It's taken me a full four days to fully recover from the NFL massacre that we (and by we, I mean my picks) took last weekend. I'll admit, it wasn't my finest hour as I mustered just 1-3 straight up and a powerful 0-4 against the spread. My only solace is the fact that I am not alone in my time of failure as sports experts and gamblers everywhere are feeling the wrath of what may have been the most shocking Divisional playoff round of all time. Not only were the home teams, that is two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, just 1-3 on the weekend(#2 seeded Pittsburgh won), but one (Carolina) was blown out, one (New York) played so passively they never stood a chance and one (Tennessee) thoroughly outplayed their opponent and yet lost anyway.
Now going into the Conference Championship weekend, I'm at a loss for what to pick. The Wild Card weekend was crazy enough, with 4 road favorites in 4 games and 2 rookie QBs favored in their games. Last week seemed like it would bring normalcy back to the league as all four home teams were favored and one was even favored by double digits (Carolina). Alas, the football gods chose to torment us once again as none of the games played out as anticipated. Even the game I picked correctly, Pittsburgh to defeat San Diego, saw a combined 59 points scored, the most of the weekend, despite bitter cold and snow throughout.
So how am I supposed to have any confidence picking this weekend's games? Basically, I'm not, so I'm going to go with my gut and hope, which is about all anyone can do at this point. As usual, the odds are provided by Yahoo! Sports, and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only. If I'm not willing to put money on my own picks, I can assure you that you shouldn't either.
Game 1 - Sunday, January 18th, 2:00 CST
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: There are four possible outcomes of any given NFL game: blowout win by one team or the other, or close win by one team or the other. It's pretty much as simple as that. For most games, one or two of these outcomes can be eliminated and as a bettor you are choosing what you deem to be a fifty-fifty proposition between the remaining two outcomes. Some games are even so obvious as to have one clear outcome in your mind. For example, last year the New England Patriots opened as a 14 point favorite to defeat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. My gut reaction to this line the very first time I heard it was to take the Giants to cover and I was very confident in that decision. Why? Because I had decided that of the four possible outcomes for that game, the only one that would truly floor me was for the Giants to win in a rout. The other three (Giants or Pats win close, Pats win big) all seemed well within the realm of possibility. Of those three options, only one would result in the Pats covering (Pats win big), so the clear choice was on the Giants to cover. I'm not saying I picked the G-Men to win outright, because I didn't, but I did think they'd keep it close enough, and I was right.
Why am I telling you all of this? Simply because this game blows that line of thinking completely out of the water. Of the four potential outcomes to the Eagles-Cardinals game, NONE would floor me. So let's break this pick down a little further. First, the most surprising result would probably have to be the Cards in a rout. Are they capable of this? Absolutely, and the Eagles certainly could collapse if enough bad things happen early on. But the Cards pretty thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in their Wild Card win, yet only won by 6, so I'm going to say they won't blow out the Eagles (even though they just blew out the Panthers...).
The second possibility is that of a close game either way. So which team would I pick in this situation? That's a very tough question. I've ragged on Andy Reid many times in this blog for his questionable decision-making in crucial game situations, but can I really give the edge to a head coach in his first playoffs as the head hancho (Ken Whisenhunt) over a guy that's coached in four previous Conference Championships and a Super Bowl? I'm leaning no. And as much as I love and respect Kurt Warner, I would certainly give the Eagles the upper hand in the event of any late game drives with the game on the line, largely because of the Eagles' defense. I think Warner and McNabb really compare very well to each other in the postseason (despite McNabb's history of, uh, struggling late in tight games). Also, I'll take David Akers for a crucial field goal attempt over anyone not named Vinatieri any day of the week.
So what about the Eagles in a rout? This seems like a very possible scenario (the Eagles blew out the Cards when the teams met Thanksgiving night in Philly) and if either team looks like they have "Just Glad We Got This Far" potential, it's the Cardinals. If things start to go wrong for the Cards, that psyched-up home crowd could absolutely turn in a hurry, and the game could get out of hand quickly. I don't trust the Cardinals offensive line with a deficit when the run is disregarded by the defense. With all this said, the pick is now clear as mud.
