highly drafted players usually get playing time regardless of their play. Teams feel obligated (as they should) to put these highly paid players on the field and give them a chance to prove themselves, and if the player fails, especially at certain positions (quarterback, middle linebacker, safety and even some line positions), it can seriously hurt the team. On top of all that, because of said highly paid prospect, the team may be forced to release a veteran or multiple veterans that would have turned out more useful to them.
3. Lower Value of Individual Players to Teams - ESPN.com's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" by Gregg Easterbrook constantly asserts the idea that football is the "ultimate team sport." In other words, no individual (with the possible exception of a great quarterback) has the ability to completely change a game. This is because 22 players (at least) must all perform their duties for a team to succeed. Even great QBs can't ensure that their passes are caught, or that they don't get sacked constantly because of poor pass protection, or that their defense doesn't allow 50 points per game, etc. So if one player (particularly a rookie) isn't likely (read: possibly) going to change the team from a loser to a winner, an also-ran to a contender, then what value is there in tanking? All you are likely to do is drive up the financial cost of your draft pick. Not only that, but because of the number of players needed for a competitive NFL team, the "best player" in college football is often fluid from week-to-week and even from team-to-team. There is almost never a consensus number one (there are no LeBron James's in football) and even those thought to be (Reggie Bush, anyone?) often don't turn out that way.
4. Coaches Seeking to Keep Their Job - Of all the reasons, this one may be the most accurate and yet the most ridiculous. First, all coaches' primary motivation is to keep their job, especially if they know the team isn't very good. Usually coaches and people around an organization know pretty early on whether or not their team has the talent to compete for a playoff berth; most teams do not (20 teams miss the playoffs every year). So presumably once a team discovers that it is not a playoff-caliber squad (which can be as late as week 11, 12, maybe even 13, or as early as the preseason), it stands to reason that they should stop trying to win in order to improve their draft position and presumably be better the next year. The problem is that the worst mark a coach can receive is the belief that his team "quit on him." If the players are just terrible and the team loses but at least plays hard, then the coach can be saved, and may even be praised as a great motivator. But if it looks like the team gave up on the season, that is the ultimate sign of coaching failure and the coach will likely be fired. Thus, coaches don't tank because tanking is seen as giving up, even if it means making the team better in the future.
5. Players Seeking to Remain in the League - Even if coaches encouraged their players to tank, most players wouldn't do it because they, too, are playing for their jobs. If a player is labeled a quitter, he better be an All-Pro type athlete or else no team will want any part of him. Even if it is clear that the players on a bad team are a bad fit and will be gone after the season, they still must play hard because they are then auditioning for a position on the other 31 teams in the league. This leads to another topic (one I'll address in a later column): teams must be wary of the guys that put up huge stats on a bad team. There are many examples of this that I'll get into another time.
6. Pride? - One would hope that this would be an issue for both professional athletes and their coaches. If these people actually care about the game they are playing and the fans that shell out huge amounts of money to watch them do it, then they absolutely should be trying their hardest in every game. Football is not a sport that lends itself to half-hearted play (which is why the Pro Bowl has never gained the notoriety of the other major all-star games) and players that don't go all-out are believed to be more susceptible to injury. Players, then, are motivated to play their hardest because of their competitive nature and, frankly, desire for self-preservation. Pride is less of a factor for coaches (although they certainly must have that same competitive fire to have devoted their lives to a sport) because the game is looked at from a much more business-like perspective. If the coaches know the team is very bad, they can inadvertently tank by playing backups and younger players under the guise of "evaluating the talent."
6a. Rivalries - A sub-point of the Pride reason is that teams that lose intentionally would likely be losing games to division rivals (as most teams play each of their divisional foes once late in the year). This would be absolutely unacceptable to fans and thus would be a major concern for coaches and owners. As poorly as a team may be playing, they are always expected to "get up" for games against division rivals, and a tanking team would be required to instead "lay down" in such a game. This is definitely something coaches and owners would want to avoid, because for many teams, fans will consider a season a success if their team simply defeats its rivals, especially if it hurts those rivals' playoff chances.
7. Competitive Balance - Clearly tanking is bad for the sport. If teams intentionally try not to win, this means that their opponents are given free victories which clearly upset the competitive balance of the league. For example, if two teams are locked in a tight playoff race and one team has a tanker on its schedule while its competitor does not (say they played the tanker early in the year before tanking became the best option), the team with the tanker has a huge advantage. This goes back to the previous point (6a) in that a division could be decided simply by the timing of certain games on the schedule. And there's also the disaster that would happen if two tanking teams were to meet in a pivotal late-season game. (This has actually happened before, in the 2005 season, although neither team involved was truly tanking (or so they claim) at the time. The game pitted the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers, the two worst records in football, with the loser presumably winning the right to draft USC running back Reggie Bush. The Texans lost the game 20-17 and went on to finish 2-14, only to stun the world by drafting defensive end Mario Williams with the top pick instead of Bush, who fell to New Orleans at #3.)
These are the most reasonable explanations for why NFL teams don't (seem to) tank. Do I think NFL teams should tank? Given these different factors, I'd say no. For now. But rumors are that the owners (who opted out of the current collective bargaining agreement effective after next season) will be seeking a stricter rookie salary cap (one already exists but is easily circumvented through bonuses) or even a rookie salary scale like the one used by the NBA. If this happens, then you can toss reasons 1 and 2 out the window and it opens the door for tanking in a big way because many of the financial concerns are allayed.
So what do you think? Are there any reasons I've missed, or do you think there are teams that actually do tank? Please comment below.
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
At first glance, it would seem that this is an obvious choice; the higher you pick, the better chance you have of getting an impact player in the draft that will make your team significantly better the next season. Not only that, but the worse your record, the higher you pick in each of the seven rounds of the draft, not just the first round, so the incentive is even greater to tank. So why don't teams do it? I believe there are seven reasons for this:
1. Financial Cost of First Round Picks - Since the most recent collective bargaining agreement was reached in 2006, the NFL's salary cap has been increasing at an ever greater rate; the salary floor (or minimum amount each team must commit to players) also increases yearly. With this increase in cap room comes the demand by players (and their agents) for more money each year and up front in the form of signing bonuses. This demand has translated to rookies as these players, knowing that the average lifespan of an NFL career is less than three years, try to grab as much money at the start of their careers as possible. And each year players expect to get paid more than the player taken in the same slot the previous year, making the money given high draft picks grow at an increasing rate. This makes high draft picks so expensive they almost become a detriment to the team. It also leads to the next reason...
2. Potential Failure of Drafted Players - With the growing amount of money being given to rookies, it has become more costly to teams if their drafted players fail to deliver. A miss can hurt more than a great hit can help, and the higher that player is drafted, the more costly the mistake. Not only does a failed high pick cost the team money and cap room, but that player also costs the team on the field as highly drafted players usually get playing time regardless of their play. Teams feel obligated (as they should) to put these highly paid players on the field and give them a chance to prove themselves, and if the player fails, especially at certain positions (quarterback, middle linebacker, safety and even some line positions), it can seriously hurt the team. On top of all that, because of said highly paid prospect, the team may be forced to release a veteran or multiple veterans that would have turned out more useful to them.
3. Lower Value of Individual Players to Teams - ESPN.com's "Tuesday Morning Quarterback" by Gregg Easterbrook constantly asserts the idea that football is the "ultimate team sport." In other words, no individual (with the possible exception of a great quarterback) has the ability to completely change a game. This is because 22 players (at least) must all perform their duties for a team to succeed. Even great QBs can't ensure that their passes are caught, or that they don't get sacked constantly because of poor pass protection, or that their defense doesn't allow 50 points per game, etc. So if one player (particularly a rookie) isn't likely (read: possibly) going to change the team from a loser to a winner, an also-ran to a contender, then what value is there in tanking? All you are likely to do is drive up the financial cost of your draft pick. Not only that, but because of the number of players needed for a competitive NFL team, the "best player" in college football is often fluid from week-to-week and even from team-to-team. There is almost never a consensus number one (there are no LeBron James's in football) and even those thought to be (Reggie Bush, anyone?) often don't turn out that way.
