I've been trying to keep quiet on this year's NBA playoffs as things have gone particularly well for my favorite NBA teams (the Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets, in that order), but with Denver on the verge of their first ever playoff sweep, I had to jump in. Thus, I will be writing this blog as I watch the game and you will get to join me in the emotion as the Nuggets try to close out the Mavericks.
1st Quarter
- Glad to see TNT has sent the C-team to do the play-by-play for this one. Matt Devlin, Steve Smith and some guy named Marty are our commentators. Clearly, the network feels pretty sure this won't be the featured game of the night. Then again, it's not like the Cavs-Hawks game was the height of drama; everyone and their dog knew what was going to happen in that one.
- Mavs strike first with some third chance points, and the Nugs follow it up with a turnover. Billups chucks one on next possession, but the game looks like it's playing at the Nuggets pace early.
- Melo and Dirk on the board quickly, no surprise there.
- A nice bonus as Dahntay Jones hits a "three" (looked like his foot was on the line to me) and the Nuggets get on an early run. Mavs need to be very careful. My prediction coming in was that this would be a big win for Denver. The way I see it, the Mavs will get down 8-10 points at some point in the game and will give up on the game. I give Jason Kidd credit for leading this team, but guys like Howard and Terry seem the type that might hang their head with a deficit.
- Nugs run up to 10-0 (12-6 lead)...
- Both teams having early turnover problems. Psychologically, this is much more dangerous for the Mavs.
- Dahntay Jones with the steal/slam! Wow, not the kind of thing you want to see if you're the Mavs/their fans. If Denver gets confident early, they can steamroll you. As I've heard multiple times this postseason, the Nuggets are tremendous frontrunners as they really step on the gas with a lead.
- First commercial break and the Nugs hold a nice 14-8 lead. Looking good so far.
- Let me just say this about the non-foul in game 3: I completely agree that a foul probably should have been called, but for anyone to say that this cost the Mavs the game is simply preposterous. Even if they get the foul call, the Nuggets still have the ball with 2.5 seconds left, plenty of time to get a good look or even draw a foul. So don't tell me that the Mavs lost because of the non-call. By the way, if Wright wanted the foul call, he shouldn't have put his arms up will committing it in the universal "I'm not fouling" motion! Okay, I'll get off my soapbox now.
- What's up with this "team role" thing TNT has been using this postseason? How many casual fans watching will know what they mean when they say Chauncey Billups is the Nuggets' "Commander-In-Chief" if they didn't already know what he does? Honestly, does this help anyone?
- Dirk is coming out aggressive and looking for his shot, a good sign for the Mavs. The problem is, Dirk's been amazing all series long and he's gotten no help. It's a shame that Josh Howard has been hurt this series and really prevented the Mavs from competing.
- Chauncey Billups is absolutely amazing. I rooted for him with Detroit when the faced the Lakers back in 2004, but as the Pistons kept dominating the East, I started to get tired of him. Now that he's a Nugget, I can't get enough of this guy. He has been exactly what the Nuggets needed. He's practically a second head coach, and when the players get sick of listening to George Karl, Chauncey can help keep things together. His scoring this postseason has been a breath of fresh air, taking a lot of the pressure off of Carmelo to score tons.
- Question: Anyone else think Carmelo is trying to prove something and win a title before his buddy LeBron?
- JR Smith is 1-for-1 from three. Uh-oh.
- Mavs with a missed three, Nugs get the fast break and the fans are already out of the game. Timeout Mavs as Kleiza nails the three and the Nugs are already up by 13. Maybe they won't win by 58, but I sense this game turning out very similar to the Nuggets' game 4 rout in New Orleans in the first round. Oh, did I mention it's still the first quarter?
- 34-23 Denver, end of 1. Pressure is squarely on the Mavericks.
2nd Quarter
- First play of the quarter, JR nails his second three. I don't care who you are, if Smith gets hot, the Nuggets are very, very tough to beat.
- No, Melo! NOOOO! Carmelo takes a swing at Antoine Wright, trying to get his arm untangled from Wright after a rebound. The last thing the Nuggets need is for Melo to get tossed or, much much worse, suspended for a game (especially a game in the next round). Hopefully the league will agree that it was fairly harmless. Steve Javy, one of the better officials I've seen this postseason, reviews the play and... Technical foul on Melo, but he stays in the game. Now it's in the league's hands.
- Quick whistle on the next play as Melo drive to the hoop. I agree with color man Smith that it was a smart play by Melo to attack the hoop and make the officials make a call.
- Dallas gets energized by a play by JJ Berea, and the Nuggets need to sense this and try to calm down a little, not let the Mavs get on a run.
- Nice pull-up by Melo, but Berea strikes again and the Nuggets still up 12. Meanwhile, Nene is playing very well and making the Mavs big men work hard on defense. Unfortunately, he misses two free throws and wastes his hard work.
- The refs are calling everything right now, and both teams are attack the rim to try to get calls. We'll see if we get another foul-fest like game 3. This would seem to favor the home team as the refs tend to call more fouls on the visitors, plus the Nuggets aren't nearly as deep in the frontcourt as they are in the backcourt, particularly with Chris Andersen m.i.a.
- Mavs crawl back within 9, 40-31, as we head to the under 9:00 break.
- Nuggets are playing a little sloppily this quarter, and with the Mavs within 7, things are getting tighter. Then again... next thing I know, Anthony "I'm not a three point shooter but I chuck 'em up anyway" Carter drains a 3, Kidd air balls one on the other end, and the Mavs momentum is fading again.
- The Mavs can't buy a 3, and as I said before, the pace of this game continues to favor Denver. Suddenly, that little Mavs run has turned around and Carlisle has to burn a timeout down 49-35.
- Brandon Bass has been huge for Dallas so far. He is playing with much more energy and intensity than the rest of his team. Meanwhile, the Nuggets are getting sloppy on offense again. 6-0 run out of the timeout for Dallas.
- Ridiculous foul called on Billups as Howard creates contact, gets the call and the bucket for a big three-point play.
- Four quick, BIG points from Melo and he gets Denver back up by 10. Teams are trading baskets right now. Nene continues to do his work down low, getting to the line yet again for free throws 9 and 10.
- Big final 3 minutes here as the Mavs need to stay in single digits going to the half.
- Nuggets get another technical as Billups whines to the refs. I agree the Nuggets haven't gotten (m)any calls in Dallas these two games, but you need to be careful not to give the Mavs free points by complaining.
- Flagrant foul on Howard. Hmmm, maybe Chauncey made an impact after all? Forget what I just said, Nuggets, whine away!
- Each team misses some golden opportunities and the game is still rather sloppy for both teams. Nugget's lead is down to 5... Big slap by Dirk on Kleiza, but Linas misses both, wasting the call. Mavs turn around and give it back with a turnover, though. Nuggets holding for the last shot.
- Another aggressive drive by Kleiza and he returns to the line with 3.8 to play, and Terry is actually called for a flagrant on a play that Smith claims he didn't even see the foul. Really, Steve? Terry basically threw himself into Kleiza, not exactly going for the ball. Nuggets make 2 of 3 free throws (Terry also got a tech) and get the ball again for the last shot.
- Amazing put-back by Carmelo as time expires and the Nuggets manage a little run to take a 10 point lead to the half.
- 63-53 Nuggets at the break. Mavs are still fighting, for now.
Halftime
3rd Quarter
- The Mavs had 9 turnovers and 20 points allowed off those. 20! That's more than 2 per turnover! That's almost impossible. To say that's the difference in the game is an understatement.
- 15 seconds in and we have our first foul. Yay.
- Foul #2 14 seconds later. This is going to be a long half.
- Another quick start for Dirk. The Nuggets really can't guard him much better, but he's just making some incredible shots.
- Jones has been much more active offensively tonight than I recall him being this postseason. He's contributing well.
- 3 by Terry, deuce by Dirk and the Mavs cut the deficit to 1. Nuggets need a timeout as they have been discombobulated on offense and the Mavs are clicking on offense themselves.
- Nuggets get 6 quick points from Melo and pull back up by 5 until Terry knocks down a pair of free throws. The Nuggets are just refusing to let the Mavs take a lead, but credit the Mavs for not going away.
- Melo adds another pair, but then he gets beat on defense by a guy with two bad ankles and Howard gets the Mavs back within 1.
- As has been the case throughout this series and the playoffs in general, the refs are making their presence felt with many close calls. So far, it doesn't seem to be favoring either team, which I suppose is all we can ask for.
- With 5:13 to go in the third, the Mavs have been called for 20 fouls and the Nuggets 15. As you might imagine, Denver leads by 7, 80-73.
- Dallas has gone cold and the Nuggets are rebuilding their lead. Dallas needs to get Terry back on the floor as the deficit grows back to 9.
- Kleiza cannot guard Dirk, and he compounds his mistake with a technical foul giving the Mavs a four-point play as Dirk hits a shot and both freebies.
- Big bucket by JR to stem a little Dallas run and Smith has a chance at the three point play (only to miss another free throw). JR has got work work on his free throw shooting.
- Again, the game is within 1 and the last 2:00 of the quarter loom large. Once again, the Mavs cannot get out of their own way with Dirk turning the ball over with a chance to take the lead.
- Bad jumper by Carter, followed by a bad 3 by Kidd. Neither team wants to score it seems. Under 1:00 to go, Melo heads to the line and gives Denver a 2 point lead (29 on the game already for Melo).
- JJ Berea strikes yet again, tying it up at 85. Nuggets get a pair of freebies from Smith to retake the lead and, after a missed trey by Howard, Melo makes a circus shot plus one to put Denver back up 5. Quick action to end the period; now it's Berea to the line. He misses both.
- 90-85, Denver. Twelve minutes to the WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS for the Nugs. Wow, didn't think I'd be writing that this year.
4th Quarter
- Denver: Win the quarter, win the game. Simple.
- Holy moly. Erick Dampier gets whistled for a technical 28 seconds into the quarter, and already Dallas has a foul and a turnover in the period. Rather inauspicious start, I would say. Nuggets up 3-0.
- Nice hometown call as Dirk flops when Melo strips him, and Dirk gets a questionable foul call, leading to another Berea score. 3-2.
- And we have foul #3 of the quarter, just 1:29 in. Insanity. Dampier is done with 10:31 to go.
- Foul #4! Wright does a good job of drawing a foul and will head to the line. Nails them both, 3-4.
- Beautiful runner by Kleiza. 5-4.
- Foul #5, third on Denver (4th on Melo) with 9:33 to play. Dirk nails 2, 5-6.
- Kleiza 3 rims out, then Terry does the same. Every possession counts.
- Denver turnover then Dirk swishes a 2, 2 point game. 5-8.
- Smith goes to the bank! 7-8.
- Bass misses from point blank, Bass then fouls out of frustration and picks up a T. Big blow-up from Bass, and this could be very costly for the Mavs. 97-93 as we go to the under 9:00 break at 7:59.
- Melo drains the T, 8-8.
- Bucket for Wright, 8-10.
- Melo drains another huge J. 10-10. Melo with a career playoff high of 36.
- Dirk wastes no time, throwing in a circus shot with an and-1, cutting the deficit to 2. 10-13. Dirk has 32.
- JR with another cold-blooded deuce. 12-13.
- Wright back to the bucket, 12-15. Non-stop action and the crowd is really getting into this one.
- Wright with a foul on the other end, and suddenly we have ANOTHER technical foul. Unbelievable. The call on Wright certainly looked a bit questionable, but if anything the foul might have been that he flopped. Regardless, the Mavs' mental errors are keeping them from closing the gap indefinitely.
- Seven. Seven! Seven technicals in this game. Incredible. Billups hits the T, 13-15.
- On the technical possession, Smith hits another ridiculous jumper. 15-15 (105-100).
- 5:39 to go and Dirk is back at the line, swishing 2. 15-17.
- Late call on Nene for a push off after a bad jumper by Melo. Dirk back to the line as Denver has long since been in the bonus. 15-19.
- Nuggets up just 1, huge possession and Mr. Big Shot drives for 2. 17-19.
- Nice little jumper from Howard, 17-21. Billups quickly answers with a 3, 20-21.
- Fast and furious, Kidd to the line makes 2, 20-23.
- Melo with another great steal off Dirk, but the Nugs can't cash in.
- Howard air ball on a three and the Nuggets have the ball, still up 2. 110-108 with just over 3 to play.
- Dirk ties it with 2:43 to go. 110-110. 20-25 in the quarter. The series comes down to just under 3 minutes. I am mentally exhausted and extremely anxious. I do NOT want a game 5.
- Here we go. Melo is rejected by Bass, then Howard misses a J. Still tied.
- Billups to the rack, misses but Nene cleans it up, Nugs back on top. 22-25.
- Dirk goes to the rack and draws yet another foul. Not surprisingly, the German makes them both. 22-27.
- Melo misses a close shot, and the Mavs get it back with a chance to take the lead.
- Unreal jumper by Dirk, Mavs take the lead, 22-29.
- Under 1:00 to play. Dirk again. Dirk finally misses one, and Melo is ridiculously called for a loose-ball foul on the rebound, Howard to the line. He of course drills them both. Mavs up 4. 22-31. The Nuggets have not played well this quarter and it's looking like they'll pay for it by having to play another game. 31.4 seconds to play.
- Awful foul by Josh Howard, and Melo heads to the line. 2 huge free throws here. First is good. Second... swish. Nugs within 2. This is looking eerily like game 3...