The Pick: Eagles to win and cover, 33-24.
Game 2 - Sunday, January 18th, 5:30 CST
Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Take: Going back to my previously described theory, this game follows the traditional path for an NFL game. Can Pittsbugh win in a rout? Yes. Could this game be won by either team close? Yes. Can Baltimore win in a rout? NO. Could I be completely wrong about that? Sure, but I'm guessing I'm not. Yes, anytime you get a great defense involved in a game, the potential for a rout exists (teams like to make things worse when way behind and forced to become one-dimensional against great defenses). That said, if this game were in Baltimore or the Ravens had a veteran QB, a rout might happen. But in a bad weather game with a rookie QB on the road, I just don't see Baltimore running away with it. Especially given the way Baltimore performed offensively in relatively mild weather against Tennessee last weekend.
This brings me to a side note. Can we please, PLEASE, stop with the "He's Not a Rookie Anymore" bull about Joe Flacco or any other guy that's played more than 10 games? HE IS STILL A ROOKIE! I don't care how mature he seems, or how well he "runs the offense;" he's still prone to all the same mistakes of any rookie and the offensive coordinator and head coach are still going to treat him with kid gloves when it comes to gameplanning. Until you get two full offseasons (and you could argue that with year-round training regimens, most rookies don't even get one full offseason before they start their first season), you are still a rookie. Period. Thanks for hearing me out on that. Now back to our normally scheduled program.
So Baltimore won't win in a rout. Pittsburgh could, but I do tend to find this unlikely given the way these teams' previous meetings went (Pittsburgh won both by a combined 7 points). So why is the line where it's at? Because Vegas wants to get more money in on the Baltimore side, but gamblers keep finding ways to assure themselves that Pittsburgh is better and better than Baltimore. Thus, the line grows and grows. The other reasoning is that Baltimore may fall prey to exactly what I described above: fall behind early, become one-dimensional, make things worse against a great defense. As much as it pains me to say it, this seems very possible. I thought veteran playoff quarterback Philip Rivers would handle the Steelers pressure well last week and the game would remain close. It did not. The difference this week, other than the rookie QB, is that Baltimore's running game is not banged up like San Diego's was, and the Ravens seem like they will be more committed to the run precisely because of that rookie QB.
The Pick: The first part of this pick feels like a no-brainer here (I know I'm tempting the football gods by saying that...), and that is Pittsburgh to win. As for the spread, ugh, I'm going to reluctantly take Baltimore to cover. Final: 17-13.
Last week: 0-4 vs. Spread, 1-3 Straight Up
Playoffs: 1-7 vs. Spread, 2-6 Straight Up
Feel free to share your take with me and the other readers by commenting below.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Coaching Moves Continue
The NFL news continues to pile up this week as most teams start their offseason while the fortunate four prepare for conference championship weekend. The biggest news has to be the resignation/retirement of Indianapolis Colts coach Tony Dungy. This didn't necessarily come as a huge shock as Dungy had intimated before the season that this could very well be his final run; he had even gone so far as to name a successor. The Colts followed through with the promise to name Jim Caldwell, the Colts' quarterbacks coach for the past several years, as the new head coach despite some of the big names available.
The other big news is the filling of arguably the most high-profile coaching job opening in the league. With the Broncos naming former Patriots' offensive coordinator (and recent high school graduate, or so I'm told) Josh McDaniels as their new head coach, the number of coaching vacancies has dropped to three, although there remains the possibility that the Chiefs will let Herm Edwards go. This became an even greater possibility, even a likelihood, with the Chiefs hiring of Scott Pioli as general manager. Pioli is another former Patriot, meaning that the Patriots are having an impact on almost half of the league in one way or another. Whether this is for the best remains to be seen.
