Conference Championships - Time To Step Up

It's taken me a full four days to fully recover from the NFL massacre that we (and by we, I mean my picks) took last weekend. I'll admit, it wasn't my finest hour as I mustered just 1-3 straight up and a powerful 0-4 against the spread. My only solace is the fact that I am not alone in my time of failure as sports experts and gamblers everywhere are feeling the wrath of what may have been the most shocking Divisional playoff round of all time. Not only were the home teams, that is two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, just 1-3 on the weekend(#2 seeded Pittsburgh won), but one (Carolina) was blown out, one (New York) played so passively they never stood a chance and one (Tennessee) thoroughly outplayed their opponent and yet lost anyway.

Now going into the Conference Championship weekend, I'm at a loss for what to pick. The Wild Card weekend was crazy enough, with 4 road favorites in 4 games and 2 rookie QBs favored in their games. Last week seemed like it would bring normalcy back to the league as all four home teams were favored and one was even favored by double digits (Carolina). Alas, the football gods chose to torment us once again as none of the games played out as anticipated. Even the game I picked correctly, Pittsburgh to defeat San Diego, saw a combined 59 points scored, the most of the weekend, despite bitter cold and snow throughout.

So how am I supposed to have any confidence picking this weekend's games? Basically, I'm not, so I'm going to go with my gut and hope, which is about all anyone can do at this point. As usual, the odds are provided by Yahoo! Sports, and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only. If I'm not willing to put money on my own picks, I can assure you that you shouldn't either.

Game 1 - Sunday, January 18th, 2:00 CST
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: There are four possible outcomes of any given NFL game: blowout win by one team or the other, or close win by one team or the other. It's pretty much as simple as that. For most games, one or two of these outcomes can be eliminated and as a bettor you are choosing what you deem to be a fifty-fifty proposition between the remaining two outcomes. Some games are even so obvious as to have one clear outcome in your mind. For example, last year the New England Patriots opened as a 14 point favorite to defeat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. My gut reaction to this line the very first time I heard it was to take the Giants to cover and I was very confident in that decision. Why? Because I had decided that of the four possible outcomes for that game, the only one that would truly floor me was for the Giants to win in a rout. The other three (Giants or Pats win close, Pats win big) all seemed well within the realm of possibility. Of those three options, only one would result in the Pats covering (Pats win big), so the clear choice was on the Giants to cover. I'm not saying I picked the G-Men to win outright, because I didn't, but I did think they'd keep it close enough, and I was right.

Why am I telling you all of this? Simply because this game blows that line of thinking completely out of the water. Of the four potential outcomes to the Eagles-Cardinals game, NONE would floor me. So let's break this pick down a little further. First, the most surprising result would probably have to be the Cards in a rout. Are they capable of this? Absolutely, and the Eagles certainly could collapse if enough bad things happen early on. But the Cards pretty thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in their Wild Card win, yet only won by 6, so I'm going to say they won't blow out the Eagles (even though they just blew out the Panthers...).

The second possibility is that of a close game either way. So which team would I pick in this situation? That's a very tough question. I've ragged on Andy Reid many times in this blog for his questionable decision-making in crucial game situations, but can I really give the edge to a head coach in his first playoffs as the head hancho (Ken Whisenhunt) over a guy that's coached in four previous Conference Championships and a Super Bowl? I'm leaning no. And as much as I love and respect Kurt Warner, I would certainly give the Eagles the upper hand in the event of any late game drives with the game on the line, largely because of the Eagles' defense. I think Warner and McNabb really compare very well to each other in the postseason (despite McNabb's history of, uh, struggling late in tight games). Also, I'll take David Akers for a crucial field goal attempt over anyone not named Vinatieri any day of the week.

So what about the Eagles in a rout? This seems like a very possible scenario (the Eagles blew out the Cards when the teams met Thanksgiving night in Philly) and if either team looks like they have "Just Glad We Got This Far" potential, it's the Cardinals. If things start to go wrong for the Cards, that psyched-up home crowd could absolutely turn in a hurry, and the game could get out of hand quickly. I don't trust the Cardinals offensive line with a deficit when the run is disregarded by the defense. With all this said, the pick is now clear as mud.

The Pick: Eagles to win and cover, 33-24.

Game 2 - Sunday, January 18th, 5:30 CST
Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Take: Going back to my previously described theory, this game follows the traditional path for an NFL game. Can Pittsbugh win in a rout? Yes. Could this game be won by either team close? Yes. Can Baltimore win in a rout? NO. Could I be completely wrong about that? Sure, but I'm guessing I'm not. Yes, anytime you get a great defense involved in a game, the potential for a rout exists (teams like to make things worse when way behind and forced to become one-dimensional against great defenses). That said, if this game were in Baltimore or the Ravens had a veteran QB, a rout might happen. But in a bad weather game with a rookie QB on the road, I just don't see Baltimore running away with it. Especially given the way Baltimore performed offensively in relatively mild weather against Tennessee last weekend.

This brings me to a side note. Can we please, PLEASE, stop with the "He's Not a Rookie Anymore" bull about Joe Flacco or any other guy that's played more than 10 games? HE IS STILL A ROOKIE! I don't care how mature he seems, or how well he "runs the offense;" he's still prone to all the same mistakes of any rookie and the offensive coordinator and head coach are still going to treat him with kid gloves when it comes to gameplanning. Until you get two full offseasons (and you could argue that with year-round training regimens, most rookies don't even get one full offseason before they start their first season), you are still a rookie. Period. Thanks for hearing me out on that. Now back to our normally scheduled program.

So Baltimore won't win in a rout. Pittsburgh could, but I do tend to find this unlikely given the way these teams' previous meetings went (Pittsburgh won both by a combined 7 points). So why is the line where it's at? Because Vegas wants to get more money in on the Baltimore side, but gamblers keep finding ways to assure themselves that Pittsburgh is better and better than Baltimore. Thus, the line grows and grows. The other reasoning is that Baltimore may fall prey to exactly what I described above: fall behind early, become one-dimensional, make things worse against a great defense. As much as it pains me to say it, this seems very possible. I thought veteran playoff quarterback Philip Rivers would handle the Steelers pressure well last week and the game would remain close. It did not. The difference this week, other than the rookie QB, is that Baltimore's running game is not banged up like San Diego's was, and the Ravens seem like they will be more committed to the run precisely because of that rookie QB.

The Pick: The first part of this pick feels like a no-brainer here (I know I'm tempting the football gods by saying that...), and that is Pittsburgh to win. As for the spread, ugh, I'm going to reluctantly take Baltimore to cover. Final: 17-13.

Last week: 0-4 vs. Spread, 1-3 Straight Up
Playoffs: 1-7 vs. Spread, 2-6 Straight Up

Feel free to share your take with me and the other readers by commenting below.

If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.