- Timeout. Denver must guard Dirk on this next possession. If someone else beats you, so be it.
- Great D by Martin, and a HORRIBLE touch foul is called on him. Dirk goes to the line yet again. Very weak call. Argh. He makes them both (obviously). 118-114.
- Just reviewed the replay, and it is confirmed: awful call on that last play. Should cost Denver the game. There you go, Mavs fans. No more bitching.
- Amazing 3 by Melo, and Denver is back within 1. This has been an incredible dual between Melo and Dirk, both making insane shot after insane shot. Great game. 3.1 to play.
- Terry to the line. 1.1 to go. He drains the first. Mavs up 2. Terry intentionally misses the second, and Melo can't even get a shot off before the buzzer. The Mavs improbably force a game 5 that they really had no business winning. Damn shame, but a damn good showing by Dallas. The refs made a big impact, but I'd be reluctant to say that they were the difference in this one. Certainly some calls went against Denver, but some also went against the Mavs, so it is what it is. Denver had better win game 5, because Dallas won't give up and the last thing the Nuggets can afford is for this to go 7.
Hope you enjoyed, because this was nerve-wracking and frankly, extremely disappointing. No live blog for game 5, because clrealy it was bad luck for Denver.
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Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label playoffs. Show all posts
Monday, May 11, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
What if the BCS Ruled the NFL?
With the Super Bowl matchup finally decided, I got to thinking: what if the NFL used the same postseason system employed by major college football? What if the Super Bowl participants were determined by a vote with little (if any) real meaning placed on team performance? What if everyone else was vying for a "major" postseason game with a premium time slot set some time between the end of the season and the Super Bowl (assuming that they leave the Super Bowl in early February, which we know the BCS would)?
What I've compiled below is a list of the top 10 NFL teams based on a simple average of four major power polls (NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ESPN.com, and CBS Sportsline) and point differential (by rank). I would have included more polls for a better look at the poll distribution, but unfortunately many pollsters do not bother to release a poll after the season's final week. I've chosen the number 10 because that is the number of college football teams that earn bids to the BCS bowls, meaning they've qualified for the "major" bowls.
The table given here is broken down by division, starting with the AFC East, North, South and West then the NFC East, North, South and West. Here's a breakdown of the results (site is based on the team with better locale or domed stadium):
BCS Bowl #1: #10 Miami Dolphins vs. #9 Philadelphia Eagles
Site: Miami, FL
Note: Although there would be intrigue in the Dolphins rematching the Patriots (they split the season series and the Patriots come in at #8 on the list), the selection committee would likely look to avoid such a matchup.
BCS Bowl #2: #8 New England Patriots vs. #7 Atlanta Falcons
Site: Atlanta, GA
Note: Matty Ice vs. Matt Cassel!
BCS Bowl #3: #6 Baltimore Ravens vs. #4 Carolina Panthers
Site: Charlotte, NC
Note: Continuing the AFC vs. NFC trend, this match pits two of the top rushing attacks in football.
BCS Bowl #4: #5 Indianapolis Colts vs. #3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Site: Indianapolis, IN
Note: Rematch of the Steelers stunning AFC Championship game upset of the #1 seeded Colts in the 2006 playoffs, the year the Steelers won the Super Bowl.
BCS Super Bowl: #2 New York Giants vs. #1 Tennessee Titans
Site: Tampa, FL (site of Super Bowl XLIII)
Note: The two best teams throughout the season, both finished no worse than #3 in any poll or the point differential ranking. Most would say the BCS got it right!
Biggest Whiner(s): The Vikings finish #11 and just .4 behind the #10 Dolphins. San Diego is left out as well at #12, just 1.0 behind the Miami. The two would likely meet in San Diego for an exhibition bowl. All teams with an 8-8 record or better face off in a "postseason" game.
Best Argument for Split Title: If the Steelers defeated the Colts, and especially if the Giants defeat the Titans, Pittsburgh could make an argument. Carolina could potentially as well, but their loss to the Giants in the regular season kills their argument.
No Respect: The Arizona Cardinals (you know, the team that actually MADE THE SUPER BOWL) finished #14 in the rankings and in one poll (FOX) actually finished behind the 7-9 49ers. Only CBS had the Cardinals among the league's top 12 (good for them).
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
What I've compiled below is a list of the top 10 NFL teams based on a simple average of four major power polls (NBC Sports, FOX Sports, ESPN.com, and CBS Sportsline) and point differential (by rank). I would have included more polls for a better look at the poll distribution, but unfortunately many pollsters do not bother to release a poll after the season's final week. I've chosen the number 10 because that is the number of college football teams that earn bids to the BCS bowls, meaning they've qualified for the "major" bowls.
| Pt. Dif. | Pts. Rank | NBC Rank | FOX Rank | ESPN Rank | CBS Rank | Rank Ave. | Rank | ||
| Miami | 28 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10.4 | 10 | |
| New England | 101 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 8.4 | 8 | |
| NY Jets | 49 | 12 | 21 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16.2 | ||
| Buffalo | -6 | 20 | 23 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 22.6 | ||
| Pittsburgh | 124 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | 3 | |
| Baltimore | 141 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 5.4 | 6 | |
| Cincinnati | -160 | 30 | 28 | 27 | 27 | 24 | 27.2 | ||
| Cleveland | -118 | 27 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29.2 | ||
| Tennessee | 141 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.4 | 1 | |
| Indianapolis | 79 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | |
| Houston | -28 | 21 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17.4 | ||
| Jacksonville | -65 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 25.0 | ||
| San Diego | 92 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 11.4 | ||
| Denver | -78 | 25 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 20 | 21.2 | ||
| Oakland | -125 | 28 | 24 | 28 | 26 | 27 | 26.6 | ||
| Kansas City | -149 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 29 | 29.6 | ||
| NY Giants | 133 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | |
| Philadelphia | 127 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8.6 | 9 | |
| Dallas | -3 | 19 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 16.2 | ||
| Washington | -31 | 22 | 25 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 21.8 | ||
| Minnesota | 46 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10.8 | ||
| Chicago | 25 | 17 | 22 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 17.2 | ||
| Green Bay | 39 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 23 | 21.0 | ||
| Detroit | -249 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 32.0 | ||
| Carolina | 85 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4.6 | 4 | |
| Atlanta | 66 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7.6 | 7 | |
| Tampa Bay | 38 | 15 | 13 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 15.8 | ||
| New Orleans | 70 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 19 | 15.6 | ||
| Arizona | 1 | 17 | 15 | 22 | 13 | 11 | 15.6 | ||
| San Francisco | -42 | 22 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 21 | 20.0 | ||
| Seattle | -98 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 26.6 | ||
| St. Louis | -233 | 31 | 29 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 30.6 |
The table given here is broken down by division, starting with the AFC East, North, South and West then the NFC East, North, South and West. Here's a breakdown of the results (site is based on the team with better locale or domed stadium):
BCS Bowl #1: #10 Miami Dolphins vs. #9 Philadelphia Eagles
Site: Miami, FL
Note: Although there would be intrigue in the Dolphins rematching the Patriots (they split the season series and the Patriots come in at #8 on the list), the selection committee would likely look to avoid such a matchup.
BCS Bowl #2: #8 New England Patriots vs. #7 Atlanta Falcons
Site: Atlanta, GA
Note: Matty Ice vs. Matt Cassel!
BCS Bowl #3: #6 Baltimore Ravens vs. #4 Carolina Panthers
Site: Charlotte, NC
Note: Continuing the AFC vs. NFC trend, this match pits two of the top rushing attacks in football.
BCS Bowl #4: #5 Indianapolis Colts vs. #3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Site: Indianapolis, IN
Note: Rematch of the Steelers stunning AFC Championship game upset of the #1 seeded Colts in the 2006 playoffs, the year the Steelers won the Super Bowl.
BCS Super Bowl: #2 New York Giants vs. #1 Tennessee Titans
Site: Tampa, FL (site of Super Bowl XLIII)
Note: The two best teams throughout the season, both finished no worse than #3 in any poll or the point differential ranking. Most would say the BCS got it right!
Biggest Whiner(s): The Vikings finish #11 and just .4 behind the #10 Dolphins. San Diego is left out as well at #12, just 1.0 behind the Miami. The two would likely meet in San Diego for an exhibition bowl. All teams with an 8-8 record or better face off in a "postseason" game.
Best Argument for Split Title: If the Steelers defeated the Colts, and especially if the Giants defeat the Titans, Pittsburgh could make an argument. Carolina could potentially as well, but their loss to the Giants in the regular season kills their argument.
No Respect: The Arizona Cardinals (you know, the team that actually MADE THE SUPER BOWL) finished #14 in the rankings and in one poll (FOX) actually finished behind the 7-9 49ers. Only CBS had the Cardinals among the league's top 12 (good for them).
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, January 19, 2009
Homefield Advantage Returns... Finally
Just when we thought home-field advantage in the NFL was extinct, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals proved that there is still value in playing at home. The two teams each finished 2-0 at home in the playoffs and because of this will be meeting in Tampa in two weeks for the Super Bowl. After last week's home-field massacre, it's great to see some normalcy returning to the playoffs.
Yesterday will definitely go down as the best day of football in this postseason as both games offered equal parts drama and intrigue as the stakes were high and the play on the field was equal to the task. Let's break the games down one at a time.
NFC Championship Game
In the early game, the Cardinals raced out to yet another nice first half lead, 24-6 at the break (they led the Falcons 14-3 in the second quarter in round 1 and led the Panthers 27-7 at the half in round 2), before the Eagles defense kicked up the pressure in the second half. It seemed as though the Eagles had made the same mistake that the Panthers made the week prior, letting Larry Fitzgerald go unchecked and run either 1-on-1 or through a zone, and he responded with a three-TD first half. After the intermission, however, it looked as though Philadelphia really poured on the pressure on Kurt Warner, hitting him regularly and forcing hurried, inaccurate throws. This second half philosophy change clearly worked as the Eagles dominated time of possession in the third quarter and erased the big halftime deficit to take their first lead, 25-24, early in the fourth quarter.
Then the future Hall Of Famer stepped up (that's right, I said it). Kurt Warner (he of two NFL MVP awards and now three Super Bowl trips with two teams and at least one victory) led the Cards on a phenomenal 14-play, almost eight-minute drive to score the go-ahead touchdown and leave Donovan McNabb with just 2:53 to try to respond. Going into this game, I had said that if it came down to a final drive to win the game, I had more confidence in McNabb to accomplish the feat. Well, what I hadn't envisioned was the previously mentioned Arizona drive, which not only stopped the Eagles frantic comeback to give the home team the lead again, but also got the home crowd fired up after it had fallen into stunned silence when Philly took the lead. With the crowd roaring and the Cardinals defense fresh thanks to the long breather, McNabb (whose accuracy was off all day) struggled to get back into rhythm and the Eagles failed to move the ball with the game on the line, ending with a failed fourth down around midfield.
Am I surprised by the outcome of this one? After what I wrote last week, clearly I am not. This was certainly a plausible outcome for the game and it played out one of the best possible ways for both the viewer and the Cardinals. I have a hard time believing the Cards could have rallied from a big deficit the way the Eagles did, but it's obvious that they could survive the comeback attempt and come out victorious. It appears that the "Nobody Believes In Us!" sentiment outweighs the "Even If We Lose, We Had A Great Year" mentality, something that I wasn't quite able to account for accurately in my picks last week.
AFC Championship Game
The late game was exactly what I expected it to be. In cold, snowy weather, the defenses held a huge advantage, and when you put a veteran quarterback against a rookie quarterback in this situation, the result is the game we got. Baltimore's Joe Flacco, with the Ravens rushing attack struggling throughout, was barely, barely better than terrible yesterday, not really providing any real benefit to the Ravens offense and clearly hurting them in numerous instances, including the game-clinching TAINT in the fourth quarter. Ben Roethlisberger, however, had to deal with a very similarly poor running attack, yet provided numerous big plays with his arm and legs (his performance would have been even better if not for a couple of dropped passes and one that was questionably overturned(I'll discuss the overturned catch in a later post)) setting up the Steelers to score early and put the Ravens' backs against the wall.
Baltimore's offense never functioned well. The only reason they scored 14 points in the game was because of a long punt return by Jim Leonhard and an all-time atrocious punt by Mitch Berger, both giving the Ravens a short field. In a postseason where special teams have played such a critical role (particularly in the AFC), it's no surprise that special teams made a difference in this one. It turns out that difference was just to make the game artificially closer than it should have been. As well as the Ravens defense played, it's offense was equally poor for most of the contest.
Now to what I'm sure many of you are thinking (something I agree with, in fact): this game would have been a heck of a lot closer had the Ravens been healthy. There's no question this is true. The Ravens were beyond banged up and it showed from the start. Running back Le'Ron McClain was never able to make much of a contribution after being a big factor in the regular season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, all dinged up, were not themselves in the passing game and certainly added to Flacco's struggles. The Ravens secondary, particularly the corners, were a disaster; when Raiders castoff Fabian Washington is your number one corner in the AFC Championship game, you know you have issues. That's not to say the Steelers didn't have any injuries coming in, but they were definitely healthier. This will happen, though, when your team doesn't get a week off after week 2 (remember the Ravens regularly scheduled bye week was moved to week 2 when they were scheduled to play the Houston Texans but Hurricane Ike hit). Even completely healthy, though, I think the Steelers win this game.