4. Coaches Seeking to Keep Their Job - Of all the reasons, this one may be the most accurate and yet the most ridiculous. First, all coaches' primary motivation is to keep their job, especially if they know the team isn't very good. Usually coaches and people around an organization know pretty early on whether or not their team has the talent to compete for a playoff berth; most teams do not (20 teams miss the playoffs every year). So presumably once a team discovers that it is not a playoff-caliber squad (which can be as late as week 11, 12, maybe even 13, or as early as the preseason), it stands to reason that they should stop trying to win in order to improve their draft position and presumably be better the next year. The problem is that the worst mark a coach can receive is the belief that his team "quit on him." If the players are just terrible and the team loses but at least plays hard, then the coach can be saved, and may even be praised as a great motivator. But if it looks like the team gave up on the season, that is the ultimate sign of coaching failure and the coach will likely be fired. Thus, coaches don't tank because tanking is seen as giving up, even if it means making the team better in the future.
5. Players Seeking to Remain in the League - Even if coaches encouraged their players to tank, most players wouldn't do it because they, too, are playing for their jobs. If a player is labeled a quitter, he better be an All-Pro type athlete or else no team will want any part of him. Even if it is clear that the players on a bad team are a bad fit and will be gone after the season, they still must play hard because they are then auditioning for a position on the other 31 teams in the league. This leads to another topic (one I'll address in a later column): teams must be wary of the guys that put up huge stats on a bad team. There are many examples of this that I'll get into another time.
6. Pride? - One would hope that this would be an issue for both professional athletes and their coaches. If these people actually care about the game they are playing and the fans that shell out huge amounts of money to watch them do it, then they absolutely should be trying their hardest in every game. Football is not a sport that lends itself to half-hearted play (which is why the Pro Bowl has never gained the notoriety of the other major all-star games) and players that don't go all-out are believed to be more susceptible to injury. Players, then, are motivated to play their hardest because of their competitive nature and, frankly, desire for self-preservation. Pride is less of a factor for coaches (although they certainly must have that same competitive fire to have devoted their lives to a sport) because the game is looked at from a much more business-like perspective. If the coaches know the team is very bad, they can inadvertently tank by playing backups and younger players under the guise of "evaluating the talent."
6a. Rivalries - A sub-point of the Pride reason is that teams that lose intentionally would likely be losing games to division rivals (as most teams play each of their divisional foes once late in the year). This would be absolutely unacceptable to fans and thus would be a major concern for coaches and owners. As poorly as a team may be playing, they are always expected to "get up" for games against division rivals, and a tanking team would be required to instead "lay down" in such a game. This is definitely something coaches and owners would want to avoid, because for many teams, fans will consider a season a success if their team simply defeats its rivals, especially if it hurts those rivals' playoff chances.
7. Competitive Balance - Clearly tanking is bad for the sport. If teams intentionally try not to win, this means that their opponents are given free victories which clearly upset the competitive balance of the league. For example, if two teams are locked in a tight playoff race and one team has a tanker on its schedule while its competitor does not (say they played the tanker early in the year before tanking became the best option), the team with the tanker has a huge advantage. This goes back to the previous point (6a) in that a division could be decided simply by the timing of certain games on the schedule. And there's also the disaster that would happen if two tanking teams were to meet in a pivotal late-season game. (This has actually happened before, in the 2005 season, although neither team involved was truly tanking (or so they claim) at the time. The game pitted the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers, the two worst records in football, with the loser presumably winning the right to draft USC running back Reggie Bush. The Texans lost the game 20-17 and went on to finish 2-14, only to stun the world by drafting defensive end Mario Williams with the top pick instead of Bush, who fell to New Orleans at #3.)
These are the most reasonable explanations for why NFL teams don't (seem to) tank. Do I think NFL teams should tank? Given these different factors, I'd say no. For now. But rumors are that the owners (who opted out of the current collective bargaining agreement effective after next season) will be seeking a stricter rookie salary cap (one already exists but is easily circumvented through bonuses) or even a rookie salary scale like the one used by the NBA. If this happens, then you can toss reasons 1 and 2 out the window and it opens the door for tanking in a big way because many of the financial concerns are allayed.
So what do you think? Are there any reasons I've missed, or do you think there are teams that actually do tank? Please comment below.
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Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Top 5 Worst Draft Picks - 2004 NFL Draft
Part 5 of my series running down the worst first round selections in each NFL draft since the year 2000. The 2004 draft was notable for two things: the number of draft records it set and the infamous Eli Manning trade. The former included a record seven wide receivers selected in the first round, a record 28 trades in the first round, and a record six players selected from the University of Miami in the first round. Another record was set by Ohio State University which had a record 14 total players selected in the draft. The latter, the Eli Manning trade, is well known because of the fact that he was traded after he was drafted, a significant rarity in the NFL. The Chargers selected the Ole Miss QB despite his comments leading up to the draft that he would not play with San Diego if they chose him. About an hour after the selection, the Chargers traded Manning to the New York Giants for the QB Philip Rivers (the #4 overall pick) and the Giants' first and fifth round picks in 2005.
An amazing 13 of the top 24 players selected have already been to the Pro Bowl, and that doesn't even include Super Bowl XLII MVP Eli Manning. Eight of the top 12 picks have been to Hawaii, while two (Manning and CB Dunta Robinson) are considered to still be potential future Pro Bowlers. Given all that, the worst picks in this draft don't have to be complete busts to stand out among the quality players.
Honorable Mention: J.P. Losman, Quarterback, #22 Overall Pick, Buffalo Bills - After spending the #13 pick on a wideout (Lee Evans) and spending a first round pick in 2003 on a running back (Willis McGahee), the Bills believed Losman was the final piece to a great young offense. Losman would spend his rookie season on the bench watching and learning from veteran Drew Bledsoe, and started his first game in 2005. Losman struggled through the 2005 season, even being benched in favor of backup Kelly Holcomb and the two split time through much of the season. Thanks largely to a porous offensive line and a struggling running game, the Bills offense had little success in 2006 as well, although Losman himself played well. Despite this, the Bills still chose to select Stanford quarterback Trent Edwards in the third round of the 2007 draft and after Losman went down with an ankle injury in October, Edwards stepped in and performed well enough to be named the starting quarterback even when Losman returned. Rumors then surfaced that the decision was not merit-based but rather a means for the Bills to avoid Losman reaching certain milestones that would result in bonuses from his contract. When Edwards went down with an injury, Losman returned to the lineup and again performed well but was clearly upset about being benched and even requested a trade which has not yet been granted. He will be a Bill in 2008, but it is unknown whether or not he will start. Players selected later: RB Steven Jackson #24, CB Chris Gamble #28, QB Matt Schaub #90.
5. Kenechi Udeze, Defensive End, #20 Overall Pick, Minnesota Vikings - Udeze had a standout career at USC but could never seem to get it going with the Vikings. His early career was marred by a major knee injury in his second season and when he returned in 2006, he was ineffective. In 2007 it was discovered that he has a form of Leukemia and he will received a bone marrow transplant that will keep him out at least through the 2008 season. Players selected later: DT Vince Wilfork #21, RB Steven Jackson #24, SS Bob Sanders #44.
4. Reggie Williams, Wide Receiver, #9 Overall Pick, Jacksonville Jaguars - It's no surprise that at least one of the seven receivers selected in the first round would show up on here. Williams, being a top 10 pick, might have warranted a higher ranking on this list were it not for the fact that the Jaguars still believe he can turn into a quality receiver as evidenced by his 11 touchdown receptions in 2007 (on only 38 total catches, mind you). Williams looked like he was figuring things out in early 2005 until a mid-season concussion caused his numbers to drop off. Again in 2006 he was on pace for a breakout season until an ankle injury sidelined quarterback Byron Leftwich and Williams production dropped with David Garrard under center. Williams may still make it in the league, but for now he's most accurately described as a draft miss. Players selected later: LB Jonathan Vilma #12, WR Lee Evans #13, DT Tommie Harris #14.
