Showing posts with label Rockies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rockies. Show all posts

Friday, July 25, 2008

Top 5 Biggest Disappointments in Baseball

As we approach the trade deadline in Major League Baseball, the time has come to officially announce whether a team is a contender or a pretender. Along with this come the countless excuses and the calls by fans and the media for teams to blow up their rosters and build for next year, or the year after that, or the year after that…

Regardless, it’s time for labels and the one label all teams want to avoid is that of “underachiever.” The following are the five times that have most underachieved and failed to live up to lofty expectations. If your team currently resides in a West division, you may want to avert your eyes.

Honorable Mention #1: Washington Nationals (38-64) – No, the Nats weren’t expected to be contenders, and they knew as much coming in, but this is still embarrassing. Opening a brand-spanking new stadium and coming off a season where they actually flirted with .500 throughout, the Nats were hoping that this year might be the first step toward a promising future. Instead, the Nats are the worst team in their division by a wide margin and they’re only a half game out of dead last in the NL.

Honorable Mention #2: Los Angeles Dodgers (49-52) – Yes, they’re still “contenders,” but that’s only because they’re in the woeful NL West. The Dodgers believed that they had a solid-enough core of young talent and a handful of veterans that Joe Torre could mold into a playoff team. Instead, big-time acquisitions Andruw Jones and Jason Schmidt have been hurt and bad, and the team is staggering towards another sub-.500 season and watching the playoffs from home.

5. Toronto Blue Jays (51-51) – While the prognosticators didn’t jump on the Jays band wagon too much this past offseason, there was the usual buzz that this just might be the year the Jays finally break into the playoffs. Toronto had a good year last year and had the payroll to play with the big boys in the AL East, but things never really came together. Add very poor offensive performance (they still don’t have a player with 10 home runs) to a manager that got run out of town before the All-Star break, and you can see why this team once again rests at mediocrity, and out of the playoff hunt before August 1.

4. Seattle Mariners (38-63) – The Mariners easily could be higher on this list, but I give them a pass (to an extent) because of the fact that they haven’t been a playoff team in over 5 years and the expectations were probably too high. That said, this team made a run at the division last year with basically the same roster, and might have made the playoffs if not for a late-August into September collapse. In the offseason they made a big splash acquiring Eric Bedard from the Orioles, and had what many considered one of the top rotations in the AL. Unfortunately, injuries to Bedard and Jarrod Washburn blowing up have helped the Mariners reach the worst record in the AL and cost their manager his job before the break. But on the plus side, at least they finally got rid of Richie Sexton.

3. Colorado Rockies (45-58) – Yes, the Rockies were the NL Champions last year, but it was widely considered to be at least a bit of a fluke. Still, expectations were high, especially from Rockies fans such as myself, and hopes of a repeat were quite prevalent. The Rockies have struggled all season with their pitching, something that was a great strength in their late run in 2007. Also the team had trouble filling the void at second base left by Kaz Matsui’s departure to the Houston Astros. On top of that, offensive star Brad Hawpe failed to break .250 until July and second-year phenom Troy Tulowitzski spent two stints on the DL and is batting under .200 when healthy. All this has led to a highly unsatisfying season and while the Rockies can still sniff the division lead (6 games back right now), they aren’t exactly doing it in the toughest division.

2. San Diego Padres (38-65) – Hard to believe that the team that came 3 outs shy of the NL Wild Card in 2007 would have THE WORST RECORD IN BASEBALL, but that’s the case. The Padres, who last year survived on great pitching and timely hitting, have been lacking the latter and it’s killed them. Playing half of their games in the pitcher-friendly confines of PetCo Park, the Padres are 28th in the Majors in batting average and dead last in runs scored (just 3.7 per game). Expectations were definitely high for the team as it hadn’t lost any significant players from 2007 and the division, rightfully so, seemed ripe for the taking. Instead, the Pads are trying to figure out if they have any tradable pieces and hoping that maybe next year things will be better.