In the end, the better team won in Pittsburgh, and the Ravens know that they will be very good for years to come if Flacco can continue to develop as a passer. Oh, and no one's saying today that he's not a rookie, are they?
I will break down the Super Bowl matchup later on this week.
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Yesterday will definitely go down as the best day of football in this postseason as both games offered equal parts drama and intrigue as the stakes were high and the play on the field was equal to the task. Let's break the games down one at a time.
NFC Championship Game
In the early game, the Cardinals raced out to yet another nice first half lead, 24-6 at the break (they led the Falcons 14-3 in the second quarter in round 1 and led the Panthers 27-7 at the half in round 2), before the Eagles defense kicked up the pressure in the second half. It seemed as though the Eagles had made the same mistake that the Panthers made the week prior, letting Larry Fitzgerald go unchecked and run either 1-on-1 or through a zone, and he responded with a three-TD first half. After the intermission, however, it looked as though Philadelphia really poured on the pressure on Kurt Warner, hitting him regularly and forcing hurried, inaccurate throws. This second half philosophy change clearly worked as the Eagles dominated time of possession in the third quarter and erased the big halftime deficit to take their first lead, 25-24, early in the fourth quarter.
Then the future Hall Of Famer stepped up (that's right, I said it). Kurt Warner (he of two NFL MVP awards and now three Super Bowl trips with two teams and at least one victory) led the Cards on a phenomenal 14-play, almost eight-minute drive to score the go-ahead touchdown and leave Donovan McNabb with just 2:53 to try to respond. Going into this game, I had said that if it came down to a final drive to win the game, I had more confidence in McNabb to accomplish the feat. Well, what I hadn't envisioned was the previously mentioned Arizona drive, which not only stopped the Eagles frantic comeback to give the home team the lead again, but also got the home crowd fired up after it had fallen into stunned silence when Philly took the lead. With the crowd roaring and the Cardinals defense fresh thanks to the long breather, McNabb (whose accuracy was off all day) struggled to get back into rhythm and the Eagles failed to move the ball with the game on the line, ending with a failed fourth down around midfield.
Am I surprised by the outcome of this one? After what I wrote last week, clearly I am not. This was certainly a plausible outcome for the game and it played out one of the best possible ways for both the viewer and the Cardinals. I have a hard time believing the Cards could have rallied from a big deficit the way the Eagles did, but it's obvious that they could survive the comeback attempt and come out victorious. It appears that the "Nobody Believes In Us!" sentiment outweighs the "Even If We Lose, We Had A Great Year" mentality, something that I wasn't quite able to account for accurately in my picks last week.
AFC Championship Game
The late game was exactly what I expected it to be. In cold, snowy weather, the defenses held a huge advantage, and when you put a veteran quarterback against a rookie quarterback in this situation, the result is the game we got. Baltimore's Joe Flacco, with the Ravens rushing attack struggling throughout, was barely, barely better than terrible yesterday, not really providing any real benefit to the Ravens offense and clearly hurting them in numerous instances, including the game-clinching TAINT in the fourth quarter. Ben Roethlisberger, however, had to deal with a very similarly poor running attack, yet provided numerous big plays with his arm and legs (his performance would have been even better if not for a couple of dropped passes and one that was questionably overturned(I'll discuss the overturned catch in a later post)) setting up the Steelers to score early and put the Ravens' backs against the wall.
Baltimore's offense never functioned well. The only reason they scored 14 points in the game was because of a long punt return by Jim Leonhard and an all-time atrocious punt by Mitch Berger, both giving the Ravens a short field. In a postseason where special teams have played such a critical role (particularly in the AFC), it's no surprise that special teams made a difference in this one. It turns out that difference was just to make the game artificially closer than it should have been. As well as the Ravens defense played, it's offense was equally poor for most of the contest.
Now to what I'm sure many of you are thinking (something I agree with, in fact): this game would have been a heck of a lot closer had the Ravens been healthy. There's no question this is true. The Ravens were beyond banged up and it showed from the start. Running back Le'Ron McClain was never able to make much of a contribution after being a big factor in the regular season. Todd Heap, Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton, all dinged up, were not themselves in the passing game and certainly added to Flacco's struggles. The Ravens secondary, particularly the corners, were a disaster; when Raiders castoff Fabian Washington is your number one corner in the AFC Championship game, you know you have issues. That's not to say the Steelers didn't have any injuries coming in, but they were definitely healthier. This will happen, though, when your team doesn't get a week off after week 2 (remember the Ravens regularly scheduled bye week was moved to week 2 when they were scheduled to play the Houston Texans but Hurricane Ike hit). Even completely healthy, though, I think the Steelers win this game.
In the end, the better team won in Pittsburgh, and the Ravens know that they will be very good for years to come if Flacco can continue to develop as a passer. Oh, and no one's saying today that he's not a rookie, are they?
I will break down the Super Bowl matchup later on this week.
To get updates and notices each time there's a post, subscribe above. If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Conference Championships - Time To Step Up
It's taken me a full four days to fully recover from the NFL massacre that we (and by we, I mean my picks) took last weekend. I'll admit, it wasn't my finest hour as I mustered just 1-3 straight up and a powerful 0-4 against the spread. My only solace is the fact that I am not alone in my time of failure as sports experts and gamblers everywhere are feeling the wrath of what may have been the most shocking Divisional playoff round of all time. Not only were the home teams, that is two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds, just 1-3 on the weekend(#2 seeded Pittsburgh won), but one (Carolina) was blown out, one (New York) played so passively they never stood a chance and one (Tennessee) thoroughly outplayed their opponent and yet lost anyway.
Now going into the Conference Championship weekend, I'm at a loss for what to pick. The Wild Card weekend was crazy enough, with 4 road favorites in 4 games and 2 rookie QBs favored in their games. Last week seemed like it would bring normalcy back to the league as all four home teams were favored and one was even favored by double digits (Carolina). Alas, the football gods chose to torment us once again as none of the games played out as anticipated. Even the game I picked correctly, Pittsburgh to defeat San Diego, saw a combined 59 points scored, the most of the weekend, despite bitter cold and snow throughout.
So how am I supposed to have any confidence picking this weekend's games? Basically, I'm not, so I'm going to go with my gut and hope, which is about all anyone can do at this point. As usual, the odds are provided by Yahoo! Sports, and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only. If I'm not willing to put money on my own picks, I can assure you that you shouldn't either.
Game 1 - Sunday, January 18th, 2:00 CST
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: There are four possible outcomes of any given NFL game: blowout win by one team or the other, or close win by one team or the other. It's pretty much as simple as that. For most games, one or two of these outcomes can be eliminated and as a bettor you are choosing what you deem to be a fifty-fifty proposition between the remaining two outcomes. Some games are even so obvious as to have one clear outcome in your mind. For example, last year the New England Patriots opened as a 14 point favorite to defeat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. My gut reaction to this line the very first time I heard it was to take the Giants to cover and I was very confident in that decision. Why? Because I had decided that of the four possible outcomes for that game, the only one that would truly floor me was for the Giants to win in a rout. The other three (Giants or Pats win close, Pats win big) all seemed well within the realm of possibility. Of those three options, only one would result in the Pats covering (Pats win big), so the clear choice was on the Giants to cover. I'm not saying I picked the G-Men to win outright, because I didn't, but I did think they'd keep it close enough, and I was right.
Why am I telling you all of this? Simply because this game blows that line of thinking completely out of the water. Of the four potential outcomes to the Eagles-Cardinals game, NONE would floor me. So let's break this pick down a little further. First, the most surprising result would probably have to be the Cards in a rout. Are they capable of this? Absolutely, and the Eagles certainly could collapse if enough bad things happen early on. But the Cards pretty thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in their Wild Card win, yet only won by 6, so I'm going to say they won't blow out the Eagles (even though they just blew out the Panthers...).
The second possibility is that of a close game either way. So which team would I pick in this situation? That's a very tough question. I've ragged on Andy Reid many times in this blog for his questionable decision-making in crucial game situations, but can I really give the edge to a head coach in his first playoffs as the head hancho (Ken Whisenhunt) over a guy that's coached in four previous Conference Championships and a Super Bowl? I'm leaning no. And as much as I love and respect Kurt Warner, I would certainly give the Eagles the upper hand in the event of any late game drives with the game on the line, largely because of the Eagles' defense. I think Warner and McNabb really compare very well to each other in the postseason (despite McNabb's history of, uh, struggling late in tight games). Also, I'll take David Akers for a crucial field goal attempt over anyone not named Vinatieri any day of the week.
So what about the Eagles in a rout? This seems like a very possible scenario (the Eagles blew out the Cards when the teams met Thanksgiving night in Philly) and if either team looks like they have "Just Glad We Got This Far" potential, it's the Cardinals. If things start to go wrong for the Cards, that psyched-up home crowd could absolutely turn in a hurry, and the game could get out of hand quickly. I don't trust the Cardinals offensive line with a deficit when the run is disregarded by the defense. With all this said, the pick is now clear as mud.
The Pick: Eagles to win and cover, 33-24.
Game 2 - Sunday, January 18th, 5:30 CST
Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Take: Going back to my previously described theory, this game follows the traditional path for an NFL game. Can Pittsbugh win in a rout? Yes. Could this game be won by either team close? Yes. Can Baltimore win in a rout? NO. Could I be completely wrong about that? Sure, but I'm guessing I'm not. Yes, anytime you get a great defense involved in a game, the potential for a rout exists (teams like to make things worse when way behind and forced to become one-dimensional against great defenses). That said, if this game were in Baltimore or the Ravens had a veteran QB, a rout might happen. But in a bad weather game with a rookie QB on the road, I just don't see Baltimore running away with it. Especially given the way Baltimore performed offensively in relatively mild weather against Tennessee last weekend.
This brings me to a side note. Can we please, PLEASE, stop with the "He's Not a Rookie Anymore" bull about Joe Flacco or any other guy that's played more than 10 games? HE IS STILL A ROOKIE! I don't care how mature he seems, or how well he "runs the offense;" he's still prone to all the same mistakes of any rookie and the offensive coordinator and head coach are still going to treat him with kid gloves when it comes to gameplanning. Until you get two full offseasons (and you could argue that with year-round training regimens, most rookies don't even get one full offseason before they start their first season), you are still a rookie. Period. Thanks for hearing me out on that. Now back to our normally scheduled program.
So Baltimore won't win in a rout. Pittsburgh could, but I do tend to find this unlikely given the way these teams' previous meetings went (Pittsburgh won both by a combined 7 points). So why is the line where it's at? Because Vegas wants to get more money in on the Baltimore side, but gamblers keep finding ways to assure themselves that Pittsburgh is better and better than Baltimore. Thus, the line grows and grows. The other reasoning is that Baltimore may fall prey to exactly what I described above: fall behind early, become one-dimensional, make things worse against a great defense. As much as it pains me to say it, this seems very possible. I thought veteran playoff quarterback Philip Rivers would handle the Steelers pressure well last week and the game would remain close. It did not. The difference this week, other than the rookie QB, is that Baltimore's running game is not banged up like San Diego's was, and the Ravens seem like they will be more committed to the run precisely because of that rookie QB.
The Pick: The first part of this pick feels like a no-brainer here (I know I'm tempting the football gods by saying that...), and that is Pittsburgh to win. As for the spread, ugh, I'm going to reluctantly take Baltimore to cover. Final: 17-13.
Last week: 0-4 vs. Spread, 1-3 Straight Up
Playoffs: 1-7 vs. Spread, 2-6 Straight Up
Feel free to share your take with me and the other readers by commenting below.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Now going into the Conference Championship weekend, I'm at a loss for what to pick. The Wild Card weekend was crazy enough, with 4 road favorites in 4 games and 2 rookie QBs favored in their games. Last week seemed like it would bring normalcy back to the league as all four home teams were favored and one was even favored by double digits (Carolina). Alas, the football gods chose to torment us once again as none of the games played out as anticipated. Even the game I picked correctly, Pittsburgh to defeat San Diego, saw a combined 59 points scored, the most of the weekend, despite bitter cold and snow throughout.
So how am I supposed to have any confidence picking this weekend's games? Basically, I'm not, so I'm going to go with my gut and hope, which is about all anyone can do at this point. As usual, the odds are provided by Yahoo! Sports, and as always, this is for entertainment purposes only. If I'm not willing to put money on my own picks, I can assure you that you shouldn't either.
Game 1 - Sunday, January 18th, 2:00 CST
Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: There are four possible outcomes of any given NFL game: blowout win by one team or the other, or close win by one team or the other. It's pretty much as simple as that. For most games, one or two of these outcomes can be eliminated and as a bettor you are choosing what you deem to be a fifty-fifty proposition between the remaining two outcomes. Some games are even so obvious as to have one clear outcome in your mind. For example, last year the New England Patriots opened as a 14 point favorite to defeat the New York Giants in the Super Bowl. My gut reaction to this line the very first time I heard it was to take the Giants to cover and I was very confident in that decision. Why? Because I had decided that of the four possible outcomes for that game, the only one that would truly floor me was for the Giants to win in a rout. The other three (Giants or Pats win close, Pats win big) all seemed well within the realm of possibility. Of those three options, only one would result in the Pats covering (Pats win big), so the clear choice was on the Giants to cover. I'm not saying I picked the G-Men to win outright, because I didn't, but I did think they'd keep it close enough, and I was right.