3. Robert Gallery, Offensive Tackle, #2 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders - This was a tough choice, because Gallery seems like he really should be higher on this list, but the fact is the two players ahead of him deserve those spots more. Gallery was seen as a can't-miss prospect coming out of Iowa, with good size and strength and remarkably quick feet, but for whatever reason he was never really able to put it all together as a tackle. Gallery does get a bit of redemption in the fact that, since he was moved to guard prior to the 2007 season, he seems to have found his niche in the league and some think he may even be capable of becoming a Pro Bowl caliber guard within the next couple years. Despite this, virtually all NFL teams would agree that not even a Pro Bowl guard is worth the #2 pick, and it's rare a guard would ever be picked in the top half of round 1. Players selected later: WR Larry Fitzgerald #3, QB Philip Rivers #4, S Sean Taylor #5.
2. Ahmad Carroll, Cornerback, #25 Overall Pick, Green Bay Packers - Carroll may have one of the strongest nicknames in all of football: "Highway 28" (28 being his number) for the fact that opposing receivers routinely speed past him into the endzone. His other nickname, also very appropriate, is "Grabby Smurf" for his tendency to commit illegal contact penalties (i.e. pass interference). In Carroll's career, he played 34 games with the Packers, starting 28, and was flagged 33 times (26 for coverage violations) for 256 penalty yards (on only 24 accepted penalties) and allowed 11 touchdown receptions. Oh, and he did have 3 interceptions, so he's got that going for him. Let's not forget the arrest in May 2007 on charges of carrying a concealed weapon, carrying a pistol without a license, possession of MDMA (ecstasy) and possession of a firearm during commitment of a felony. No surprise, he's been out of football since then. Players selected later: CB Chris Gamble #28, LB Karlos Dansby #33, S Bob Sanders #44.
1. Rashaun Woods, Wide Receiver, #31 Overall Pick, San Francisco 49ers - So how does the #31 overall pick make his way onto this list? How does a career total of 7 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdown sound? Not so good for a first round pick. Woods career production all came in his rookie season in 2004. He spent the 2005 season on injured reserve with torn ligaments in his thumb, and was traded in April 2006 to the San Diego Chargers. He would be cut by the Chargers in August of 2006 without playing a down and would subsequently be offered a contract with the Denver Broncos but fail the team's physical and not be signed. He later worked out for the Vikings, but was not signed and his been out of football since the end of 2006. Players selected later: TE Benjamin Watson #32, LB Karlos Dansby #33, S Bob Sanders #44.
An amazing 13 of the top 24 players selected have already been to the Pro Bowl, and that doesn't even include Super Bowl XLII MVP Eli Manning. Eight of the top 12 picks have been to Hawaii, while two (Manning and CB Dunta Robinson) are considered to still be potential future Pro Bowlers. Given all that, the worst picks in this draft don't have to be complete busts to stand out among the quality players.
Honorable Mention: J.P. Losman, Quarterback, #22 Overall Pick, Buffalo Bills - After spending the #13 pick on a wideout (Lee Evans) and spending a first round pick in 2003 on a running back (Willis McGahee), the Bills believed Losman was the final piece to a great young offense. Losman would spend his rookie season on the bench watching and learning from veteran Drew Bledsoe, and started his first game in 2005. Losman struggled through the 2005 season, even being benched in favor of backup Kelly Holcomb and the two split time through much of the season. Thanks largely to a porous offensive line and a struggling running game, the Bills offense had little success in 2006 as well, although Losman himself played well. Despite this, the Bills still chose to select Stanford quarterback Trent Edwards in the third round of the 2007 draft and after Losman went down with an ankle injury in October, Edwards stepped in and performed well enough to be named the starting quarterback even when Losman returned. Rumors then surfaced that the decision was not merit-based but rather a means for the Bills to avoid Losman reaching certain milestones that would result in bonuses from his contract. When Edwards went down with an injury, Losman returned to the lineup and again performed well but was clearly upset about being benched and even requested a trade which has not yet been granted. He will be a Bill in 2008, but it is unknown whether or not he will start. Players selected later: RB Steven Jackson #24, CB Chris Gamble #28, QB Matt Schaub #90.
5. Kenechi Udeze, Defensive End, #20 Overall Pick, Minnesota Vikings - Udeze had a standout career at USC but could never seem to get it going with the Vikings. His early career was marred by a major knee injury in his second season and when he returned in 2006, he was ineffective. In 2007 it was discovered that he has a form of Leukemia and he will received a bone marrow transplant that will keep him out at least through the 2008 season. Players selected later: DT Vince Wilfork #21, RB Steven Jackson #24, SS Bob Sanders #44.
4. Reggie Williams, Wide Receiver, #9 Overall Pick, Jacksonville Jaguars - It's no surprise that at least one of the seven receivers selected in the first round would show up on here. Williams, being a top 10 pick, might have warranted a higher ranking on this list were it not for the fact that the Jaguars still believe he can turn into a quality receiver as evidenced by his 11 touchdown receptions in 2007 (on only 38 total catches, mind you). Williams looked like he was figuring things out in early 2005 until a mid-season concussion caused his numbers to drop off. Again in 2006 he was on pace for a breakout season until an ankle injury sidelined quarterback Byron Leftwich and Williams production dropped with David Garrard under center. Williams may still make it in the league, but for now he's most accurately described as a draft miss. Players selected later: LB Jonathan Vilma #12, WR Lee Evans #13, DT Tommie Harris #14.
3. Robert Gallery, Offensive Tackle, #2 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders - This was a tough choice, because Gallery seems like he really should be higher on this list, but the fact is the two players ahead of him deserve those spots more. Gallery was seen as a can't-miss prospect coming out of Iowa, with good size and strength and remarkably quick feet, but for whatever reason he was never really able to put it all together as a tackle. Gallery does get a bit of redemption in the fact that, since he was moved to guard prior to the 2007 season, he seems to have found his niche in the league and some think he may even be capable of becoming a Pro Bowl caliber guard within the next couple years. Despite this, virtually all NFL teams would agree that not even a Pro Bowl guard is worth the #2 pick, and it's rare a guard would ever be picked in the top half of round 1. Players selected later: WR Larry Fitzgerald #3, QB Philip Rivers #4, S Sean Taylor #5.
2. Ahmad Carroll, Cornerback, #25 Overall Pick, Green Bay Packers - Carroll may have one of the strongest nicknames in all of football: "Highway 28" (28 being his number) for the fact that opposing receivers routinely speed past him into the endzone. His other nickname, also very appropriate, is "Grabby Smurf" for his tendency to commit illegal contact penalties (i.e. pass interference). In Carroll's career, he played 34 games with the Packers, starting 28, and was flagged 33 times (26 for coverage violations) for 256 penalty yards (on only 24 accepted penalties) and allowed 11 touchdown receptions. Oh, and he did have 3 interceptions, so he's got that going for him. Let's not forget the arrest in May 2007 on charges of carrying a concealed weapon, carrying a pistol without a license, possession of MDMA (ecstasy) and possession of a firearm during commitment of a felony. No surprise, he's been out of football since then. Players selected later: CB Chris Gamble #28, LB Karlos Dansby #33, S Bob Sanders #44.