Looking at the history of Bill Belichick alum, success has been hard to come by. The most recent Belichick coaches have been mediocre at best. The first to leave the nest, former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, have found significant difficulty in their time as head men. Weis had a great start at Notre Dame four years ago making a BCS bowl in his first season (with star quarterback Brady Quinn leading the Irish), but Notre Dame lost that bowl game in a rout and has been in decline since, even going just 3-9 in 2007 before "bouncing back" to 7-6 last year. Although Weis signed a 10-year contract extension after that first successful season, Irish boosters were still willing to put together the $10 million+ that it would take to buy him out (read: fire him). This hasn't happened... yet.
For Crennel, the success didn't come until his third year as Cleveland Browns head coach. With quarterback issues plaguing the team in its first two years, the Browns rode a great season (resulting in a Pro Bowl) by QB Derek Anderson to a 10-6 record in 2007, yet the brutal AFC prevented the Browns from making the playoffs. This also happened to be a contract year for the third year pro Anderson, meaning the Browns were forced to commit significant money to a one-year wonder in case he carried that 2007 season into a quality career. Signs point to no on that, although Anderson suffered multiple injuries in 2008 and the Browns back-slid with a 6-10 record and Crennel is gone.
The third Belichick disciple to leave was Eric Mangini, who had replaced Crennel as Pats defensive coordinator in 2005. In 2006, Mangini took over the Patriots' division rival New York Jets when the aforementioned Herm Edwards was fired, and Mangini found immediate success making the playoffs in his first season. The following two years were tumultuous, however, as the Jets went 4-12 in 2007 due to quarterback Chad Pennington's season-long battle with shoulder injuries and followed that up with the Year of Favre in 2008. This season the Jets started out extremely well with much fanfare after the trade for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, but as the year dragged on and the weather grew colder and more unpredictable, so did Favre. The Jets offense lost its ability to move the ball consistently and the defense wasn't good enough to make up for it, leading the Jets to finish a disappointing 9-7 and fail to make the playoffs, costing Mangini his job.
Mangini bounced back quickly, landing the Browns job from Crennel, but the fact remains that Bill Belichick's coaching tree, while large in number, has yet to find significant success outside of Massachusetts. Does this mean McDaniels and Mangini will fail, or that Weis and the Irish will not rebound, or that Crennel should be out of football? Of course not. At least I hope not as a Broncos fan. It just means that not all great coaches produce other great coaches, and not all great assistants become quality head coaches (just ask Cam Cameron).
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
The other big news is the filling of arguably the most high-profile coaching job opening in the league. With the Broncos naming former Patriots' offensive coordinator (and recent high school graduate, or so I'm told) Josh McDaniels as their new head coach, the number of coaching vacancies has dropped to three, although there remains the possibility that the Chiefs will let Herm Edwards go. This became an even greater possibility, even a likelihood, with the Chiefs hiring of Scott Pioli as general manager. Pioli is another former Patriot, meaning that the Patriots are having an impact on almost half of the league in one way or another. Whether this is for the best remains to be seen.
Looking at the history of Bill Belichick alum, success has been hard to come by. The most recent Belichick coaches have been mediocre at best. The first to leave the nest, former offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, have found significant difficulty in their time as head men. Weis had a great start at Notre Dame four years ago making a BCS bowl in his first season (with star quarterback Brady Quinn leading the Irish), but Notre Dame lost that bowl game in a rout and has been in decline since, even going just 3-9 in 2007 before "bouncing back" to 7-6 last year. Although Weis signed a 10-year contract extension after that first successful season, Irish boosters were still willing to put together the $10 million+ that it would take to buy him out (read: fire him). This hasn't happened... yet.
For Crennel, the success didn't come until his third year as Cleveland Browns head coach. With quarterback issues plaguing the team in its first two years, the Browns rode a great season (resulting in a Pro Bowl) by QB Derek Anderson to a 10-6 record in 2007, yet the brutal AFC prevented the Browns from making the playoffs. This also happened to be a contract year for the third year pro Anderson, meaning the Browns were forced to commit significant money to a one-year wonder in case he carried that 2007 season into a quality career. Signs point to no on that, although Anderson suffered multiple injuries in 2008 and the Browns back-slid with a 6-10 record and Crennel is gone.