Why am I telling you all of this? Simply because this game blows that line of thinking completely out of the water. Of the four potential outcomes to the Eagles-Cardinals game, NONE would floor me. So let's break this pick down a little further. First, the most surprising result would probably have to be the Cards in a rout. Are they capable of this? Absolutely, and the Eagles certainly could collapse if enough bad things happen early on. But the Cards pretty thoroughly outplayed the Falcons in their Wild Card win, yet only won by 6, so I'm going to say they won't blow out the Eagles (even though they just blew out the Panthers...).
The second possibility is that of a close game either way. So which team would I pick in this situation? That's a very tough question. I've ragged on Andy Reid many times in this blog for his questionable decision-making in crucial game situations, but can I really give the edge to a head coach in his first playoffs as the head hancho (Ken Whisenhunt) over a guy that's coached in four previous Conference Championships and a Super Bowl? I'm leaning no. And as much as I love and respect Kurt Warner, I would certainly give the Eagles the upper hand in the event of any late game drives with the game on the line, largely because of the Eagles' defense. I think Warner and McNabb really compare very well to each other in the postseason (despite McNabb's history of, uh, struggling late in tight games). Also, I'll take David Akers for a crucial field goal attempt over anyone not named Vinatieri any day of the week.
So what about the Eagles in a rout? This seems like a very possible scenario (the Eagles blew out the Cards when the teams met Thanksgiving night in Philly) and if either team looks like they have "Just Glad We Got This Far" potential, it's the Cardinals. If things start to go wrong for the Cards, that psyched-up home crowd could absolutely turn in a hurry, and the game could get out of hand quickly. I don't trust the Cardinals offensive line with a deficit when the run is disregarded by the defense. With all this said, the pick is now clear as mud.
The Pick: Eagles to win and cover, 33-24.
Game 2 - Sunday, January 18th, 5:30 CST
Baltimore Ravens (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Take: Going back to my previously described theory, this game follows the traditional path for an NFL game. Can Pittsbugh win in a rout? Yes. Could this game be won by either team close? Yes. Can Baltimore win in a rout? NO. Could I be completely wrong about that? Sure, but I'm guessing I'm not. Yes, anytime you get a great defense involved in a game, the potential for a rout exists (teams like to make things worse when way behind and forced to become one-dimensional against great defenses). That said, if this game were in Baltimore or the Ravens had a veteran QB, a rout might happen. But in a bad weather game with a rookie QB on the road, I just don't see Baltimore running away with it. Especially given the way Baltimore performed offensively in relatively mild weather against Tennessee last weekend.
This brings me to a side note. Can we please, PLEASE, stop with the "He's Not a Rookie Anymore" bull about Joe Flacco or any other guy that's played more than 10 games? HE IS STILL A ROOKIE! I don't care how mature he seems, or how well he "runs the offense;" he's still prone to all the same mistakes of any rookie and the offensive coordinator and head coach are still going to treat him with kid gloves when it comes to gameplanning. Until you get two full offseasons (and you could argue that with year-round training regimens, most rookies don't even get one full offseason before they start their first season), you are still a rookie. Period. Thanks for hearing me out on that. Now back to our normally scheduled program.
So Baltimore won't win in a rout. Pittsburgh could, but I do tend to find this unlikely given the way these teams' previous meetings went (Pittsburgh won both by a combined 7 points). So why is the line where it's at? Because Vegas wants to get more money in on the Baltimore side, but gamblers keep finding ways to assure themselves that Pittsburgh is better and better than Baltimore. Thus, the line grows and grows. The other reasoning is that Baltimore may fall prey to exactly what I described above: fall behind early, become one-dimensional, make things worse against a great defense. As much as it pains me to say it, this seems very possible. I thought veteran playoff quarterback Philip Rivers would handle the Steelers pressure well last week and the game would remain close. It did not. The difference this week, other than the rookie QB, is that Baltimore's running game is not banged up like San Diego's was, and the Ravens seem like they will be more committed to the run precisely because of that rookie QB.
The Pick: The first part of this pick feels like a no-brainer here (I know I'm tempting the football gods by saying that...), and that is Pittsburgh to win. As for the spread, ugh, I'm going to reluctantly take Baltimore to cover. Final: 17-13.
Last week: 0-4 vs. Spread, 1-3 Straight Up
Playoffs: 1-7 vs. Spread, 2-6 Straight Up
Feel free to share your take with me and the other readers by commenting below.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, January 12, 2009
What to Make of This Weekend
I've been saying all along that this has been one of the strangest NFL seasons I can remember, so I suppose the results from this weekend's games should not come as a huge surprise. When the best teams in the league are a Giants team that seemed to be riding its momentum from their 2008 postseason run (until their star wide receiver shot himself in the leg...) and a Titans team that abandoned its opening day starting QB after less than one game for a 36-year-old journeyman, I guess you can probably say things didn't exactly go as expected.
From week 1, we knew this was going to be an odd year. Other than the Titans benching an injured Vince Young for the well-aged Kerry Collins (Young's injury was minor, but the benching turned out to be permanent), we saw the prohibitive favorite New England Patriots lose the reigning league MVP, Tom Brady, for the year week 1, thrusting a player (Matt Cassel) into the starting lineup that famously hadn't started a game since high school. We also saw a hurricane again derail a team's season (although a brutal opening schedule for the Texans was already a probably going to keep them from succeeding) and a superstar quarterback, Peyton Manning, struggle with injury, seemingly for the first time in his illustrious career.
As the season progressed, the good separated from the bad, but those on both ends came as huge surprises. The previously 1-15 Dolphins showed stunning signs of life, the Giants looked like a dominant force that was on a mission to repeat, the Titans were the final unbeaten team through 10 games, the Falcons were reborn with a new star QB (Matt Ryan) and a budding star RB (Michael Turner), and the entirety of teams in Western divisions looked like j.v. teams. On the other side, the much-hyped Jaguars never found any traction and eventually gave up on the season by week 10. The Detroit Lions finally rid themselves of GM Matt Millen, but celebrated by not winning a game all year. The also-hyped Browns suffered injuries and a major quarterback controversy before settling on Ken Dorsey to lead their failed season.
Why am I rehashing all of these old stories? Again, this is to give you the proper background for one of the most stunning postseason weekends in sports history.
On Saturday, the early game was one of two very popular upset picks: the Ravens over the Titans. I did not (and still don't, really) think the Ravens had the talent to compete with the Titans, and it showed on the field on Saturday. Unfortunately for Tennessee, talent alone does not win football games. The Ravens gameplan was very clear: control the ball, take very few chances and wait for the Titans to make mistakes. And they did. While the Ravens were very cautious offensively, picking their spots to take chances down the field, the Titans were aggressive and moved the ball very well. But the Ravens defense was its normal advantageous self, and each time the Titans made an error, the Ravens were there to pounce. I still feel the Titans are the better team, and it even showed, but luck was clearly on Baltimore's side (don't get me started on the blown delay of game call) and Baltimore took full advantage for the upset.
Little did we know, this was just the appetizer, and the best upset dish was to be served Saturday night. As I wrote on Friday, many Divisional round games have given us some great finishes, and often these games have come in the late-Saturday time slot. The Cardinals-Panthers game will not go down as a classic for one reason: only one team participated. Much of the criticism on Panthers coach John Fox in the aftermath of the stunning 33-13 blowout loss is on his defense's inability to adjust to the Cardinals offensive gameplan; that is, get the ball to Larry Freaking Fitzgerald. As if anyone thought the Cards would do otherwise. Yet L-Fitz was routinely single covered or running free in a zone while the Panthers secondary watched him go wherever he wanted.
Clearly, Carolina's inability to stop the Cards' greatest weapon doomed them, but let's not let the Panthers offensive gameplan off the hook. As much as we'd like to pile on poor Jake Delhomme for his career-worst performance, don't let the coaches get away easy. After the opening drive, the Panthers inexplicably abandoned the run and went into pass-wacky, air-it-out mode. Delhomme was constantly throwing deep (to Muhsin Muhammad, of all people) while the league's #3 ranked rush offense went under-utilized. Even knowing that they were behind by two scores fairly early, there's still no excuse for this. Not only did the Panthers abandon the run, but they also failed to use their RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the passing game. Nor did they find a way to get arguably their best playmaker, WR Steve Smith, the ball in space with a chance to beat defenders 1-on-1.
Now, while it's easy to pick on the Panthers, credit certainly must be given to the Cardinals as well. Kurt Warner is playing at an elite QB level, largely because his offensive line is keeping him upright. There is no doubt that this has been the key to Warner's success in his career: keep him clean, and he'll win you games. If he gets knocked around, very bad things happen. (NOTE TO PHILADELPHIA: Get pressure on Kurt Warner!) As for the Cardinals defense, whoever found the on-switch for that unit deserves a big raise. They are playing with as much intensity and confidence as you'll ever see a defense have. They really remind me of the Colts defense the year they won the Super Bowl; it's been that kind of miraculous transformation from the regular season to the playoffs, although there's no single ingredient that has changed for Arizona like there was with Indy (Bob Sanders was hurt until the playoffs).
Sunday's games were a little less surprising, maybe because we were all so stunned still from the night before. The early game was probably the most-predicted upset (of the five Fox pre-game talking-heads, all except Michael Strahan (duh) picked the Eagles to win, although most of their reasons were weak at best) of the weekend. Philadelphia, legend has it, reminds everyone of last year's Giants. Fine, but they're facing this year's Giants, aka the NFC's best team, so is this some Bizarro football game, or what? Well, turns out Eli Manning really, really, REALLY, misses Plaxico Burress after all. The Eagles won the game by minimizing the damage the Giants could do on the ground and making Eli beat them, which he simply couldn't with that receiving corps.
On a side topic, what is it with Peyton Manning and Eli Manning's fluttery passes? For two players that can throw deep just fine, and can muster "zip" on their passes from time-to-time, they both throw some of the ugliest ducks you'll ever see. Don't get me wrong, they're both tremendously accurate with those ducks, but when they face bad weather (see: Peyton in New England in January, Eli at home any time after December 1st), those flutter-balls miss way too often. Can anyone explain the logic behind this?
Anyway, the Eagles played a very solid game. McNabb showed ample arm strength and escapability to survive the tough playing conditions and Andy Reid wasn't put into a situation where he had to make any real difficult decisions. The Eagles were clearly very well prepared for the game, and they had a great game plan: move McNabb around to free up short passes and occasionally throw deep. The running game was not used much, but it wasn't needed much as the Giants simply couldn't get to McNabb with their pass rush, no matter how obvious the passing situation was. You give the Giants a healthy Justin Tuck and Plaxico Burress, not to mention Osi Umenyiora, and this could be a much different game.
Finally, the universe returned to normal for the Sunday afternoon game between the Steelers and Chargers. As incredible (read: lucky) as the Chargers postseason run had been, they were clearly a flawed team throughout the season and it was just a matter of time before a team was able to exploit those flaws in a playoff game. Even if the Steelers hadn't done it, I don't doubt the Ravens would have themselves. Here's the flaw: their defense is only mediocre without Shawne Merriman and they can't stop the run. The plan of attack, as the Steelers showed, was to run, run, run and then throw deep when the safeties inevitably came up to help stop the run. Game, set, match. The Steelers were able to completely neutralize San Diego's running game, really eliminating Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett from the game entirely until Sproles's late, meaningless TD (on a catch, no less).
In the end, it was a crazy weekend of football, with the home teams going just 1-3, and with the three losing home teams combining for just 34 points. So the next question is: Is a first round bye really beneficial for the teams that get them? But that's a topic for another day.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
From week 1, we knew this was going to be an odd year. Other than the Titans benching an injured Vince Young for the well-aged Kerry Collins (Young's injury was minor, but the benching turned out to be permanent), we saw the prohibitive favorite New England Patriots lose the reigning league MVP, Tom Brady, for the year week 1, thrusting a player (Matt Cassel) into the starting lineup that famously hadn't started a game since high school. We also saw a hurricane again derail a team's season (although a brutal opening schedule for the Texans was already a probably going to keep them from succeeding) and a superstar quarterback, Peyton Manning, struggle with injury, seemingly for the first time in his illustrious career.
As the season progressed, the good separated from the bad, but those on both ends came as huge surprises. The previously 1-15 Dolphins showed stunning signs of life, the Giants looked like a dominant force that was on a mission to repeat, the Titans were the final unbeaten team through 10 games, the Falcons were reborn with a new star QB (Matt Ryan) and a budding star RB (Michael Turner), and the entirety of teams in Western divisions looked like j.v. teams. On the other side, the much-hyped Jaguars never found any traction and eventually gave up on the season by week 10. The Detroit Lions finally rid themselves of GM Matt Millen, but celebrated by not winning a game all year. The also-hyped Browns suffered injuries and a major quarterback controversy before settling on Ken Dorsey to lead their failed season.
Why am I rehashing all of these old stories? Again, this is to give you the proper background for one of the most stunning postseason weekends in sports history.
On Saturday, the early game was one of two very popular upset picks: the Ravens over the Titans. I did not (and still don't, really) think the Ravens had the talent to compete with the Titans, and it showed on the field on Saturday. Unfortunately for Tennessee, talent alone does not win football games. The Ravens gameplan was very clear: control the ball, take very few chances and wait for the Titans to make mistakes. And they did. While the Ravens were very cautious offensively, picking their spots to take chances down the field, the Titans were aggressive and moved the ball very well. But the Ravens defense was its normal advantageous self, and each time the Titans made an error, the Ravens were there to pounce. I still feel the Titans are the better team, and it even showed, but luck was clearly on Baltimore's side (don't get me started on the blown delay of game call) and Baltimore took full advantage for the upset.