1. Rashaun Woods, Wide Receiver, #31 Overall Pick, San Francisco 49ers - So how does the #31 overall pick make his way onto this list? How does a career total of 7 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdown sound? Not so good for a first round pick. Woods career production all came in his rookie season in 2004. He spent the 2005 season on injured reserve with torn ligaments in his thumb, and was traded in April 2006 to the San Diego Chargers. He would be cut by the Chargers in August of 2006 without playing a down and would subsequently be offered a contract with the Denver Broncos but fail the team's physical and not be signed. He later worked out for the Vikings, but was not signed and his been out of football since the end of 2006. Players selected later: TE Benjamin Watson #32, LB Karlos Dansby #33, S Bob Sanders #44.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Top 5 Worst Draft Picks - 2003 NFL Draft
Part IV in my series examining the five worst first round NFL draft picks each year since 2000. The 2003 was one of the more polarized drafts, with most picks either falling into the category of huge success or spectacular bust. Led by Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Carson Palmer at #1 overall, 10 of the 32 first round picks, including six of the first 11 taken, have made the Pro Bowl already. The rest, however, have left much to be desired.
5. Bryant Johnson, #17 Overall Pick, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals - Johnson's most noteable accomplishment in the NFL is having been drafted by the same team that drafted Anquan Boldin in the second round of this same draft. Johnson was third in the NFL in receptions among rookies in 2003, but his teammate Boldin, taken #54 overall, was the leader. Johnson certainly never lived up to the Pro Bowl talent of his teammate, and with the Cardinals selecting another receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, in the top 5 in the 2004 draft, Johnson has never been more than a third option. He joined the San Francisco 49ers on a 1-year contract in 2008 after his rookie contract expired. Players selected later: RB Willis McGahee #23, TE Dallas Clark #24, RB Larry Johnson #27.
4. Jonathan Sullivan, #6 Overall Pick, Defensive Tackle, New Orleans Saints - Sullivan led a short and ineffective career in New Orleans. He failed to produce anywhere near the level of a #6 overall pick, and was traded to the New England Patriots prior to the 2006 season for backup wide receiver Bethel Johnson. Sullivan was arrested the same month he was traded on marijuana, among other things, charges and was released by New England in October of 2006. He has been out of football since. Players selected later: DT Kevin Williams #9, DE Terrell Suggs #10, CB Marcus Trufant #11.
3. Kyle Boller, #19 Overall Pick, Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens/Rex Grossman, #22 Overall Pick, Quarterback, Chicago Bears - I lump these two quarterbacks together because their careers have followed very similar paths. Selected around the same time in the first round, each joined a strong defensive team that had significant aspirations, and neither was able to deliver. Boller has spent most of his time in Baltimore struggling to keep the starting job, despite starting 16 games in 2004. He missed 7 games in 2005 with turf toe and in 2006 the Ravens acquired Titans QB Steve McNair in a trade and he would lead the team the next two years. Even when McNair was hurt, which was a lot in 2007, Boller struggled to keep the backup job ahead of rookie sixth round pick Troy Smith. Grossman has been the subject of much disappointment in Chicago as he's shown flashes of being a quality quarterback and he has the physical tools, but he has been wildly inconsistent (to be kind) and has had games where he seems to be making plays for the other team. Despite this, since drafting Grossman, the Bears have made little attempt to upgrade the position with Brian Griese being the only veteran given a shot in 2006 and 2007 and no high draft picks invested in a replacement. Grossman lost the starting job as a rookie to the stellar tandem of Kordell Stewart and Chris Chandler, and missed most of 2005 with a broken ankle. And good news Bears fans, he's expected to compete for the starting job again in2008. Players selected later: RB Willis McGahee #23, RB Larry Johnson #27, QB Tony Romo (Undrafted).
2. Byron Leftwich, #7 Overall Pick, Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars - Leftwich, a big quarterback with a huge arm, was expected to be the franchise QB the Jags needed to succeed Mark Brunell. Leftwich had some injury concerns in college but Jacksonville overlooked these to make the pick ahead of the Minnesota Vikings who had traded up, presumably to take Leftwich, then mysteriously missed their pick. (The Vikings ended up taken future Pro Bowl tackle Kevin Williams at #9.) Leftwich would play well for Jacksonville when he started, but recurring ankle injuries began to derail his career, and as he continued to miss time, backup David Garrard began to emerge as a quality quarterback himself. After the two split time at the position in 2006 due to Leftwich's injuries, Leftwich returned to the starting lineup for the playoffs, a controversial move by coach Jack Del Rio. The Jaguars offense struggled in the postseason on the road at New England, losing in the first round. Early in the following offseason, Del Rio named Leftwich the starting QB to the surprise of many. Leftwich would struggle in the preseason and be cut just prior to the start of the season. He would eventually sign with the Falcons and earn the starting job in week 5, playing well before again going out with an ankle injury, and though he returned briefly in week 11, he would lose the starting job to Joey Harrington and he was cut following the 2007 season. Players selected later: DT Kevin Williams #9, DE Terrell Suggs #10, CB Marcus Trufant #11.
1. Charles Rogers, Wide Receiver, #2 Overall Pick, Detroit Lions - Rogers is another player, like Leftwich, whose career never really got going because of injury issues. A popular pick by Lions fans at the time, Rogers was coming from nearby Michigan State University and expected to be the wide receiving threat that second year QB Joey Harrington needed to get the offense going. Unfortunately, just five games into his rookie campaign, Rogers broke his collarbone and was forced to miss the entire season. The following year, on the third play of the season, Rogers again broke his collarbone and again was forced to miss the season. In his third year, 2005, Rogers was suspended by the NFL for four games for his third violation of the league's substance abuse policy. It was later reported that Rogers failed drug tests each year while at Michigan State. Rogers would play very little after returning from the suspension and would be released just days prior to the 2006 season. Players selected later: WR Andre Johnson #3, CB Terence Newman #5, DT Kevin Williams #9.
Up Next: 2004, the year of the Wide Receiver.
5. Bryant Johnson, #17 Overall Pick, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals - Johnson's most noteable accomplishment in the NFL is having been drafted by the same team that drafted Anquan Boldin in the second round of this same draft. Johnson was third in the NFL in receptions among rookies in 2003, but his teammate Boldin, taken #54 overall, was the leader. Johnson certainly never lived up to the Pro Bowl talent of his teammate, and with the Cardinals selecting another receiver, Larry Fitzgerald, in the top 5 in the 2004 draft, Johnson has never been more than a third option. He joined the San Francisco 49ers on a 1-year contract in 2008 after his rookie contract expired. Players selected later: RB Willis McGahee #23, TE Dallas Clark #24, RB Larry Johnson #27.
4. Jonathan Sullivan, #6 Overall Pick, Defensive Tackle, New Orleans Saints - Sullivan led a short and ineffective career in New Orleans. He failed to produce anywhere near the level of a #6 overall pick, and was traded to the New England Patriots prior to the 2006 season for backup wide receiver Bethel Johnson. Sullivan was arrested the same month he was traded on marijuana, among other things, charges and was released by New England in October of 2006. He has been out of football since. Players selected later: DT Kevin Williams #9, DE Terrell Suggs #10, CB Marcus Trufant #11.
3. Kyle Boller, #19 Overall Pick, Quarterback, Baltimore Ravens/Rex Grossman, #22 Overall Pick, Quarterback, Chicago Bears - I lump these two quarterbacks together because their careers have followed very similar paths. Selected around the same time in the first round, each joined a strong defensive team that had significant aspirations, and neither was able to deliver. Boller has spent most of his time in Baltimore struggling to keep the starting job, despite starting 16 games in 2004. He missed 7 games in 2005 with turf toe and in 2006 the Ravens acquired Titans QB Steve McNair in a trade and he would lead the team the next two years. Even when McNair was hurt, which was a lot in 2007, Boller struggled to keep the backup job ahead of rookie sixth round pick Troy Smith. Grossman has been the subject of much disappointment in Chicago as he's shown flashes of being a quality quarterback and he has the physical tools, but he has been wildly inconsistent (to be kind) and has had games where he seems to be making plays for the other team. Despite this, since drafting Grossman, the Bears have made little attempt to upgrade the position with Brian Griese being the only veteran given a shot in 2006 and 2007 and no high draft picks invested in a replacement. Grossman lost the starting job as a rookie to the stellar tandem of Kordell Stewart and Chris Chandler, and missed most of 2005 with a broken ankle. And good news Bears fans, he's expected to compete for the starting job again in2008. Players selected later: RB Willis McGahee #23, RB Larry Johnson #27, QB Tony Romo (Undrafted).