The third Belichick disciple to leave was Eric Mangini, who had replaced Crennel as Pats defensive coordinator in 2005. In 2006, Mangini took over the Patriots' division rival New York Jets when the aforementioned Herm Edwards was fired, and Mangini found immediate success making the playoffs in his first season. The following two years were tumultuous, however, as the Jets went 4-12 in 2007 due to quarterback Chad Pennington's season-long battle with shoulder injuries and followed that up with the Year of Favre in 2008. This season the Jets started out extremely well with much fanfare after the trade for the future Hall of Fame quarterback, but as the year dragged on and the weather grew colder and more unpredictable, so did Favre. The Jets offense lost its ability to move the ball consistently and the defense wasn't good enough to make up for it, leading the Jets to finish a disappointing 9-7 and fail to make the playoffs, costing Mangini his job.
Mangini bounced back quickly, landing the Browns job from Crennel, but the fact remains that Bill Belichick's coaching tree, while large in number, has yet to find significant success outside of Massachusetts. Does this mean McDaniels and Mangini will fail, or that Weis and the Irish will not rebound, or that Crennel should be out of football? Of course not. At least I hope not as a Broncos fan. It just means that not all great coaches produce other great coaches, and not all great assistants become quality head coaches (just ask Cam Cameron).
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, January 12, 2009
What to Make of This Weekend
I've been saying all along that this has been one of the strangest NFL seasons I can remember, so I suppose the results from this weekend's games should not come as a huge surprise. When the best teams in the league are a Giants team that seemed to be riding its momentum from their 2008 postseason run (until their star wide receiver shot himself in the leg...) and a Titans team that abandoned its opening day starting QB after less than one game for a 36-year-old journeyman, I guess you can probably say things didn't exactly go as expected.
From week 1, we knew this was going to be an odd year. Other than the Titans benching an injured Vince Young for the well-aged Kerry Collins (Young's injury was minor, but the benching turned out to be permanent), we saw the prohibitive favorite New England Patriots lose the reigning league MVP, Tom Brady, for the year week 1, thrusting a player (Matt Cassel) into the starting lineup that famously hadn't started a game since high school. We also saw a hurricane again derail a team's season (although a brutal opening schedule for the Texans was already a probably going to keep them from succeeding) and a superstar quarterback, Peyton Manning, struggle with injury, seemingly for the first time in his illustrious career.
As the season progressed, the good separated from the bad, but those on both ends came as huge surprises. The previously 1-15 Dolphins showed stunning signs of life, the Giants looked like a dominant force that was on a mission to repeat, the Titans were the final unbeaten team through 10 games, the Falcons were reborn with a new star QB (Matt Ryan) and a budding star RB (Michael Turner), and the entirety of teams in Western divisions looked like j.v. teams. On the other side, the much-hyped Jaguars never found any traction and eventually gave up on the season by week 10. The Detroit Lions finally rid themselves of GM Matt Millen, but celebrated by not winning a game all year. The also-hyped Browns suffered injuries and a major quarterback controversy before settling on Ken Dorsey to lead their failed season.
Why am I rehashing all of these old stories? Again, this is to give you the proper background for one of the most stunning postseason weekends in sports history.
On Saturday, the early game was one of two very popular upset picks: the Ravens over the Titans. I did not (and still don't, really) think the Ravens had the talent to compete with the Titans, and it showed on the field on Saturday. Unfortunately for Tennessee, talent alone does not win football games. The Ravens gameplan was very clear: control the ball, take very few chances and wait for the Titans to make mistakes. And they did. While the Ravens were very cautious offensively, picking their spots to take chances down the field, the Titans were aggressive and moved the ball very well. But the Ravens defense was its normal advantageous self, and each time the Titans made an error, the Ravens were there to pounce. I still feel the Titans are the better team, and it even showed, but luck was clearly on Baltimore's side (don't get me started on the blown delay of game call) and Baltimore took full advantage for the upset.