Little did we know, this was just the appetizer, and the best upset dish was to be served Saturday night. As I wrote on Friday, many Divisional round games have given us some great finishes, and often these games have come in the late-Saturday time slot. The Cardinals-Panthers game will not go down as a classic for one reason: only one team participated. Much of the criticism on Panthers coach John Fox in the aftermath of the stunning 33-13 blowout loss is on his defense's inability to adjust to the Cardinals offensive gameplan; that is, get the ball to Larry Freaking Fitzgerald. As if anyone thought the Cards would do otherwise. Yet L-Fitz was routinely single covered or running free in a zone while the Panthers secondary watched him go wherever he wanted.
Clearly, Carolina's inability to stop the Cards' greatest weapon doomed them, but let's not let the Panthers offensive gameplan off the hook. As much as we'd like to pile on poor Jake Delhomme for his career-worst performance, don't let the coaches get away easy. After the opening drive, the Panthers inexplicably abandoned the run and went into pass-wacky, air-it-out mode. Delhomme was constantly throwing deep (to Muhsin Muhammad, of all people) while the league's #3 ranked rush offense went under-utilized. Even knowing that they were behind by two scores fairly early, there's still no excuse for this. Not only did the Panthers abandon the run, but they also failed to use their RBs Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the passing game. Nor did they find a way to get arguably their best playmaker, WR Steve Smith, the ball in space with a chance to beat defenders 1-on-1.
Now, while it's easy to pick on the Panthers, credit certainly must be given to the Cardinals as well. Kurt Warner is playing at an elite QB level, largely because his offensive line is keeping him upright. There is no doubt that this has been the key to Warner's success in his career: keep him clean, and he'll win you games. If he gets knocked around, very bad things happen. (NOTE TO PHILADELPHIA: Get pressure on Kurt Warner!) As for the Cardinals defense, whoever found the on-switch for that unit deserves a big raise. They are playing with as much intensity and confidence as you'll ever see a defense have. They really remind me of the Colts defense the year they won the Super Bowl; it's been that kind of miraculous transformation from the regular season to the playoffs, although there's no single ingredient that has changed for Arizona like there was with Indy (Bob Sanders was hurt until the playoffs).
Sunday's games were a little less surprising, maybe because we were all so stunned still from the night before. The early game was probably the most-predicted upset (of the five Fox pre-game talking-heads, all except Michael Strahan (duh) picked the Eagles to win, although most of their reasons were weak at best) of the weekend. Philadelphia, legend has it, reminds everyone of last year's Giants. Fine, but they're facing this year's Giants, aka the NFC's best team, so is this some Bizarro football game, or what? Well, turns out Eli Manning really, really, REALLY, misses Plaxico Burress after all. The Eagles won the game by minimizing the damage the Giants could do on the ground and making Eli beat them, which he simply couldn't with that receiving corps.
On a side topic, what is it with Peyton Manning and Eli Manning's fluttery passes? For two players that can throw deep just fine, and can muster "zip" on their passes from time-to-time, they both throw some of the ugliest ducks you'll ever see. Don't get me wrong, they're both tremendously accurate with those ducks, but when they face bad weather (see: Peyton in New England in January, Eli at home any time after December 1st), those flutter-balls miss way too often. Can anyone explain the logic behind this?
Anyway, the Eagles played a very solid game. McNabb showed ample arm strength and escapability to survive the tough playing conditions and Andy Reid wasn't put into a situation where he had to make any real difficult decisions. The Eagles were clearly very well prepared for the game, and they had a great game plan: move McNabb around to free up short passes and occasionally throw deep. The running game was not used much, but it wasn't needed much as the Giants simply couldn't get to McNabb with their pass rush, no matter how obvious the passing situation was. You give the Giants a healthy Justin Tuck and Plaxico Burress, not to mention Osi Umenyiora, and this could be a much different game.
Finally, the universe returned to normal for the Sunday afternoon game between the Steelers and Chargers. As incredible (read: lucky) as the Chargers postseason run had been, they were clearly a flawed team throughout the season and it was just a matter of time before a team was able to exploit those flaws in a playoff game. Even if the Steelers hadn't done it, I don't doubt the Ravens would have themselves. Here's the flaw: their defense is only mediocre without Shawne Merriman and they can't stop the run. The plan of attack, as the Steelers showed, was to run, run, run and then throw deep when the safeties inevitably came up to help stop the run. Game, set, match. The Steelers were able to completely neutralize San Diego's running game, really eliminating Darren Sproles and Michael Bennett from the game entirely until Sproles's late, meaningless TD (on a catch, no less).
In the end, it was a crazy weekend of football, with the home teams going just 1-3, and with the three losing home teams combining for just 34 points. So the next question is: Is a first round bye really beneficial for the teams that get them? But that's a topic for another day.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Friday, January 9, 2009
The Best NFL Weekend of the Year
The NFL playoffs continue tomorrow and Sunday as the Divisonal round gets under way. This round is historically the most exciting and interesting weekend of the postseason as we get our final week of four-plus football games until August (gasp!) and we get to see the league's top four teams in action against the four hottest wild-card teams. Many of the greatest NFL games I've seen in my lifetime have come in this round. A few examples, you ask? Why, I'd love to! (In no particular order.)
1. "The Snow Game" AKA "The Tuck Rule Game" - In 2002, the playoffs for the 2001 season, the Patriots' dynasty was born in earnest on one of the most controversial and obscure calls in NFL history. New England hosted the Oakland Raiders as a massive blizzard slammed into the New England area and the field was barely visible in this night game that became an instant classic. On a crucial late-game Patriots drive, trailing by 3, Tom Brady was sacked by blitzing cornerback Charles Woodson of the Raiders and the ball came loose. The Raiders quickly jumped on the ball for what appeared to be a game-clinching turnover, but Patriots coach Bill Belichick, in either a brilliant or desperate move, challenged the play on a largely unknown rule, the Tuck Rule, that states that a QB that loses the ball when trying to bring it back into his body is considered to have thrown an incomplete pass. The call was overturned, the Pats made a game-tying field goal and went on to win in overtime on their way to their first ever Super Bowl win.
2. Two OT Game - In 2004, the red-hot St. Louis Rams hosted the Carolina Panthers in the game that effectively marked the end of the "Greatest Show On Turf" era in St. Louis. The Rams offense was well off its dominant pace of the regular season and the Panthers played steady defense to take a 23-12 lead in the fourth quarter. St. Louis rallied, however, and after a Marshall Faulk TD with a successful 2-point conversion, the Rams would recover an onside kick and drive down with a chance to win. In a baffling occurrence, the normally hyper-aggressive Rams head coach Mike Martz, inside the Panthers 20-yard line with under a minute left and a time out remaining, elected to play for the tie and sent the game into overtime. The game would end up going into a second overtime (which prompted most fans to start wondering if there would be a second halftime; turns out, their would have been), but on the first play of the second OT, Panthers QB Jake Delhomme hit Steve Smith for a game-winning 69-yard TD. The Panthers would go on to lose the Super Bowl to the Patriots.
3. The Drunken Canadian Kicker Game - In 2005, the Indianapolis Colts looked like they were going to finally get over the hump. The day before this game, the Colts arch rival New England had come up short against the Denver Broncos (27-13, yay!) in Denver, meaning a Colts win and they would face the Broncos at home for Peyton Manning's first shot at a Super Bowl. The Steelers were the #6 seed in the AFC and had "snuck in" with a 10-6 record, facing division rival Cincinnati in the opening round and dispatching the Bengals after blowing out Carson Palmer's knee in the first quarter. The game took a stunning turn as the Steelers jumped out to a 14 point first quarter lead and led 14-3 at halftime as Manning again struggled against a 3-4 defense. The Steelers would add another TD in the third quarter to lead 21-3, and the game looked like it was slipping away.
Then in the fourth quarter the Colts offense came to life, scoring two TDs to get within 3 points. With 1:20 to play, on fourth and 16, Manning was sacked at the Colts 2 yard line, seeming to end the game. But on the Steelers' next play, tailback Jerome Bettis, relegated to a goal-line back role in his final season, fumbled the ball (his first fumble of the season) on a dive play and Colts safety Bob Sanders picked up the ball with just one man to beat: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben would make a miraculous tackle, though, and the Colts would take over at their own 42 with all three timeouts in hand. Manning would try to move the Colts for a TD, but after limited success Indy was forced to try a 46-yard field goal to tie with 0:17 to play, and Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt would miss the kick badly, wide right. The Steelers would go on to win the game and the Super Bowl.
The game would be even more memorable because of the infamous rant from Manning at the Pro Bowl that year where he called out Vanderjagt, who had gone on a talk show in Canada, his home country, and ripped Manning and Colts coach Tony Dungy for lacking emotion in their leadership. Manning fired back in a Pro Bowl interview calling Vanderjagt "our idiot kicker who got liquored up and ran his mouth off."
4. "4th and 26" - In 2004, this game became infamous for one play. In a tight game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers in which the Eagles had rallied from a 14-0 second quarter deficit, the Pack led 17-14 with 1:12 left in the fourth quarter. The Eagles had the ball and were facing 4th down with 26 yards to go, and Donovan McNabb found wideout Freddie "FredEx" Mitchell (FredEx because he "always delivers"... or maybe because that's where he works now...) for 28 yards as safety Darren Sharper had inexplicably dropped beyond the first down marker allowing Mitchell to run freely to the sticks. The loss would cost the Packers defensive coordinator his job and the Eagles would go on to win the game in overtime before losing to the Panthers in the NFC Championship game.
These are just a few of the great games we've seen in this round this decade. Not included are a couple other famous Colts losses, the Giants upset of the Cowboys last year, and many others. Let's just hope the trend continues this year. Now on to the picks (as usual, the odds can be found here). I'm going with scores this time for a little added amusement.
Game 1 - Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Tennessee Titans (Saturday, January 10th, 3:30 CST)
The Take: I love the Ravens defense. They were the best unit to play last weekend, hands down. They can stop the run, they can pressure the QB, they can make big plays (turnovers, third down stops, etc.). Heck, they can even score from time to time. That said, there is a reason the Titans earned the #1 seed in the AFC. They have a great defense, too, and this has been lost over the last six games as the Titans went 3-3, but that was with stud defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch out and with Albert Haynesworth missing time at the end. The Titans say they're now healthy, and after a bye week I'm ready to believe it. As much as I love the Ravens defense, their offense scares the hell out of me. The Dolphins showed a little last week against Baltimore's offense, but I think we found out that Miami wasn't as good as I thought. The Titans' defense IS as good as we thought weeks 1-10 of the season, and they'll prove it tomorrow. This could be a great game to watch if you love defense, because neither offense is going to do much. In the end, though, I think the Titans get more out of their veteran QB Kerry Collins than the Ravens get out of their rookie QB Joe Flacco.
The Pick: Titans win and cover narrowly, 17-13.
Game 2 - Arizona Cardinals (+10) at Carolina Panthers (Saturday, January 10th, 7:15 CST)
The Take: By now you've probably heard all the reasons the Cards are dead in this one, but if not, here they are one more time: The Panthers were the only 8-0 home team in the league this year. The Cards were just 3-5 on the road. The Cards were winless in the Eastern time zone this season. The weather could be a factor and the Cards can't run consistently. The Panthers have a solid defense and a great rushing attack. The Panthers have an elite pass rusher in Julius Peppers and Kurt Warner likes to fumble when hit, or touched, or breathed on wrong. That enough? No? Then how about the Panthers game-breaking wideout Steve Smith who's been uncoverable this year and the fact that the Cards have no answer for him in their secondary? I think that about covers it.
The Pick: Panthers to win and cover, 34-21.
Game 3 - Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at New York Giants (Sunday, January 11th, 12:00 CST)
The Take: This seems to be the year of the Wild Card "dark horse." Everyone seems to love three of the four wild card winners (Eagles, Chargers, Ravens) to pull an upset. Frankly, I don't see it. As well as the Eagles played down the stretch of the season and in their win at Minnesota last weekend, the Giants are a whole different animal. Many want to point out that the Eagles beat the Giants in week 15, but how can anyone take a game seriously that was: a) meaningless to the Giants, b) critical for the Eagles, and c) the week after Plaxico Burress decided to take target practice in his pants. Certainly that Giants team was not the one we'll be seeing Sunday. My biggest question in this game is the health of Brandon Jacobs for the Giants, but I think this is only a minimal concern given how well Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw have run in his absence. Interesting note: amazing how neither of the #1 seeds currently have a "star" wide receiver (thanks to Plexiglass's shooting spree). Maybe those prima donna's aren't worth the headache after all.
The Pick: The Giants to win and cover, 20-10.