2. Byron Leftwich, #7 Overall Pick, Quarterback, Jacksonville Jaguars - Leftwich, a big quarterback with a huge arm, was expected to be the franchise QB the Jags needed to succeed Mark Brunell. Leftwich had some injury concerns in college but Jacksonville overlooked these to make the pick ahead of the Minnesota Vikings who had traded up, presumably to take Leftwich, then mysteriously missed their pick. (The Vikings ended up taken future Pro Bowl tackle Kevin Williams at #9.) Leftwich would play well for Jacksonville when he started, but recurring ankle injuries began to derail his career, and as he continued to miss time, backup David Garrard began to emerge as a quality quarterback himself. After the two split time at the position in 2006 due to Leftwich's injuries, Leftwich returned to the starting lineup for the playoffs, a controversial move by coach Jack Del Rio. The Jaguars offense struggled in the postseason on the road at New England, losing in the first round. Early in the following offseason, Del Rio named Leftwich the starting QB to the surprise of many. Leftwich would struggle in the preseason and be cut just prior to the start of the season. He would eventually sign with the Falcons and earn the starting job in week 5, playing well before again going out with an ankle injury, and though he returned briefly in week 11, he would lose the starting job to Joey Harrington and he was cut following the 2007 season. Players selected later: DT Kevin Williams #9, DE Terrell Suggs #10, CB Marcus Trufant #11.
1. Charles Rogers, Wide Receiver, #2 Overall Pick, Detroit Lions - Rogers is another player, like Leftwich, whose career never really got going because of injury issues. A popular pick by Lions fans at the time, Rogers was coming from nearby Michigan State University and expected to be the wide receiving threat that second year QB Joey Harrington needed to get the offense going. Unfortunately, just five games into his rookie campaign, Rogers broke his collarbone and was forced to miss the entire season. The following year, on the third play of the season, Rogers again broke his collarbone and again was forced to miss the season. In his third year, 2005, Rogers was suspended by the NFL for four games for his third violation of the league's substance abuse policy. It was later reported that Rogers failed drug tests each year while at Michigan State. Rogers would play very little after returning from the suspension and would be released just days prior to the 2006 season. Players selected later: WR Andre Johnson #3, CB Terence Newman #5, DT Kevin Williams #9.
Up Next: 2004, the year of the Wide Receiver.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Top 5 Worst Draft Picks - 2002 NFL Draft
Part 3 of my series ranking the five worst first round draft picks in each NFL Draft since 2000. The top 6 picks of the 2002 draft includes five legitimate busts and one player that has looked dominant at times but has also gone through major bouts of inconsistency. While #2 overall pick Julius Peppers may be the best player selected in the top 10, it's hard to decide who deserves the title of worst. Let's grind this one out.
5. Wendall Bryant, Defensive Tackle, #12 Overall Pick, Arizona Cardinals - Bryant led a short NFL career, playing just 3 years and starting only 9 games for the Cardinals. Bryant played just 3 games in his final season and finished his brief career with 1.5 sacks, certainly not the production a team is seeking with the #12 overall pick. Players selected later: WR Donte Stallworth (#13), TE Jeremy Shockey (#14), DT Albert Haynesworth (#15).
4. William Green, Running Back, #16 Overall Pick, Cleveland Browns - The Browns really should have seen the writing on the wall before drafting Green, but his potential and physical tools overshadowed his multiple suspensions for marijuana in college. After a decent rookie campaign, Green had a tumultuous second season that was cut short by a four game suspension for a drunk driving and marijuana arrest. While suspended, Green was stabbed in the back (yes, literally) by his fiancee and suspended for the remainder of the season "for treatment purposes." He would return and have an ineffective year in 2004, including getting ejected before a game against the Steelers for fighting with Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter. He finally had an injury-riddled final season in 2005 and was released prior to the 2006 season. Players selected later: WR Javon Walker (#20), S Ed Reed (#24), CB Lito Sheppard (#26).
3. Patrick Ramsey, Quarterback, #32 Overall Pick, Washington Redskins - The first selection of the Steve Spurrier era in Washington, Ramsey was a record-setting college QB expected to light up the NFL. Unfortunately, Spurrier's system simply didn't translate into the NFL and Ramsey was the poster child for its failure, nearly leading the league in sacks in his only full year as starter in 2003. When Joe Gibbs returned to the team as head coach in 2004, Ramsey was moved in and out of the lineup due to injuries and ineffectiveness of Mark Brunell, whom Gibbs traded for upon his return. Ramsey was finally dealt to the New York Jets prior to 2006, and spent that season backing up Chad Pennington before moving on to backup Jay Cutler in Denver in 2007. Players selected later: C LeCharles Bentley (#44), RB Clinton Portis (#51), QB David Garrard (#108).
2. Joey Harrington, Quarterback, #3 Overall Pick, Detroit Lions - In a first round, and really a draft altogether, that saw poor quality at the quarterback position, Harrington earns the #2 spot. Named the starter prior to his rookie season, Harrington would start every game of his first two years in the league and post NFL record lows of yards per attempt each season, the two lowest totals since 1960. Harrington's ineffectiveness would eventually lead to his benching in the 2005 season for veteran journeyman Jeff Garcia. Later in the year, with the team still struggling offensively, Harrington would return to the starting role and play decently enough, although it wouldn't be enough to keep him in Detroit. He was traded to Miami following the 2005 season and spent the year as a backup/replacement for Dolphins starter Daunte Culpepper who spent much of the year injured. A roller-coaster 2006 season, including a game where he compiled a rating of 107.4 and a game with a rating of 0.0, Harrington was released and eventually signed with the Atlanta Falcons to back up Michael Vick. When Vick was suspended and imprisoned, Harrington was thrust into the starting role but was too inconsistent and ended up splitting time with former Jaguar QB Byron Leftwich. Harrington has signed to return to Atlanta in 2008. Players selected later: OT Bryant McKinnie (#7), S Roy Williams (#8), DT John Henderson (#9).
1. David Carr, Quarterback, #1 Overall Pick, Houston Texans - David Carr's failure to be the franchise quarterback for the expansion Texans helped the team become the least successful expansion team in NFL history, although the blame is certainly not entirely his. Carr was seemingly doomed to fail from the beginning as the franchise never built an adequate offensive line (starting with their #1 expansion draft pick, left tackle Tony Bosselli, who never played a down for the team) and made numerous questionable personnel moves in its first few years. Carr's struggles on the field were compounded with a confidence and cockiness that consistently rubbed the fans the wrong way, earning him little respect among the fan base despite the praise his "talent" received from NFL insiders. When The Texans replaced their first coach Dom Capers in 2006 following a 2-14 2005 season, new coach Gary Kubiak agreed to an option in Carr's contract worth an additional two years, a big mistake. Carr would go on to struggle again in 2006 and lead the Texans to another 6-10 record while further alienating fans, prompting the team to cut him after the season and trade for a new QB. Carr would sign on with Panthers as a backup in 2007, but he would again find the fans' bad graces and even lose the backup job to undrafted rookie Matt Moore. Carr also gained the not-so-flattering nickname "Mr. Mittens" for wearing alternating white and black gloves on both hands during home and away games. Carr was signed to be a backup for the New York Giants in 2008. Players selected later: DE Julius Peppers (#2), OT Bryant McKinnie (#7), S Roy Williams (#8).
Next up: 2003 and the birth of the Lions Wide Receiver fetish.