Little did we know, this was just the appetizer, and the best upset dish was to be served Saturday night. As I wrote on Friday, many Divisional round games have given us some great finishes, and often these games have come in the late-Saturday time slot. The Cardinals-Panthers game will not go down as a classic for one reason: only one team participated. Much of the criticism on Panthers coach John Fox in the aftermath of the stunning 33-13 blowout loss is on his defense's inability to adjust to the Cardinals offensive gameplan; that is, get the ball to Larry Freaking Fitzgerald. As if anyone thought the Cards would do otherwise. Yet L-Fitz was routinely single covered or running free in a zone while the Panthers secondary watched him go wherever he wanted.
Clearly, Carolina's inability to stop the Cards' greatest weapon doomed them, but let's not let the Panthers offensive gameplan off the hook. As much as we'd like to pile on poor Jake Delhomme for his career-worst performance, don't let the coaches get away easy. After the opening drive, the Panthers inexplicably abandoned the run and went into pass-wacky, air-it-out mode. Delhomme was constantly throwing deep (to Muhsin Muhammad, of all people) while the league's #3 ranked rush offense went under-utilized. Even knowing that they were behind by two scores fairly early, there's still no excuse for this. Not only did the Panthers abandon the run, but they also failed to use their RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the passing game. Nor did they find a way to get arguably their best playmaker, WR Steve Smith, the ball in space with a chance to beat defenders 1-on-1.
Now, while it's easy to pick on the Panthers, credit certainly must be given to the Cardinals as well. Kurt Warner is playing at an elite QB level, largely because his offensive line is keeping him upright. There is no doubt that this has been the key to Warner's success in his career: keep him clean, and he'll win you games. If he gets knocked around, very bad things happen. (NOTE TO PHILADELPHIA: Get pressure on Kurt Warner!) As for the Cardinals defense, whoever found the on-switch for that unit deserves a big raise. They are playing with as much intensity and confidence as you'll ever see a defense have. They really remind me of the Colts defense the year they won the Super Bowl; it's been that kind of miraculous transformation from the regular season to the playoffs, although there's no single ingredient that has changed for Arizona like there was with Indy (Bob Sanders was hurt until the playoffs).
Sunday's games were a little less surprising, maybe because we were all so stunned still from the night before. The early game was probably the most-predicted upset (of the five Fox pre-game talking-heads, all except Michael Strahan (duh) picked the Eagles to win, although most of their reasons were weak at best) of the weekend. Philadelphia, legend has it, reminds everyone of last year's Giants. Fine, but they're facing this year's Giants, aka the NFC's best team, so is this some Bizarro football game, or what? Well, turns out Eli Manning really, really, REALLY, misses Plaxico Burress after all. The Eagles won the game by minimizing the damage the Giants could do on the ground and making Eli beat them, which he simply couldn't with that receiving corps.
On a side topic, what is it with Peyton Manning and Eli Manning's fluttery passes? For two players that can throw deep just fine, and can muster "zip" on their passes from time-to-time, they both throw some of the ugliest ducks you'll ever see. Don't get me wrong, they're both tremendously accurate with those ducks, but when they face bad weather (see: Peyton in New England in January, Eli at home any time after December 1st), those flutter-balls miss way too often. Can anyone explain the logic behind this?
Anyway, the Eagles played a very solid game. McNabb showed ample arm strength and escapability to survive the tough playing conditions and Andy Reid wasn't put into a situation where he had to make any real difficult decisions. The Eagles were clearly very well prepared for the game, and they had a great game plan: move McNabb around to free up short passes and occasionally throw deep. The running game was not used much, but it wasn't needed much as the Giants simply couldn't get to McNabb with their pass rush, no matter how obvious the passing situation was. You give the Giants a healthy Justin Tuck and Plaxico Burress, not to mention Osi Umenyiora, and this could be a much different game.