Game 4 - San Diego Chargers (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, January 11th, 3:45 CST)
The Take: The size of this point spread is rather surprising considering how much love the Chargers seem to be getting in the media this week. It looks like the betting public isn't buying into the hype, and you can count me in on that. The Chargers are a nice story (unless you're a Broncos or Colts fan) and their turnaround is impressive, but I don't understand why everyone is underselling the Steelers the way they are. Pittsburgh has all the same ingredients this year as they had in 2005 when they won the Super Bowl: a great defense that can kill the run and rush the passer, a good running game (this has been less potent than the Steelers have had historically, but with a week off Willie Parker may be his healthiest of the year (they hope)) and a quarterback that has a knack for pulling off big drives in close games. Seems promising to me. Certainly Roethlisberger's health after his week 17 concussion is a question mark, but I don't think he has to be much better than average for the Steelers to pull this one out.
The Pick: Steelers to win, Chargers to cover, 16-14.
This is the point where I remind you that this is for entertainment purposes, only:
Last Weekend: 1-3 vs. spread, 1-3 choosing winners.
BCS Bowls: 3-2 vs. spread, 3-2 choosing winners.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
1. "The Snow Game" AKA "The Tuck Rule Game" - In 2002, the playoffs for the 2001 season, the Patriots' dynasty was born in earnest on one of the most controversial and obscure calls in NFL history. New England hosted the Oakland Raiders as a massive blizzard slammed into the New England area and the field was barely visible in this night game that became an instant classic. On a crucial late-game Patriots drive, trailing by 3, Tom Brady was sacked by blitzing cornerback Charles Woodson of the Raiders and the ball came loose. The Raiders quickly jumped on the ball for what appeared to be a game-clinching turnover, but Patriots coach Bill Belichick, in either a brilliant or desperate move, challenged the play on a largely unknown rule, the Tuck Rule, that states that a QB that loses the ball when trying to bring it back into his body is considered to have thrown an incomplete pass. The call was overturned, the Pats made a game-tying field goal and went on to win in overtime on their way to their first ever Super Bowl win.
2. Two OT Game - In 2004, the red-hot St. Louis Rams hosted the Carolina Panthers in the game that effectively marked the end of the "Greatest Show On Turf" era in St. Louis. The Rams offense was well off its dominant pace of the regular season and the Panthers played steady defense to take a 23-12 lead in the fourth quarter. St. Louis rallied, however, and after a Marshall Faulk TD with a successful 2-point conversion, the Rams would recover an onside kick and drive down with a chance to win. In a baffling occurrence, the normally hyper-aggressive Rams head coach Mike Martz, inside the Panthers 20-yard line with under a minute left and a time out remaining, elected to play for the tie and sent the game into overtime. The game would end up going into a second overtime (which prompted most fans to start wondering if there would be a second halftime; turns out, their would have been), but on the first play of the second OT, Panthers QB Jake Delhomme hit Steve Smith for a game-winning 69-yard TD. The Panthers would go on to lose the Super Bowl to the Patriots.
3. The Drunken Canadian Kicker Game - In 2005, the Indianapolis Colts looked like they were going to finally get over the hump. The day before this game, the Colts arch rival New England had come up short against the Denver Broncos (27-13, yay!) in Denver, meaning a Colts win and they would face the Broncos at home for Peyton Manning's first shot at a Super Bowl. The Steelers were the #6 seed in the AFC and had "snuck in" with a 10-6 record, facing division rival Cincinnati in the opening round and dispatching the Bengals after blowing out Carson Palmer's knee in the first quarter. The game took a stunning turn as the Steelers jumped out to a 14 point first quarter lead and led 14-3 at halftime as Manning again struggled against a 3-4 defense. The Steelers would add another TD in the third quarter to lead 21-3, and the game looked like it was slipping away.
Then in the fourth quarter the Colts offense came to life, scoring two TDs to get within 3 points. With 1:20 to play, on fourth and 16, Manning was sacked at the Colts 2 yard line, seeming to end the game. But on the Steelers' next play, tailback Jerome Bettis, relegated to a goal-line back role in his final season, fumbled the ball (his first fumble of the season) on a dive play and Colts safety Bob Sanders picked up the ball with just one man to beat: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben would make a miraculous tackle, though, and the Colts would take over at their own 42 with all three timeouts in hand. Manning would try to move the Colts for a TD, but after limited success Indy was forced to try a 46-yard field goal to tie with 0:17 to play, and Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt would miss the kick badly, wide right. The Steelers would go on to win the game and the Super Bowl.
The game would be even more memorable because of the infamous rant from Manning at the Pro Bowl that year where he called out Vanderjagt, who had gone on a talk show in Canada, his home country, and ripped Manning and Colts coach Tony Dungy for lacking emotion in their leadership. Manning fired back in a Pro Bowl interview calling Vanderjagt "our idiot kicker who got liquored up and ran his mouth off."
4. "4th and 26" - In 2004, this game became infamous for one play. In a tight game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers in which the Eagles had rallied from a 14-0 second quarter deficit, the Pack led 17-14 with 1:12 left in the fourth quarter. The Eagles had the ball and were facing 4th down with 26 yards to go, and Donovan McNabb found wideout Freddie "FredEx" Mitchell (FredEx because he "always delivers"... or maybe because that's where he works now...) for 28 yards as safety Darren Sharper had inexplicably dropped beyond the first down marker allowing Mitchell to run freely to the sticks. The loss would cost the Packers defensive coordinator his job and the Eagles would go on to win the game in overtime before losing to the Panthers in the NFC Championship game.
These are just a few of the great games we've seen in this round this decade. Not included are a couple other famous Colts losses, the Giants upset of the Cowboys last year, and many others. Let's just hope the trend continues this year. Now on to the picks (as usual, the odds can be found here). I'm going with scores this time for a little added amusement.
Game 1 - Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Tennessee Titans (Saturday, January 10th, 3:30 CST)
The Take: I love the Ravens defense. They were the best unit to play last weekend, hands down. They can stop the run, they can pressure the QB, they can make big plays (turnovers, third down stops, etc.). Heck, they can even score from time to time. That said, there is a reason the Titans earned the #1 seed in the AFC. They have a great defense, too, and this has been lost over the last six games as the Titans went 3-3, but that was with stud defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch out and with Albert Haynesworth missing time at the end. The Titans say they're now healthy, and after a bye week I'm ready to believe it. As much as I love the Ravens defense, their offense scares the hell out of me. The Dolphins showed a little last week against Baltimore's offense, but I think we found out that Miami wasn't as good as I thought. The Titans' defense IS as good as we thought weeks 1-10 of the season, and they'll prove it tomorrow. This could be a great game to watch if you love defense, because neither offense is going to do much. In the end, though, I think the Titans get more out of their veteran QB Kerry Collins than the Ravens get out of their rookie QB Joe Flacco.
The Pick: Titans win and cover narrowly, 17-13.
Game 2 - Arizona Cardinals (+10) at Carolina Panthers (Saturday, January 10th, 7:15 CST)
The Take: By now you've probably heard all the reasons the Cards are dead in this one, but if not, here they are one more time: The Panthers were the only 8-0 home team in the league this year. The Cards were just 3-5 on the road. The Cards were winless in the Eastern time zone this season. The weather could be a factor and the Cards can't run consistently. The Panthers have a solid defense and a great rushing attack. The Panthers have an elite pass rusher in Julius Peppers and Kurt Warner likes to fumble when hit, or touched, or breathed on wrong. That enough? No? Then how about the Panthers game-breaking wideout Steve Smith who's been uncoverable this year and the fact that the Cards have no answer for him in their secondary? I think that about covers it.
The Pick: Panthers to win and cover, 34-21.
Game 3 - Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at New York Giants (Sunday, January 11th, 12:00 CST)
The Take: This seems to be the year of the Wild Card "dark horse." Everyone seems to love three of the four wild card winners (Eagles, Chargers, Ravens) to pull an upset. Frankly, I don't see it. As well as the Eagles played down the stretch of the season and in their win at Minnesota last weekend, the Giants are a whole different animal. Many want to point out that the Eagles beat the Giants in week 15, but how can anyone take a game seriously that was: a) meaningless to the Giants, b) critical for the Eagles, and c) the week after Plaxico Burress decided to take target practice in his pants. Certainly that Giants team was not the one we'll be seeing Sunday. My biggest question in this game is the health of Brandon Jacobs for the Giants, but I think this is only a minimal concern given how well Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw have run in his absence. Interesting note: amazing how neither of the #1 seeds currently have a "star" wide receiver (thanks to Plexiglass's shooting spree). Maybe those prima donna's aren't worth the headache after all.
The Pick: The Giants to win and cover, 20-10.
Game 4 - San Diego Chargers (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, January 11th, 3:45 CST)
The Take: The size of this point spread is rather surprising considering how much love the Chargers seem to be getting in the media this week. It looks like the betting public isn't buying into the hype, and you can count me in on that. The Chargers are a nice story (unless you're a Broncos or Colts fan) and their turnaround is impressive, but I don't understand why everyone is underselling the Steelers the way they are. Pittsburgh has all the same ingredients this year as they had in 2005 when they won the Super Bowl: a great defense that can kill the run and rush the passer, a good running game (this has been less potent than the Steelers have had historically, but with a week off Willie Parker may be his healthiest of the year (they hope)) and a quarterback that has a knack for pulling off big drives in close games. Seems promising to me. Certainly Roethlisberger's health after his week 17 concussion is a question mark, but I don't think he has to be much better than average for the Steelers to pull this one out.
The Pick: Steelers to win, Chargers to cover, 16-14.
This is the point where I remind you that this is for entertainment purposes, only:
Last Weekend: 1-3 vs. spread, 1-3 choosing winners.
BCS Bowls: 3-2 vs. spread, 3-2 choosing winners.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, January 5, 2009
The Weekend That Was
Starting with Friday night's Utah-Alabama game, we were treated to some very good football games over the weekend and there were a lot interesting happenings in these matchups. Perhaps this wasn't an abnormally strong weekend of football, being that none of the games stood out as all-time greats, but we got a good collection of close games on Friday and Saturday and two dominant performances on Sunday.
Let's start with Friday night's Sugar Bowl. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm three for three against the spread in the BCS bowls so far, but I was wrong on the winner in this one. As a Mountain West graduate and fan, I was optimistic that the Utes would be able to at least keep the game close against an Alabama team that I believed was physically superior. Instead it was the Utah team imposing its will on the Crimson Tide in the first quarter, jumping out 21-0 and never really looking back. The most impressive aspect, in addition to Brian Johnson's 300-yard passing day, for Utah was their total dominance defensively. While Alabama scored 17 points, their TDs came on a short field and on a punt return, neither on long, controlled drives. Now Tide fans are arguing (and rightly so) that they were handicapped by the suspension of star left tackle Andre Smith, possibly the best offensive lineman in the country and a key cog in the Alabama running attack. This certainly made things more difficult on the Alabama offense, but I'd hardly call this the difference in the game. Utah was dominant on both offense and defense, and clearly has made a case for being the #1 team in the country, finishing as the lone unbeaten.
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Next let's look at the Arizona Cardinals win over the Atlanta Falcons. As I patted myself on the back for the BCS bowl picks, I'll admit I was just 1 for 4 on the weekend in picking the NFL. The funny thing is, none of the results I was incorrect on were particularly surprising. First, the Cardinals win was one I missed, and I regretted this pick Saturday as I started watching the game. I can't believe I bought into the hype of a rookie quarterback being favored on the road. Not so smart. This isn't to say that Atlanta's Matt Ryan was the reason the Falcons lost. On the contrary, it was inspired play by the Cardinals defense, particularly their run defense, that was the stunner of this game. Just three weeks after being gashed by Adrian Peterson in a 35-14 home loss and two weeks after giving up over 200 yards rushing to the Pats on the road, the Cards used the crowd to fuel an impressive performance and shut down the league's #2 rusher. Michael Turner was stuck in his backfield all game, finding no room to run and even being in the middle of a Cardinals touchdown when he and Ryan were hit before they could even complete the exchange on a handoff. Maybe the Cardinals still aren't the better team, but they stepped up to the challenge while the Falcons failed to execute.
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The late game Saturday was brutal. Absolutely brutal. I'm a big Peyton Manning fan. Let's get that out in the air right now. I also have a more-than-slight dislike for the Chargers, considering that I'm a Broncos fan. That said, the Colts kind of gave this one away, and the Chargers can completely thank punter Mike Scifres for this victory. First, the Colts: where is your vaunted offense? Come on! Indianapolis failed to get any real productive drives going late in the game when they were protecting a 3-point lead. On their final possession, with just over two minutes left and a chance to seal a victory with a first down, the Colts managed to give up a sack. Maybe Peyton Manning isn't the one that struggles with the 3-4 defense; maybe it's the Indy offensive line and their coaches that are the problem. How a team missing its best pass rusher could get constant pressure on Manning AND shut down the Colts running game is beyond me. There's no doubt in my mind that the Colts' offensive struggles were the reason they ultimately lost, because their defense seemed like it was on the field the entire second half.
Second, Mike Scifres may have had the best day of any punter in NFL history. All six of his punts pinned the Colts inside their 20 yard line, and four of those put the Colts inside their own five. This includes the most crucial punt, pinning the Colts at their own 1 late in the fourth quarter when the Chargers were still trailing and needed to get the ball back with good field position to have a chance. An absolutely incredible performance.
Last point on this one, and I won't dwell on it because things like this usually come off sounding like sour grapes, but what game, exactly, were the officials watching? Seriously. How in the world could the Chargers only be flagged three times, and only once on offense, while the Colts were flagged three times on the Chargers' game-winning drive ALONE. Indy was penalized a total of nine times, to the aforementioned three against the Chargers. This cannot possibly be accurate, and may well have been the difference in the game. I don't necessarily ask that the refs keep the flags in their pocket all game, but at least TRY to call the game evenly, and maybe not throw the flag on close calls late in a tight game (like the crushing defensive holding on 3rd and 8 on San Diego's final drive).