5. Wendall Bryant, Defensive Tackle, #12 Overall Pick, Arizona Cardinals - Bryant led a short NFL career, playing just 3 years and starting only 9 games for the Cardinals. Bryant played just 3 games in his final season and finished his brief career with 1.5 sacks, certainly not the production a team is seeking with the #12 overall pick. Players selected later: WR Donte Stallworth (#13), TE Jeremy Shockey (#14), DT Albert Haynesworth (#15).
4. William Green, Running Back, #16 Overall Pick, Cleveland Browns - The Browns really should have seen the writing on the wall before drafting Green, but his potential and physical tools overshadowed his multiple suspensions for marijuana in college. After a decent rookie campaign, Green had a tumultuous second season that was cut short by a four game suspension for a drunk driving and marijuana arrest. While suspended, Green was stabbed in the back (yes, literally) by his fiancee and suspended for the remainder of the season "for treatment purposes." He would return and have an ineffective year in 2004, including getting ejected before a game against the Steelers for fighting with Pittsburgh linebacker Joey Porter. He finally had an injury-riddled final season in 2005 and was released prior to the 2006 season. Players selected later: WR Javon Walker (#20), S Ed Reed (#24), CB Lito Sheppard (#26).
3. Patrick Ramsey, Quarterback, #32 Overall Pick, Washington Redskins - The first selection of the Steve Spurrier era in Washington, Ramsey was a record-setting college QB expected to light up the NFL. Unfortunately, Spurrier's system simply didn't translate into the NFL and Ramsey was the poster child for its failure, nearly leading the league in sacks in his only full year as starter in 2003. When Joe Gibbs returned to the team as head coach in 2004, Ramsey was moved in and out of the lineup due to injuries and ineffectiveness of Mark Brunell, whom Gibbs traded for upon his return. Ramsey was finally dealt to the New York Jets prior to 2006, and spent that season backing up Chad Pennington before moving on to backup Jay Cutler in Denver in 2007. Players selected later: C LeCharles Bentley (#44), RB Clinton Portis (#51), QB David Garrard (#108).
2. Joey Harrington, Quarterback, #3 Overall Pick, Detroit Lions - In a first round, and really a draft altogether, that saw poor quality at the quarterback position, Harrington earns the #2 spot. Named the starter prior to his rookie season, Harrington would start every game of his first two years in the league and post NFL record lows of yards per attempt each season, the two lowest totals since 1960. Harrington's ineffectiveness would eventually lead to his benching in the 2005 season for veteran journeyman Jeff Garcia. Later in the year, with the team still struggling offensively, Harrington would return to the starting role and play decently enough, although it wouldn't be enough to keep him in Detroit. He was traded to Miami following the 2005 season and spent the year as a backup/replacement for Dolphins starter Daunte Culpepper who spent much of the year injured. A roller-coaster 2006 season, including a game where he compiled a rating of 107.4 and a game with a rating of 0.0, Harrington was released and eventually signed with the Atlanta Falcons to back up Michael Vick. When Vick was suspended and imprisoned, Harrington was thrust into the starting role but was too inconsistent and ended up splitting time with former Jaguar QB Byron Leftwich. Harrington has signed to return to Atlanta in 2008. Players selected later: OT Bryant McKinnie (#7), S Roy Williams (#8), DT John Henderson (#9).
1. David Carr, Quarterback, #1 Overall Pick, Houston Texans - David Carr's failure to be the franchise quarterback for the expansion Texans helped the team become the least successful expansion team in NFL history, although the blame is certainly not entirely his. Carr was seemingly doomed to fail from the beginning as the franchise never built an adequate offensive line (starting with their #1 expansion draft pick, left tackle Tony Bosselli, who never played a down for the team) and made numerous questionable personnel moves in its first few years. Carr's struggles on the field were compounded with a confidence and cockiness that consistently rubbed the fans the wrong way, earning him little respect among the fan base despite the praise his "talent" received from NFL insiders. When The Texans replaced their first coach Dom Capers in 2006 following a 2-14 2005 season, new coach Gary Kubiak agreed to an option in Carr's contract worth an additional two years, a big mistake. Carr would go on to struggle again in 2006 and lead the Texans to another 6-10 record while further alienating fans, prompting the team to cut him after the season and trade for a new QB. Carr would sign on with Panthers as a backup in 2007, but he would again find the fans' bad graces and even lose the backup job to undrafted rookie Matt Moore. Carr also gained the not-so-flattering nickname "Mr. Mittens" for wearing alternating white and black gloves on both hands during home and away games. Carr was signed to be a backup for the New York Giants in 2008. Players selected later: DE Julius Peppers (#2), OT Bryant McKinnie (#7), S Roy Williams (#8).
Next up: 2003 and the birth of the Lions Wide Receiver fetish.
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Top 5 Worst Draft Picks - 2001 NFL Draft
Part 2 of my series ranking the five worst first round draft picks in each NFL Draft since 2000. This draft looks at first glance like one of the worst overall first rounds in recent memory, with very few impact players selected. With the exception of LaDainian Tomlinson, the #5 overall pick, this draft is riddled with players that have not panned out over the long haul for various reasons.
5. Leonard Davis, Offensive Tackle, #2 Overall Pick, Arizona Cardinals/Gerrard Warren, Defensive Tackle, #3 Overall Pick, Cleveland Browns - While both players have been starters in the NFL and have had their moments of quality football, neither has lived up to his draft position. Davis simply turned out to be too big to play at tackle, and after many rough years in the desert, finally found his niche as a guard with the Dallas Cowboys, playing well enough (and benefitting from the Cowboys' popularity) to make the Pro Bowl in 2007. Warren washed out of Cleveland after just 4 seasons, and went on to an unspectacular pair of injury-riddled season with the Broncos before finally landing in Oakland where is currently plays. Both of these players find their spot on the list thanks to the man at #5. Players selected later: DE Justin Smith (#4), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5), DE Richard Seymour (#6).
4. David Terrell, Wide Receiver, #8 Overall Pick, Chicago Bears - Terrell had all the physical tools to be a successful wideout in the league, but never was capable of putting them all together. Despite some flashes of brilliance, Terrell lasted only 4 years with the Bears before being cut. He got looks from the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, but didn't stick and is currently out of football. Players selected later: LB Dan Morgan (#11), DT Marcus Stroud (#13), WR Santana Moss (#16).
3. Jamal Reynolds, Defensive End, #10 Overall Pick, Green Bay Packers - Reynolds struggled to gain a foothold in Green Bay due to the emergence of teammate Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila at the defensive end position. Reynolds lasted just 3 years with the Pack recording only 3 sacks before eventually being traded to the Colts. He failed his physical prior to the trade, however, and the trade was declared void and Reynolds was released by the Packers. He would get another shot with the Browns prior to the 2004 season, but wouldn't make it to the start of the season before being cut and has been out of football since. Players selected later: LB Dan Morgan (#11), DT Marcus Stroud (#13), DT Casey Hampton (#19).
2. Willie Middlebrooks, Cornerback, #24 Overall Pick, Denver Broncos - Perhaps the reason Terrell and Warren got a chance with Denver is because the Broncos own pick from this draft was so bad. In a very unimpressive five-year career with the Broncos, Middlebrooks started just 1 game and dealt with numerous off-field issues, culminating in an arrest on New Year's Eve 2004 after an alleged fight with his girlfriend. Middlebrooks would finally be cut and spend the 2005 season with the 49ers before returning to Denver for the 2006 season. He did not make the Broncos roster in 2006 and signed with the CFL's Toronto Argonauts in 2008. Players selected later: WR Reggie Wayne (#30), TE Todd Heap (#31), WR Chad Johnson (#36).