Finally, the universe returned to normal for the Sunday afternoon game between the Steelers and Chargers. As incredible (read: lucky) as the Chargers postseason run had been, they were clearly a flawed team throughout the season and it was just a matter of time before a team was able to exploit those flaws in a playoff game. Even if the Steelers hadn't done it, I don't doubt the Ravens would have themselves. Here's the flaw: their defense is only mediocre without Shawne Merriman and they can't stop the run. The plan of attack, as the Steelers showed, was to run, run, run and then throw deep when the safeties inevitably came up to help stop the run. Game, set, match. The Steelers were able to completely neutralize San Diego's running game, really eliminating Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett from the game entirely until Sproles's late, meaningless TD (on a catch, no less).
In the end, it was a crazy weekend of football, with the home teams going just 1-3, and with the three losing home teams combining for just 34 points. So the next question is: Is a first round bye really beneficial for the teams that get them? But that's a topic for another day.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
From week 1, we knew this was going to be an odd year. Other than the Titans benching an injured Vince Young for the well-aged Kerry Collins (Young's injury was minor, but the benching turned out to be permanent), we saw the prohibitive favorite New England Patriots lose the reigning league MVP, Tom Brady, for the year week 1, thrusting a player (Matt Cassel) into the starting lineup that famously hadn't started a game since high school. We also saw a hurricane again derail a team's season (although a brutal opening schedule for the Texans was already a probably going to keep them from succeeding) and a superstar quarterback, Peyton Manning, struggle with injury, seemingly for the first time in his illustrious career.
As the season progressed, the good separated from the bad, but those on both ends came as huge surprises. The previously 1-15 Dolphins showed stunning signs of life, the Giants looked like a dominant force that was on a mission to repeat, the Titans were the final unbeaten team through 10 games, the Falcons were reborn with a new star QB (Matt Ryan) and a budding star RB (Michael Turner), and the entirety of teams in Western divisions looked like j.v. teams. On the other side, the much-hyped Jaguars never found any traction and eventually gave up on the season by week 10. The Detroit Lions finally rid themselves of GM Matt Millen, but celebrated by not winning a game all year. The also-hyped Browns suffered injuries and a major quarterback controversy before settling on Ken Dorsey to lead their failed season.
Why am I rehashing all of these old stories? Again, this is to give you the proper background for one of the most stunning postseason weekends in sports history.
On Saturday, the early game was one of two very popular upset picks: the Ravens over the Titans. I did not (and still don't, really) think the Ravens had the talent to compete with the Titans, and it showed on the field on Saturday. Unfortunately for Tennessee, talent alone does not win football games. The Ravens gameplan was very clear: control the ball, take very few chances and wait for the Titans to make mistakes. And they did. While the Ravens were very cautious offensively, picking their spots to take chances down the field, the Titans were aggressive and moved the ball very well. But the Ravens defense was its normal advantageous self, and each time the Titans made an error, the Ravens were there to pounce. I still feel the Titans are the better team, and it even showed, but luck was clearly on Baltimore's side (don't get me started on the blown delay of game call) and Baltimore took full advantage for the upset.
Little did we know, this was just the appetizer, and the best upset dish was to be served Saturday night. As I wrote on Friday, many Divisional round games have given us some great finishes, and often these games have come in the late-Saturday time slot. The Cardinals-Panthers game will not go down as a classic for one reason: only one team participated. Much of the criticism on Panthers coach John Fox in the aftermath of the stunning 33-13 blowout loss is on his defense's inability to adjust to the Cardinals offensive gameplan; that is, get the ball to Larry Freaking Fitzgerald. As if anyone thought the Cards would do otherwise. Yet L-Fitz was routinely single covered or running free in a zone while the Panthers secondary watched him go wherever he wanted.