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The Miami-Baltimore game is probably the one pick I most wish I had back. I had the feeling that this game would turn out exactly the way it did, but I hoped the Dolphins would prove me wrong. Yes, I said I thought that Chad Pennington would be the difference in the game, and I was right, in the wrong sense. Pennington struggled to deal with the constant pressure that Baltimore put on him, making poor throws and questionable decisions throughout the game. The reason for this was that the Ravens completely shut down the Dolphins' running game early on, and then they put together a lead that made the Phins have to pass to try and come back. This, of course, was the ultimate recipe for disaster. As good as Pennington and Miami's offense have been this year, they have never shown the ability to put up points quickly or in bunches, so any kind of a significant deficit (two scores or more) was likely to spell doom for the Dolphins. Indeed, I could well have called it game over as soon as Baltimore's Ed Reed made his first pick and took it back for a score. At this point, you just had to have the feeling that the Dolphins weren't going to be able to come from behind in that game, and quickly the mistakes and turnovers piled up and the game was out of reach.
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The game I got right! Yay! The Eagles-Vikings tilt was rather easy to call, and the only thing that might have changed the equation was if the Vikings had done the smart thing and played Gus Frerotte instead of Tarvaris Jackson. With the Vikings missing two starting defensive linemen, and Donovan McNabb playing extremely well toward the end of the season, the Vikings were behind the eight-ball to begin with. As good as Adrian Peterson is, he cannot carry the team if there is absolutely no threat of a passing game, which was the case for most of the game for Minnesota. The Eagles led early and the Asante Samuel TAINT (TD after INT; copyright Bill Simmons, ESPN.com) took the Metrodome crowd largely out of the game, something the Eagles had to do to really have a chance. In the end, after Brian Westbrook had successfully proven that he's the best receiving back in football with a 71-yard catch and run on a screen pass, Jackson was asked to win the game for the Vikings and this just wasn't going to happen. All told, the Eagles may be the "scary team" in the NFC playoffs this year, so maybe the Vikings were just victim #1.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Let's start with Friday night's Sugar Bowl. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm three for three against the spread in the BCS bowls so far, but I was wrong on the winner in this one. As a Mountain West graduate and fan, I was optimistic that the Utes would be able to at least keep the game close against an Alabama team that I believed was physically superior. Instead it was the Utah team imposing its will on the Crimson Tide in the first quarter, jumping out 21-0 and never really looking back. The most impressive aspect, in addition to Brian Johnson's 300-yard passing day, for Utah was their total dominance defensively. While Alabama scored 17 points, their TDs came on a short field and on a punt return, neither on long, controlled drives. Now Tide fans are arguing (and rightly so) that they were handicapped by the suspension of star left tackle Andre Smith, possibly the best offensive lineman in the country and a key cog in the Alabama running attack. This certainly made things more difficult on the Alabama offense, but I'd hardly call this the difference in the game. Utah was dominant on both offense and defense, and clearly has made a case for being the #1 team in the country, finishing as the lone unbeaten.
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Next let's look at the Arizona Cardinals win over the Atlanta Falcons. As I patted myself on the back for the BCS bowl picks, I'll admit I was just 1 for 4 on the weekend in picking the NFL. The funny thing is, none of the results I was incorrect on were particularly surprising. First, the Cardinals win was one I missed, and I regretted this pick Saturday as I started watching the game. I can't believe I bought into the hype of a rookie quarterback being favored on the road. Not so smart. This isn't to say that Atlanta's Matt Ryan was the reason the Falcons lost. On the contrary, it was inspired play by the Cardinals defense, particularly their run defense, that was the stunner of this game. Just three weeks after being gashed by Adrian Peterson in a 35-14 home loss and two weeks after giving up over 200 yards rushing to the Pats on the road, the Cards used the crowd to fuel an impressive performance and shut down the league's #2 rusher. Michael Turner was stuck in his backfield all game, finding no room to run and even being in the middle of a Cardinals touchdown when he and Ryan were hit before they could even complete the exchange on a handoff. Maybe the Cardinals still aren't the better team, but they stepped up to the challenge while the Falcons failed to execute.
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The late game Saturday was brutal. Absolutely brutal. I'm a big Peyton Manning fan. Let's get that out in the air right now. I also have a more-than-slight dislike for the Chargers, considering that I'm a Broncos fan. That said, the Colts kind of gave this one away, and the Chargers can completely thank punter Mike Scifres for this victory. First, the Colts: where is your vaunted offense? Come on! Indianapolis failed to get any real productive drives going late in the game when they were protecting a 3-point lead. On their final possession, with just over two minutes left and a chance to seal a victory with a first down, the Colts managed to give up a sack. Maybe Peyton Manning isn't the one that struggles with the 3-4 defense; maybe it's the Indy offensive line and their coaches that are the problem. How a team missing its best pass rusher could get constant pressure on Manning AND shut down the Colts running game is beyond me. There's no doubt in my mind that the Colts' offensive struggles were the reason they ultimately lost, because their defense seemed like it was on the field the entire second half.
Second, Mike Scifres may have had the best day of any punter in NFL history. All six of his punts pinned the Colts inside their 20 yard line, and four of those put the Colts inside their own five. This includes the most crucial punt, pinning the Colts at their own 1 late in the fourth quarter when the Chargers were still trailing and needed to get the ball back with good field position to have a chance. An absolutely incredible performance.
Last point on this one, and I won't dwell on it because things like this usually come off sounding like sour grapes, but what game, exactly, were the officials watching? Seriously. How in the world could the Chargers only be flagged three times, and only once on offense, while the Colts were flagged three times on the Chargers' game-winning drive ALONE. Indy was penalized a total of nine times, to the aforementioned three against the Chargers. This cannot possibly be accurate, and may well have been the difference in the game. I don't necessarily ask that the refs keep the flags in their pocket all game, but at least TRY to call the game evenly, and maybe not throw the flag on close calls late in a tight game (like the crushing defensive holding on 3rd and 8 on San Diego's final drive).
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The Miami-Baltimore game is probably the one pick I most wish I had back. I had the feeling that this game would turn out exactly the way it did, but I hoped the Dolphins would prove me wrong. Yes, I said I thought that Chad Pennington would be the difference in the game, and I was right, in the wrong sense. Pennington struggled to deal with the constant pressure that Baltimore put on him, making poor throws and questionable decisions throughout the game. The reason for this was that the Ravens completely shut down the Dolphins' running game early on, and then they put together a lead that made the Phins have to pass to try and come back. This, of course, was the ultimate recipe for disaster. As good as Pennington and Miami's offense have been this year, they have never shown the ability to put up points quickly or in bunches, so any kind of a significant deficit (two scores or more) was likely to spell doom for the Dolphins. Indeed, I could well have called it game over as soon as Baltimore's Ed Reed made his first pick and took it back for a score. At this point, you just had to have the feeling that the Dolphins weren't going to be able to come from behind in that game, and quickly the mistakes and turnovers piled up and the game was out of reach.
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The game I got right! Yay! The Eagles-Vikings tilt was rather easy to call, and the only thing that might have changed the equation was if the Vikings had done the smart thing and played Gus Frerotte instead of Tarvaris Jackson. With the Vikings missing two starting defensive linemen, and Donovan McNabb playing extremely well toward the end of the season, the Vikings were behind the eight-ball to begin with. As good as Adrian Peterson is, he cannot carry the team if there is absolutely no threat of a passing game, which was the case for most of the game for Minnesota. The Eagles led early and the Asante Samuel TAINT (TD after INT; copyright Bill Simmons, ESPN.com) took the Metrodome crowd largely out of the game, something the Eagles had to do to really have a chance. In the end, after Brian Westbrook had successfully proven that he's the best receiving back in football with a 71-yard catch and run on a screen pass, Jackson was asked to win the game for the Vikings and this just wasn't going to happen. All told, the Eagles may be the "scary team" in the NFC playoffs this year, so maybe the Vikings were just victim #1.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Friday, January 2, 2009
NFL Wildcard Weekend: Whoyagot?
As I did with the BCS bowls, I'll just be going through the NFL playoff matchups and picking a winner and against the spread. The odds are found here. Amazingly, all four road teams are favored by oddsmakers (aka the betting public). How often does that happen in the playoffs?
Game 1 (Saturday, January 3rd, 3:30 CST):
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: The Falcons look like a dangerous team in the playoffs this year, with the kind of solid ball-control offense and strong defense we saw out of last year's Giants. The Cardinals looked like they got back on track a bit last weekend against a poor Seattle team. For Arizona to win this one, Kurt Warner is going to have to play like he did early in the season when the Cards still had something to play for. The Falcons need to control the ball and the clock and keep Warner and company on the sideline. This is a very tough game to pick because of how good the Cards can be when they're on, and how bad they can be when they're not.
The Pick: I'm going Falcons to win and cover. Rookie QB Matt Ryan and crew have been counted out time and time again, and they always show up big. Look for a huge day from Atlanta RB Michael Turner.
Game 2 (Saturday, January 3rd, 7:00 CST):
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
The Take: The Chargers are playing great ball offensively right now as they demonstrated last weekend in a rout of the Broncos. The Colts are on a 9-game winning streak and could be the hottest team playing this weekend. Here's the catch: the Chargers seem to be Peyton Manning's Krytonite. He never seems to be able to play well against San Diego in the playoffs, but then he's always had to face Shawn Merriman on that defense, and Merriman is out for the season. Plus, Manning is coming in knowing that he's won his third NFL MVP (announced Friday). One thing I know is that the atmosphere in San Diego will be electric Saturday night.
The Pick: I know I'm probably going to regret this, but I think the Colts pull this one out in a tight, tight game. It may even come down to a late Adam Vinatieri field goal, but I think the Colts win and cover.
Game 3 (Sunday, January 4th, 12:00 CST):
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Take: The Ravens have a great defense and a running game that few teams have been able to contain. The Dolphins have a great defense and a running game that few teams have been able to contain. The Ravens have a rookie QB (Joe Flacco). The Dolphins have a veteran QB that has played in the playoffs multiple times, winning several playoff games and winning comeback player of the year twice. If this game comes down to it, as much as I like the Ravens defense, I think Chad Pennington is the difference here (I never thought I'd write a sentence like that). Assuming this is a close, low-scoring game, I think the Dolphins to have just enough offense to win it.
The Pick: I'm sure both teams will have some more high school inspired offensive plays to unveil, which should make it fun to watch. I'm taking the Dolphins to win and cover in an upset here.
Game 4 (Sunday, January 4th, 3:30 CST):
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
The Take: This is an all-time battle of coaches that have a tendency to not know what's going on. If this one comes down to clock management, it will be a nightmare for the viewing public. Both Andy Reid (Eagles) and Brad Childress (Vikings) are well known for their failings in clock management and basic in-game decision-making, so this may like watching a chess match between two five-year-olds. Looking at the rosters, Philly appears to have the edge in experience, especially at the quarterback position with Donovan McNabb against Tarvaris Jackson. In terms of talent, I believe these teams are very much comparable, and this is a match of two of the league's top five running backs (Philly's Brian Westbrook and Minnesota's Adrian Peterson) who have two very different styles. Given the coach and QB situations in this one, if it comes down to one team needing a long drive late to win or tie, I don't have much faith that either offense will pull it off.
The Pick: This was another difficult choice, but I think I have to side with the betting public here and take the more experienced Eagles to pull off the win and cover on the road. I just can't ever see betting on the Brad Childress/Tarvaris Jackson combo.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Game 1 (Saturday, January 3rd, 3:30 CST):
Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Take: The Falcons look like a dangerous team in the playoffs this year, with the kind of solid ball-control offense and strong defense we saw out of last year's Giants. The Cardinals looked like they got back on track a bit last weekend against a poor Seattle team. For Arizona to win this one, Kurt Warner is going to have to play like he did early in the season when the Cards still had something to play for. The Falcons need to control the ball and the clock and keep Warner and company on the sideline. This is a very tough game to pick because of how good the Cards can be when they're on, and how bad they can be when they're not.
The Pick: I'm going Falcons to win and cover. Rookie QB Matt Ryan and crew have been counted out time and time again, and they always show up big. Look for a huge day from Atlanta RB Michael Turner.
Game 2 (Saturday, January 3rd, 7:00 CST):
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at San Diego Chargers
The Take: The Chargers are playing great ball offensively right now as they demonstrated last weekend in a rout of the Broncos. The Colts are on a 9-game winning streak and could be the hottest team playing this weekend. Here's the catch: the Chargers seem to be Peyton Manning's Krytonite. He never seems to be able to play well against San Diego in the playoffs, but then he's always had to face Shawn Merriman on that defense, and Merriman is out for the season. Plus, Manning is coming in knowing that he's won his third NFL MVP (announced Friday). One thing I know is that the atmosphere in San Diego will be electric Saturday night.
The Pick: I know I'm probably going to regret this, but I think the Colts pull this one out in a tight, tight game. It may even come down to a late Adam Vinatieri field goal, but I think the Colts win and cover.