1. Michael Vick, Quarterback, #1 Overall Pick, Atlanta Falcons - It was very difficult deciding where to slot Mr. Vick in this list, as his on-the-field accomplishments actually aren't too bad. The problem is the damage that he did to the franchise with his conviction for dog fighting in 2007. Since he was officially charged in the summer of '07, the Falcons organization went into a downward spiral. First Vick was found guilty and spent the 2007 season in prison, then head coach Bobby Petrino (in his first year with the team) abruptly resigned to take a college coaching job, and the Falcons went on to a dismal 4-12 record. In Vick's active seasons, the Falcons consistently were among the league leaders in rushing, but their passing offense always struggled. With Vick at the helm, the Falcons found success enough to make the playoffs twice, losing to the Eagles both times, including once in the NFC Championship Game. Players selected later: RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5), DE Richard Seymour (#6), QB Drew Brees (#32).
Up next: 2002 and the expansion Texans...
5. Leonard Davis, Offensive Tackle, #2 Overall Pick, Arizona Cardinals/Gerrard Warren, Defensive Tackle, #3 Overall Pick, Cleveland Browns - While both players have been starters in the NFL and have had their moments of quality football, neither has lived up to his draft position. Davis simply turned out to be too big to play at tackle, and after many rough years in the desert, finally found his niche as a guard with the Dallas Cowboys, playing well enough (and benefitting from the Cowboys' popularity) to make the Pro Bowl in 2007. Warren washed out of Cleveland after just 4 seasons, and went on to an unspectacular pair of injury-riddled season with the Broncos before finally landing in Oakland where is currently plays. Both of these players find their spot on the list thanks to the man at #5. Players selected later: DE Justin Smith (#4), RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5), DE Richard Seymour (#6).
4. David Terrell, Wide Receiver, #8 Overall Pick, Chicago Bears - Terrell had all the physical tools to be a successful wideout in the league, but never was capable of putting them all together. Despite some flashes of brilliance, Terrell lasted only 4 years with the Bears before being cut. He got looks from the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots, but didn't stick and is currently out of football. Players selected later: LB Dan Morgan (#11), DT Marcus Stroud (#13), WR Santana Moss (#16).
3. Jamal Reynolds, Defensive End, #10 Overall Pick, Green Bay Packers - Reynolds struggled to gain a foothold in Green Bay due to the emergence of teammate Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila at the defensive end position. Reynolds lasted just 3 years with the Pack recording only 3 sacks before eventually being traded to the Colts. He failed his physical prior to the trade, however, and the trade was declared void and Reynolds was released by the Packers. He would get another shot with the Browns prior to the 2004 season, but wouldn't make it to the start of the season before being cut and has been out of football since. Players selected later: LB Dan Morgan (#11), DT Marcus Stroud (#13), DT Casey Hampton (#19).
2. Willie Middlebrooks, Cornerback, #24 Overall Pick, Denver Broncos - Perhaps the reason Terrell and Warren got a chance with Denver is because the Broncos own pick from this draft was so bad. In a very unimpressive five-year career with the Broncos, Middlebrooks started just 1 game and dealt with numerous off-field issues, culminating in an arrest on New Year's Eve 2004 after an alleged fight with his girlfriend. Middlebrooks would finally be cut and spend the 2005 season with the 49ers before returning to Denver for the 2006 season. He did not make the Broncos roster in 2006 and signed with the CFL's Toronto Argonauts in 2008. Players selected later: WR Reggie Wayne (#30), TE Todd Heap (#31), WR Chad Johnson (#36).
1. Michael Vick, Quarterback, #1 Overall Pick, Atlanta Falcons - It was very difficult deciding where to slot Mr. Vick in this list, as his on-the-field accomplishments actually aren't too bad. The problem is the damage that he did to the franchise with his conviction for dog fighting in 2007. Since he was officially charged in the summer of '07, the Falcons organization went into a downward spiral. First Vick was found guilty and spent the 2007 season in prison, then head coach Bobby Petrino (in his first year with the team) abruptly resigned to take a college coaching job, and the Falcons went on to a dismal 4-12 record. In Vick's active seasons, the Falcons consistently were among the league leaders in rushing, but their passing offense always struggled. With Vick at the helm, the Falcons found success enough to make the playoffs twice, losing to the Eagles both times, including once in the NFC Championship Game. Players selected later: RB LaDainian Tomlinson (#5), DE Richard Seymour (#6), QB Drew Brees (#32).
Up next: 2002 and the expansion Texans...
Shoulda-been Top 5 - 2000 NFL Draft
Earlier, Chris discussed the top 5 busts from the first round of the 2000 NFL draft. With that in mind, and with the benefit of hindsight, I present my "Shoulda-been" list of the five players who should have been the top 5 picks in that draft. Note: I made my picks without consideration for which team was picking at the spot. My picks are "BOB" (best on board) selections.
Honorable Mention: Jamal Lewis - JLew has had a solid career with some very impressive numbers, but his criminal record and the fact that he's run behind a solid O-line throughout his career bumped him out of the top 5.
Honorable Mention: Plaxico Burress - Burress is arguably the best wideout to come out of the 2000 draft, but hasn't in my mind proven to be a top 5 pick. He's a guy with good height who's a big target in the red zone, but he doesn't have the speed to run away from people, making him better suited to a role as a #2 receiver. And the fact that you could get Laveranues Coles or Darrell Jackson in the third round caused Plax to slide out of the top 5.
Honorable Mention: Corey Simon - Simon was a monster in the middle of the Eagles' D-line, but his career was a short seven years. Everyone in my top 5 is still playing and, for the most part, still playing at a high level.
5. Adalius Thomas - Thomas was the second-best linebacker in the 2000 draft, behind the guy second on this list. He's a versatile player with speed, strength, and a nose for the ball, and after seven years, he still looks to have many good years ahead.
4. John Abraham - When healthy, Abraham has been one of the most feared pass-rushers in the league. He's consistently put up double-digit sack numbers... when he's been healthy. Were it not for that caveat, he'd be higher on the list.
3. Shaun Alexander - Alexander was once among the top 2 or 3 backs in the league, and used to reign supreme in fantasy drafts. Recently, his numbers have fallen off, but he's had about 300 more career rushing yards than Lewis on only 50 more carries, and has twice as many touchdowns. Five straight seasons of 1100+ rushing yards and a then-record 27 TD season make it hard to put Alexander this low, but the guys ahead of him are just too good.
2. Brian Urlacher - If you wanted to pick a guy to build your defense around in that draft, this is your guy. Urlacher's been one of the most consistent linebackers in the league, playing at an All-Pro caliber every year. You can pencil him in for 120 tackles, 5 sacks and a pick or two every year.
1. Tom Brady - Much as I hate to admit it, Brady is the best player to come out of the 2000 draft. Some (including myself) might argue he's not the best athlete, he doesn't have the best arm, he's a product of Belicheater's genius, but there's no arguing with the results he's had. Despite not having until last year a star wideout to throw to, Brady has put up impressive numbers every year (and we saw last year what he can do with a real receiving corps), and the most impressive number he's put up is the most important: 100 career wins (combined regular and post season), including three Super Bowls (most of them legitimate).
Honorable Mention: Jamal Lewis - JLew has had a solid career with some very impressive numbers, but his criminal record and the fact that he's run behind a solid O-line throughout his career bumped him out of the top 5.
Honorable Mention: Plaxico Burress - Burress is arguably the best wideout to come out of the 2000 draft, but hasn't in my mind proven to be a top 5 pick. He's a guy with good height who's a big target in the red zone, but he doesn't have the speed to run away from people, making him better suited to a role as a #2 receiver. And the fact that you could get Laveranues Coles or Darrell Jackson in the third round caused Plax to slide out of the top 5.
Honorable Mention: Corey Simon - Simon was a monster in the middle of the Eagles' D-line, but his career was a short seven years. Everyone in my top 5 is still playing and, for the most part, still playing at a high level.
5. Adalius Thomas - Thomas was the second-best linebacker in the 2000 draft, behind the guy second on this list. He's a versatile player with speed, strength, and a nose for the ball, and after seven years, he still looks to have many good years ahead.