Clearly, Carolina's inability to stop the Cards' greatest weapon doomed them, but let's not let the Panthers offensive gameplan off the hook. As much as we'd like to pile on poor Jake Delhomme for his career-worst performance, don't let the coaches get away easy. After the opening drive, the Panthers inexplicably abandoned the run and went into pass-wacky, air-it-out mode. Delhomme was constantly throwing deep (to Muhsin Muhammad, of all people) while the league's #3 ranked rush offense went under-utilized. Even knowing that they were behind by two scores fairly early, there's still no excuse for this. Not only did the Panthers abandon the run, but they also failed to use their RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the passing game. Nor did they find a way to get arguably their best playmaker, WR Steve Smith, the ball in space with a chance to beat defenders 1-on-1.
Now, while it's easy to pick on the Panthers, credit certainly must be given to the Cardinals as well. Kurt Warner is playing at an elite QB level, largely because his offensive line is keeping him upright. There is no doubt that this has been the key to Warner's success in his career: keep him clean, and he'll win you games. If he gets knocked around, very bad things happen. (NOTE TO PHILADELPHIA: Get pressure on Kurt Warner!) As for the Cardinals defense, whoever found the on-switch for that unit deserves a big raise. They are playing with as much intensity and confidence as you'll ever see a defense have. They really remind me of the Colts defense the year they won the Super Bowl; it's been that kind of miraculous transformation from the regular season to the playoffs, although there's no single ingredient that has changed for Arizona like there was with Indy (Bob Sanders was hurt until the playoffs).
Sunday's games were a little less surprising, maybe because we were all so stunned still from the night before. The early game was probably the most-predicted upset (of the five Fox pre-game talking-heads, all except Michael Strahan (duh) picked the Eagles to win, although most of their reasons were weak at best) of the weekend. Philadelphia, legend has it, reminds everyone of last year's Giants. Fine, but they're facing this year's Giants, aka the NFC's best team, so is this some Bizarro football game, or what? Well, turns out Eli Manning really, really, REALLY, misses Plaxico Burress after all. The Eagles won the game by minimizing the damage the Giants could do on the ground and making Eli beat them, which he simply couldn't with that receiving corps.
On a side topic, what is it with Peyton Manning and Eli Manning's fluttery passes? For two players that can throw deep just fine, and can muster "zip" on their passes from time-to-time, they both throw some of the ugliest ducks you'll ever see. Don't get me wrong, they're both tremendously accurate with those ducks, but when they face bad weather (see: Peyton in New England in January, Eli at home any time after December 1st), those flutter-balls miss way too often. Can anyone explain the logic behind this?
Anyway, the Eagles played a very solid game. McNabb showed ample arm strength and escapability to survive the tough playing conditions and Andy Reid wasn't put into a situation where he had to make any real difficult decisions. The Eagles were clearly very well prepared for the game, and they had a great game plan: move McNabb around to free up short passes and occasionally throw deep. The running game was not used much, but it wasn't needed much as the Giants simply couldn't get to McNabb with their pass rush, no matter how obvious the passing situation was. You give the Giants a healthy Justin Tuck and Plaxico Burress, not to mention Osi Umenyiora, and this could be a much different game.
Finally, the universe returned to normal for the Sunday afternoon game between the Steelers and Chargers. As incredible (read: lucky) as the Chargers postseason run had been, they were clearly a flawed team throughout the season and it was just a matter of time before a team was able to exploit those flaws in a playoff game. Even if the Steelers hadn't done it, I don't doubt the Ravens would have themselves. Here's the flaw: their defense is only mediocre without Shawne Merriman and they can't stop the run. The plan of attack, as the Steelers showed, was to run, run, run and then throw deep when the safeties inevitably came up to help stop the run. Game, set, match. The Steelers were able to completely neutralize San Diego's running game, really eliminating Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett from the game entirely until Sproles's late, meaningless TD (on a catch, no less).
In the end, it was a crazy weekend of football, with the home teams going just 1-3, and with the three losing home teams combining for just 34 points. So the next question is: Is a first round bye really beneficial for the teams that get them? But that's a topic for another day.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
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