Game 3 (Sunday, January 4th, 12:00 CST):
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Take: The Ravens have a great defense and a running game that few teams have been able to contain. The Dolphins have a great defense and a running game that few teams have been able to contain. The Ravens have a rookie QB (Joe Flacco). The Dolphins have a veteran QB that has played in the playoffs multiple times, winning several playoff games and winning comeback player of the year twice. If this game comes down to it, as much as I like the Ravens defense, I think Chad Pennington is the difference here (I never thought I'd write a sentence like that). Assuming this is a close, low-scoring game, I think the Dolphins to have just enough offense to win it.
The Pick: I'm sure both teams will have some more high school inspired offensive plays to unveil, which should make it fun to watch. I'm taking the Dolphins to win and cover in an upset here.
Game 4 (Sunday, January 4th, 3:30 CST):
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at Minnesota Vikings
The Take: This is an all-time battle of coaches that have a tendency to not know what's going on. If this one comes down to clock management, it will be a nightmare for the viewing public. Both Andy Reid (Eagles) and Brad Childress (Vikings) are well known for their failings in clock management and basic in-game decision-making, so this may like watching a chess match between two five-year-olds. Looking at the rosters, Philly appears to have the edge in experience, especially at the quarterback position with Donovan McNabb against Tarvaris Jackson. In terms of talent, I believe these teams are very much comparable, and this is a match of two of the league's top five running backs (Philly's Brian Westbrook and Minnesota's Adrian Peterson) who have two very different styles. Given the coach and QB situations in this one, if it comes down to one team needing a long drive late to win or tie, I don't have much faith that either offense will pull it off.
The Pick: This was another difficult choice, but I think I have to side with the betting public here and take the more experienced Eagles to pull off the win and cover on the road. I just can't ever see betting on the Brad Childress/Tarvaris Jackson combo.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
My Football Fanhood on the Line this Weekend
The reason we watch pro sports isn't just for a love of the game, it's because we all find rooting interests in certain teams. Sometimes you almost have to invent a rooting interest because your favorite teams aren't involved in the game, but it's rare that you'll ever watch a game and legitimately not care who wins. Sometimes you pick a team based on their colors or mascot, sometimes you pick a side because of a certain player that you like or dislike, or a coach, etc. In the end, we always find someone to root for because "rooting for a good game" just loses its appeal rather quickly.
I have a personal rooting interest in five NFL teams. I know that seems like a lot, but there's a very specific hierarchy for these teams (that I will get into in a later post) that dictates who I will root for when any of them meet. Suffice it to say my rooting interests fall in this order: Broncos, Texans, Vikings, Saints and Dolphins. Since I moved from Denver to Houston, the order of the top two is slowly shifting, but it's not quite there yet. It certainly doesn't help that I, like most other Broncos fans, am becoming jaded with the Broncos lack of playoff success and even playoff appearances since John Elway retired.
This weekend, four of my five teams play in games with significant playoff implications. In two of these games, my favored team is an underdog according to oddsmakers, and in the other two no line has been set because the games are too close to call. Let's take a look:
1. Denver Broncos (+9) at San Diego Chargers - This game should have been meaningless. The Broncos have had seemingly countless chances to wrap up this division once and for all, and failed at every turn. Now they are 9 point underdogs on the road with the playoffs on the line. Forgive me if I don't exactly have confidence that the Broncos will even cover, much less win. Prove me wrong, Broncos. Please prove me wrong.
2. Chicago Bears (No Line) at Houston Texans - While the Texans are officially out of the running and coming off an embarrassing loss at Oakland last week, they can help me out big time by beating the Bears. The Vikings need either a win (see below) or a Bears loss to clinch the NFC North, and while it looked like the Packers were going to pull it off last night, alas the stubborn Bears persevered and now we have this situation. Lousy Packers.
3. Minnesota Vikings (No Line) at New York Giants - Yes, the Giants have nothing to play for and yes, everything is on the line for the Vikings. But after the way the Giants played in last year's "meaningless" finale against the unbeaten Patriots, and the way it propelled the Giants into the playoffs on such a high note, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be playing all-out on Sunday. And that does not bode well for a Brad Childress-coached team with a penchant to choking.
4. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at New York Jets - The Dolphins are a great story, and usually stories like these end with success, but going on the road in bad weather against a division rival with the division title on the line sounds kind of scary. It could also be a fairy tale ending waiting to happen, but Vegas (i.e. the betting public) doesn't appear to see it that way. I've hated Brett Favre since his Packers faced my Broncos in the Super Bowl in 1998, but the least he can do for me is throw away one last game before wavering obnoxiously into the sunset. Please, Brett?
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
I have a personal rooting interest in five NFL teams. I know that seems like a lot, but there's a very specific hierarchy for these teams (that I will get into in a later post) that dictates who I will root for when any of them meet. Suffice it to say my rooting interests fall in this order: Broncos, Texans, Vikings, Saints and Dolphins. Since I moved from Denver to Houston, the order of the top two is slowly shifting, but it's not quite there yet. It certainly doesn't help that I, like most other Broncos fans, am becoming jaded with the Broncos lack of playoff success and even playoff appearances since John Elway retired.
This weekend, four of my five teams play in games with significant playoff implications. In two of these games, my favored team is an underdog according to oddsmakers, and in the other two no line has been set because the games are too close to call. Let's take a look:
1. Denver Broncos (+9) at San Diego Chargers - This game should have been meaningless. The Broncos have had seemingly countless chances to wrap up this division once and for all, and failed at every turn. Now they are 9 point underdogs on the road with the playoffs on the line. Forgive me if I don't exactly have confidence that the Broncos will even cover, much less win. Prove me wrong, Broncos. Please prove me wrong.
2. Chicago Bears (No Line) at Houston Texans - While the Texans are officially out of the running and coming off an embarrassing loss at Oakland last week, they can help me out big time by beating the Bears. The Vikings need either a win (see below) or a Bears loss to clinch the NFC North, and while it looked like the Packers were going to pull it off last night, alas the stubborn Bears persevered and now we have this situation. Lousy Packers.
3. Minnesota Vikings (No Line) at New York Giants - Yes, the Giants have nothing to play for and yes, everything is on the line for the Vikings. But after the way the Giants played in last year's "meaningless" finale against the unbeaten Patriots, and the way it propelled the Giants into the playoffs on such a high note, there is no doubt in my mind that they will be playing all-out on Sunday. And that does not bode well for a Brad Childress-coached team with a penchant to choking.
4. Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at New York Jets - The Dolphins are a great story, and usually stories like these end with success, but going on the road in bad weather against a division rival with the division title on the line sounds kind of scary. It could also be a fairy tale ending waiting to happen, but Vegas (i.e. the betting public) doesn't appear to see it that way. I've hated Brett Favre since his Packers faced my Broncos in the Super Bowl in 1998, but the least he can do for me is throw away one last game before wavering obnoxiously into the sunset. Please, Brett?
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Wha... what just ha-happened?
This is the question that a number of NFL teams have to be asking themselves today after questionable performances over the weekend. The big losers are a number of playoff hopefuls that held their postseason destinies in their own hands and failed to come through.
-Denver Broncos - Yes, they are my hometown team and thus my primary rooting interest, so they may be listed higher than they should. But consider what we're looking at here: the Broncos reached an 8-5 record with a stunning win over the highly-touted (at the time) New York Jets on the road. At this point Denver held a 3 game lead in the second-worst division in football (just ahead of the despicable NFC West) and looked like a virtual shoe-in for the playoffs. Two weeks later, the Broncos will be going on the road to face a suddenly hot Chargers team with the division title on the line. This after somehow blowing a home game to a Buffalo team that has been phoning it in for about 8 weeks. Ay carumba!
-Dallas Cowboys - Sure they got bailed out on Sunday by the collapse of two other teams on this list (see below), but the Cowboys simply didn't show up for their home finale (and the last game ever at Texas Stadium) against the Ravens when they controlled their own destiny. For a defense that many thought had turned the corner, that fourth-quarter performance was just dreadful.
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year, the Bucs stumbled into the playoffs in a weak division and coasted to another first-round loss with a sub-par performance against the eventual champion Giants. This year, the Bucs blasted out to a 9-3 record but have since lost 3 straight, including a game at home Sunday against a very mediocre San Diego team that could have helped not only the Bucs but the Broncos, too, and now the Bucs need help to make the playoffs. This team had no business laying an egg like this after the good fortune of Dallas losing on Saturday.
-Philadelphia Eagles - Against a team that is hard-pressed to score 10 points in a game, and with the benefit of knowing the Cowboys lost and they now controlled their own destiny, the Eagles offense sputtered (again) and came up short at Washington. Now Philly will have to beat the aforementioned Cowboys at home and get lots of help to make the playoffs. Not that a team this inconsistent has any business making the postseason.
-New York Jets - Wow. Just, like, wow. This team has completely fallen off the tracks and now looks like a mortal lock to miss the playoffs. I guess Packers fans can breathe easy (thanks to their old coach Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks, no less) that their old (figuratively and literally) QB will not be winning a Super Bowl for the wrong team this year. This Jets team is three JP Losman decisions away from riding a 4-game losing streak and sitting at 8-7 today.
-Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings get a slight pass for facing a playoff team in the Atlanta Falcons that had a lot to play for, too. That said, Adrian Peterson continues to come up small in big games (with three fumbles, two lost yesterday) and this team could have sealed their division at home yesterday. Now they have to hope the Bears blow it against the Pack tonight, or else it will come down to the final week.
-Pittsburgh Steelers/Carolina Panthers - Yes, they were both on the road playing against the best teams in their respective conferences, but considering what was on the line, these are huge missed opportunities for these teams. Now both will likely have to go on the road to rematch these games for the conference title, and they both have the knowledge that they've lost there already. The Steelers looked like the inferior team on Sunday against Tennessee, and they'll have their work cut out if this AFC title game comes to pass. The Panthers, on the other hand, had the game almost in hand but couldn't come up with a big offensive or defensive play late to pull it out. Regardless, the Giants and Titans have a lot of confidence going forward now.
-Arizona Cardinals - Yes, they've already clinched their exact playoff position, but COME ON! That was one of the worst played games I've seen all year. This team will be extremely lucky if it can win it's first round game, and their only chance is that it's at home. Talk about mailing it in after clinching. Good luck against the Falcons, guys!
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
-Denver Broncos - Yes, they are my hometown team and thus my primary rooting interest, so they may be listed higher than they should. But consider what we're looking at here: the Broncos reached an 8-5 record with a stunning win over the highly-touted (at the time) New York Jets on the road. At this point Denver held a 3 game lead in the second-worst division in football (just ahead of the despicable NFC West) and looked like a virtual shoe-in for the playoffs. Two weeks later, the Broncos will be going on the road to face a suddenly hot Chargers team with the division title on the line. This after somehow blowing a home game to a Buffalo team that has been phoning it in for about 8 weeks. Ay carumba!
-Dallas Cowboys - Sure they got bailed out on Sunday by the collapse of two other teams on this list (see below), but the Cowboys simply didn't show up for their home finale (and the last game ever at Texas Stadium) against the Ravens when they controlled their own destiny. For a defense that many thought had turned the corner, that fourth-quarter performance was just dreadful.
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Last year, the Bucs stumbled into the playoffs in a weak division and coasted to another first-round loss with a sub-par performance against the eventual champion Giants. This year, the Bucs blasted out to a 9-3 record but have since lost 3 straight, including a game at home Sunday against a very mediocre San Diego team that could have helped not only the Bucs but the Broncos, too, and now the Bucs need help to make the playoffs. This team had no business laying an egg like this after the good fortune of Dallas losing on Saturday.
-Philadelphia Eagles - Against a team that is hard-pressed to score 10 points in a game, and with the benefit of knowing the Cowboys lost and they now controlled their own destiny, the Eagles offense sputtered (again) and came up short at Washington. Now Philly will have to beat the aforementioned Cowboys at home and get lots of help to make the playoffs. Not that a team this inconsistent has any business making the postseason.
-New York Jets - Wow. Just, like, wow. This team has completely fallen off the tracks and now looks like a mortal lock to miss the playoffs. I guess Packers fans can breathe easy (thanks to their old coach Mike Holmgren and the Seahawks, no less) that their old (figuratively and literally) QB will not be winning a Super Bowl for the wrong team this year. This Jets team is three JP Losman decisions away from riding a 4-game losing streak and sitting at 8-7 today.
-Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings get a slight pass for facing a playoff team in the Atlanta Falcons that had a lot to play for, too. That said, Adrian Peterson continues to come up small in big games (with three fumbles, two lost yesterday) and this team could have sealed their division at home yesterday. Now they have to hope the Bears blow it against the Pack tonight, or else it will come down to the final week.
-Pittsburgh Steelers/Carolina Panthers - Yes, they were both on the road playing against the best teams in their respective conferences, but considering what was on the line, these are huge missed opportunities for these teams. Now both will likely have to go on the road to rematch these games for the conference title, and they both have the knowledge that they've lost there already. The Steelers looked like the inferior team on Sunday against Tennessee, and they'll have their work cut out if this AFC title game comes to pass. The Panthers, on the other hand, had the game almost in hand but couldn't come up with a big offensive or defensive play late to pull it out. Regardless, the Giants and Titans have a lot of confidence going forward now.
-Arizona Cardinals - Yes, they've already clinched their exact playoff position, but COME ON! That was one of the worst played games I've seen all year. This team will be extremely lucky if it can win it's first round game, and their only chance is that it's at home. Talk about mailing it in after clinching. Good luck against the Falcons, guys!
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
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