4. John Abraham - When healthy, Abraham has been one of the most feared pass-rushers in the league. He's consistently put up double-digit sack numbers... when he's been healthy. Were it not for that caveat, he'd be higher on the list.
3. Shaun Alexander - Alexander was once among the top 2 or 3 backs in the league, and used to reign supreme in fantasy drafts. Recently, his numbers have fallen off, but he's had about 300 more career rushing yards than Lewis on only 50 more carries, and has twice as many touchdowns. Five straight seasons of 1100+ rushing yards and a then-record 27 TD season make it hard to put Alexander this low, but the guys ahead of him are just too good.
2. Brian Urlacher - If you wanted to pick a guy to build your defense around in that draft, this is your guy. Urlacher's been one of the most consistent linebackers in the league, playing at an All-Pro caliber every year. You can pencil him in for 120 tackles, 5 sacks and a pick or two every year.
1. Tom Brady - Much as I hate to admit it, Brady is the best player to come out of the 2000 draft. Some (including myself) might argue he's not the best athlete, he doesn't have the best arm, he's a product of Belicheater's genius, but there's no arguing with the results he's had. Despite not having until last year a star wideout to throw to, Brady has put up impressive numbers every year (and we saw last year what he can do with a real receiving corps), and the most impressive number he's put up is the most important: 100 career wins (combined regular and post season), including three Super Bowls (most of them legitimate).
Top 5 Worst Draft Picks - 2000 NFL Draft
Over the next several days I will be going through the first round of each NFL draft since the year 2000 and highlighting the five worst selections of each draft. Inevitably there will be some decent players that will find their way onto this list, and many will do so not because of how they perform but because of the players their team could have selected. Consequently, this is more of a reflection on the teams picking than the players themselves. Let's dive right in.
5. Peter Warrick, Wide Receiver, #4 Overall Pick, Cincinnati Bengals - A playmaking wideout at Florida State, Warrick's career was short (he was out of the NFL by 2006) and while he had a decent year in 2003, an injury in 2004 led to the emergence of teammate T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Warrick was released before the start of the 2005 season. He never lived up to the billing of a top 5 pick. Players selected later: RB Jamal Lewis (#5), DT Corey Simon (#6), WR Plaxico Burress (#8).
4. Ron Dayne, Running Back, #11 Overall Pick, New York Giants - Although Dayne was a Heisman Trophy Winner in college at Wisconsin, his skill set never quite seemed to translate to the NFL. Despite his size, Dayne was never able to fill the role of a short-yardage back that the Giants were hoping for to complement Tiki Barber in their backfield. Dayne gained a reputation for dancing too much in the backfield and not taking hits, and although he managed some decent seasons in Denver and later Houston, Dayne certainly never lived up to the #11 pick he was taken at. Players selected later: DE Shaun Ellis (#12), DE John Abraham (#13), RB Shaun Alexander (#19).
3. Courtney Brown, Defensive End, #1 Overall Pick, Cleveland Browns - You know this draft was bad when Brown only comes in 3rd. Brown and college teammate LaVar Arrington of Penn State went 1-2 in this draft, and in hindsight it appears Arrington would have been a far better choice for the Browns who were in just their second draft since returning to the league. Brown did record 4.5 sacks and 70 tackles in a productive rookie campaign, but he would record that same 4.5 sacks the next season before he began dealing with injury problems that would plague him the rest of his career. He would record just 8 sacks after those first two years and, after spending 2006 on the Denver Broncos IR, he was out of football by 2007. Players selected later: LB LaVar Arrington (#2), OT Chris Samuels (#3), RB Jamal Lewis (#5).
2. Rashard Anderson, Cornerback, #23 Overall Pick, Carolina Panthers - Anderson earns this spot not just because of his lack of on-field production (1 interception in 27 career games), but because of the way his career ended. Anderson was suspended for a year prior to the 2002 season for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and failed to be reinstated after that time expired for having not met the requirements for reinstatement. He was finally reinstated following the 2003 season, and was released by the Panthers that same day. Players selected later: CB Ahmed Plummer (#24), LB Keith Bullock (#30), DE Darren Howard (#33).
1. Sebastian Janikowski, Kicker, #17 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders - One of the first in a long list of mind-boggling personnel decisions by the Raiders, Janikowski was only the fifth kicker selected in the first round in NFL history. Janikowski entered the NFL with a reputation and arrest record that would make Pacman Jones take notice, and his first years in the league followed suit with numerous arrests, mostly alcohol-related. Despite a career that has been okay on the field, the "Polish Powderkeg" has not been nearly the performer the Raiders would have needed to justify the first round pick and the legal problems that came with him. Players selected later: RB Shaun Alexander (#19), LB Keith Bullock (#30), K Neil Rackers (#169, the next kicker taken).
Next up: 2001, the Michael Vick Draft.
5. Peter Warrick, Wide Receiver, #4 Overall Pick, Cincinnati Bengals - A playmaking wideout at Florida State, Warrick's career was short (he was out of the NFL by 2006) and while he had a decent year in 2003, an injury in 2004 led to the emergence of teammate T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Warrick was released before the start of the 2005 season. He never lived up to the billing of a top 5 pick. Players selected later: RB Jamal Lewis (#5), DT Corey Simon (#6), WR Plaxico Burress (#8).
4. Ron Dayne, Running Back, #11 Overall Pick, New York Giants - Although Dayne was a Heisman Trophy Winner in college at Wisconsin, his skill set never quite seemed to translate to the NFL. Despite his size, Dayne was never able to fill the role of a short-yardage back that the Giants were hoping for to complement Tiki Barber in their backfield. Dayne gained a reputation for dancing too much in the backfield and not taking hits, and although he managed some decent seasons in Denver and later Houston, Dayne certainly never lived up to the #11 pick he was taken at. Players selected later: DE Shaun Ellis (#12), DE John Abraham (#13), RB Shaun Alexander (#19).
3. Courtney Brown, Defensive End, #1 Overall Pick, Cleveland Browns - You know this draft was bad when Brown only comes in 3rd. Brown and college teammate LaVar Arrington of Penn State went 1-2 in this draft, and in hindsight it appears Arrington would have been a far better choice for the Browns who were in just their second draft since returning to the league. Brown did record 4.5 sacks and 70 tackles in a productive rookie campaign, but he would record that same 4.5 sacks the next season before he began dealing with injury problems that would plague him the rest of his career. He would record just 8 sacks after those first two years and, after spending 2006 on the Denver Broncos IR, he was out of football by 2007. Players selected later: LB LaVar Arrington (#2), OT Chris Samuels (#3), RB Jamal Lewis (#5).
2. Rashard Anderson, Cornerback, #23 Overall Pick, Carolina Panthers - Anderson earns this spot not just because of his lack of on-field production (1 interception in 27 career games), but because of the way his career ended. Anderson was suspended for a year prior to the 2002 season for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and failed to be reinstated after that time expired for having not met the requirements for reinstatement. He was finally reinstated following the 2003 season, and was released by the Panthers that same day. Players selected later: CB Ahmed Plummer (#24), LB Keith Bullock (#30), DE Darren Howard (#33).
1. Sebastian Janikowski, Kicker, #17 Overall Pick, Oakland Raiders - One of the first in a long list of mind-boggling personnel decisions by the Raiders, Janikowski was only the fifth kicker selected in the first round in NFL history. Janikowski entered the NFL with a reputation and arrest record that would make Pacman Jones take notice, and his first years in the league followed suit with numerous arrests, mostly alcohol-related. Despite a career that has been okay on the field, the "Polish Powderkeg" has not been nearly the performer the Raiders would have needed to justify the first round pick and the legal problems that came with him. Players selected later: RB Shaun Alexander (#19), LB Keith Bullock (#30), K Neil Rackers (#169, the next kicker taken).
Next up: 2001, the Michael Vick Draft.
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