What's the Value of a Strong Farm System?

With less than two weeks before baseball's trade deadline, most of the talk in the sports world is about who will be buyers and who will be sellers in the trade market. To put it another way, who will concede defeat and try to get some younger prospects for their veterans, and who wants to forfeit some prospects for the chance to win this year. This leads me to wonder, though, if it's ever truly worth it to be a seller. Let's examine this a bit.

Quick, name me one team that's won the World Series in the last 10 years after being a seller. If you said the 2002 Florida Marlins, you're correct, but that franchise was terrible for years after it sold off its 1998 championship team. The fact is, while most teams never really come to fruition on the prospects' development, and often those players move on before the team has a chance to win, there are actually a few instances of young teams finding success. The Marlins are the only team that I can say took the approach of selling off its players for prospects and turned that into an actual championship, though.

Sure, you can argue that other small market teams such as the Twins, A's and last year's Diamondbacks and Rockies all have had success, at least making the postseason. But only the Rockies have played in the World Series (and you can make the argument that that was a bit of a fluke), not including the 2001 D-backs that won it all, because that was a BIG payroll team at the time. In fact, that team cost the Diamondbacks so much financially that they went into significant debt and that was basically the reason the team turned to the youth movement it currently enjoys.

Meanwhile, the Twins and A's, who have both made numerous postseason appearances in the last decade, have only won a combined 1 playoff series since the days of Kirby Puckett and The Bash Brothers (Jose Canseco and Mark McGuire in Oakland), and that was in 2006 when they faced off against each other in the first round. The A's swept the Twins then went on to lose to the Tigers in the ALCS.

Anyway, let's get back on topic here. To be a buyer or a seller. The teams mentioned above lead me to believe that being a seller on a regular basis is not likely to net you a title, or even a chance at the title. The flip side is the idea of being a buyer, giving up your prospects for the veterans to give you a chance to win now. The best example of a team like that is the New York Yankees.

Since their last World Series title in 2000, the Yankees have been the ultimate buyer in the MLB. They have routinely spent astronomical amounts of money on free agents in the offseason, and they have made numerous trades during the season to bring in veterans at the expense of their farm system (the latest example being the Bobby Abreu acquisition). This strategy has clearly not worked, in my opinion, despite the fact that they are in the postseason every year over that stretch. The Yanks have not won the title since 2000, and haven't even been in the Series since losing to the Marlins in 2002.

All this seems to lead me to one conclusion, and it may sound wishy-washy but it's the truth: teams need to be more in tune to when it's the right time to be a buyer or a seller, and be willing to take the chance accordingly. Largely, it appears that teams that make the big splash at the trade deadline are rarely the teams that go on to win the title. When was the last time a team made a major mid-season acquisition and won the championship that year? Um, I can't think of one. Teams are better off making the big moves in the offseason, because it's unlikely that one or two players can turn a decent team into a great team, and team chemistry and cohesion are major factors in winning a title. Recently, teams that have made big runs are the ones that bring up one of their big-time prospects to the Majors (see Jacoby Elsbury with the Red Sox in 2007, Miguel Cabrera with the Marlins in 2002).

On the other hand, teams would be well-advised to make the moves in the offseason when they have a chance. Where would the Red Sox be if they hadn't traded for Curt Schilling in 2003, or Josh Beckett in 2005? Would the Cardinals have won a World Series if they hadn't traded for Chris Carpenter? Who knows, but maybe the Twins or Rockies or A's win a title of they had used some of their minor league talent as bargaining chips to bring in proven players as opposed to using their veterans to fetch still more unproven prospects.

In the end, I think it's clear that a mixture of veteran players and talented youngsters are the key to postseason success, and this infatuation with minor league prospects makes Billy Beane look good, but eventually you have to take some chances and make a run. If you always build for the future, it may never come.

What do you think? Do Major League teams use their farm systems the way they should? Is there a right or a wrong way to use them?

Top Five Hitters in Baseball

Last night I went to the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers game at the horribly cramped and poorly air-conditioned Minute Maid Park, and witnessed Lance Berkman go 2-3 with a walk, double, home run, 2 runs and 2 RBI in the Astros 4-3 victory over their in-state rival. This impressive hitting performance got me to thinking: where does The Big Puma rank among MLB hitters? (By the way, isn't that the best nickname in sports right now, only slightly ahead of Jared "The Round Mound of Touchdown"/"The Hefty Lefty"/"J-Load" Lorenzen, now-former QB for the NY football Giants? But that's another list entirely.) Here we go, in classic drama-building reverse order:

Honorable Mention: Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - On the strength of this year alone (still batting .395 as of this morning), Jones deserves to make this list. And he's not just a one-year wonder; Jones has been a great hitter virtually his entire career in the majors. He's a rare number 1 overall draft pick that truly lived up to his potential, hitting not just for average but for consistent power over the years. Unfortunately, the guys ahead of him are just too good for him to sneak in.

5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - Based on this year alone, The Puma probably deserves to be higher than this, but his career numbers don't quite stack up to the others on here. Berkman is having a career year in both average and power numbers and it doesn't look like he'll be slowing down any time soon. If his careers stats were only a little better, he'd be a spot or two higher.

4. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies - As a Rockies fan, I'd love to put Holliday higher on this list but I simply can't because of his home/road splits that imply there may still be something to the Coors Field magic (although, honestly, who doesn't hit better at home?). Holliday is one of the most potent hitters in baseball nonetheless, and he hits for average and power and has shown himself capable of hitting very well in the clutch as he helped lead the Rockies to the World Series last year. Amazing how this guy is on the trading block.

3. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox - His power numbers are spectacular and have been his entire career. In the clutch, he and teammate David Ortiz may be the two most feared hitters in baseball. He can also hit for average, but as is often the case with the big swingers, his average isn't always consistently high and he's prone to slumps.

2. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals - It is oh so tempting to put A-Pu at #1, not only because of his phenomenal regular season accomplishments but for his postseason resume as well. Unfortunately, the man who may be the best hitter of this era has been plagued by injuries, many of which seem like just pure bad luck, and these have prevented him from dominating enough to win more than one MVP award. That said, he is the MLB's active batting average leader and is second in home runs, RBI and runs since he entered the league in 2001. Of course, he's second to...

1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - A-Rod has been a model of consistency and dominance in the regular season since he broke in with the Seattle Mariners in 1995 at age 18. The knock on him of lacking that "clutch" ability or "killer instinct" aside, Rodriguez has been the best player in baseball for many years and has put up absolutely staggering numbers, even when playing for the woeful Texas Rangers (although their park is commonly considered among the best hitters parks in baseball). A-Rod is a 3-time AL MVP and is likely to surpass the career home run totals of Hank Aaron and He Who Shall Not Be Named as long as he is able to stay even moderately healthy. No hitters in the game have to ability to hit for power and average at such a consistent clip which gives him the top spot in this list.