1. Cleveland Indians (44-56) – The Indians were a win away from the World Series in 2007, and they had 3 chances to get that win. Instead, the team blew a 3-1 series lead on the Red Sox in the ALCS and started looking to 2008. With virtually the entire roster from 2007 returning, the Indians were considered by many to be a World Series favorite, or at least a favorite to take on the Sox in the ALCS again. But the wheels came off early, and the team was never able to establish itself offensively. The man they expected to carry the offense, Travis Hafner, seems to have fallen off a cliff as his numbers have plummeted, although that started happening even last year. The pitching was great despite CC Sabathia’s slow start with Cliff Lee picking up the slack, but there just weren’t enough runs to go around. Amazing that things were so bad that Sabathia was dealt before the break, effectively signaling that the Indians had already thrown in the towel on such a promising season. Cleveland earns this spot because of just how high the expectations were, even though their record isn’t the worst.

So what do you think? Agree or disagree? Let’s hear it.

Friday, July 18, 2008

What's the Value of a Strong Farm System?

With less than two weeks before baseball's trade deadline, most of the talk in the sports world is about who will be buyers and who will be sellers in the trade market. To put it another way, who will concede defeat and try to get some younger prospects for their veterans, and who wants to forfeit some prospects for the chance to win this year. This leads me to wonder, though, if it's ever truly worth it to be a seller. Let's examine this a bit.

Quick, name me one team that's won the World Series in the last 10 years after being a seller. If you said the 2002 Florida Marlins, you're correct, but that franchise was terrible for years after it sold off its 1998 championship team. The fact is, while most teams never really come to fruition on the prospects' development, and often those players move on before the team has a chance to win, there are actually a few instances of young teams finding success. The Marlins are the only team that I can say took the approach of selling off its players for prospects and turned that into an actual championship, though.

Sure, you can argue that other small market teams such as the Twins, A's and last year's Diamondbacks and Rockies all have had success, at least making the postseason. But only the Rockies have played in the World Series (and you can make the argument that that was a bit of a fluke), not including the 2001 D-backs that won it all, because that was a BIG payroll team at the time. In fact, that team cost the Diamondbacks so much financially that they went into significant debt and that was basically the reason the team turned to the youth movement it currently enjoys.

Meanwhile, the Twins and A's, who have both made numerous postseason appearances in the last decade, have only won a combined 1 playoff series since the days of Kirby Puckett and The Bash Brothers (Jose Canseco and Mark McGuire in Oakland), and that was in 2006 when they faced off against each other in the first round. The A's swept the Twins then went on to lose to the Tigers in the ALCS.

Anyway, let's get back on topic here. To be a buyer or a seller. The teams mentioned above lead me to believe that being a seller on a regular basis is not likely to net you a title, or even a chance at the title. The flip side is the idea of being a buyer, giving up your prospects for the veterans to give you a chance to win now. The best example of a team like that is the New York Yankees.

Since their last World Series title in 2000, the Yankees have been the ultimate buyer in the MLB. They have routinely spent astronomical amounts of money on free agents in the offseason, and they have made numerous trades during the season to bring in veterans at the expense of their farm system (the latest example being the Bobby Abreu acquisition). This strategy has clearly not worked, in my opinion, despite the fact that they are in the postseason every year over that stretch. The Yanks have not won the title since 2000, and haven't even been in the Series since losing to the Marlins in 2002.

All this seems to lead me to one conclusion, and it may sound wishy-washy but it's the truth: teams need to be more in tune to when it's the right time to be a buyer or a seller, and be willing to take the chance accordingly. Largely, it appears that teams that make the big splash at the trade deadline are rarely the teams that go on to win the title. When was the last time a team made a major mid-season acquisition and won the championship that year? Um, I can't think of one. Teams are better off making the big moves in the offseason, because it's unlikely that one or two players can turn a decent team into a great team, and team chemistry and cohesion are major factors in winning a title. Recently, teams that have made big runs are the ones that bring up one of their big-time prospects to the Majors (see Jacoby Elsbury with the Red Sox in 2007, Miguel Cabrera with the Marlins in 2002).

On the other hand, teams would be well-advised to make the moves in the offseason when they have a chance. Where would the Red Sox be if they hadn't traded for Curt Schilling in 2003, or Josh Beckett in 2005? Would the Cardinals have won a World Series if they hadn't traded for Chris Carpenter? Who knows, but maybe the Twins or Rockies or A's win a title of they had used some of their minor league talent as bargaining chips to bring in proven players as opposed to using their veterans to fetch still more unproven prospects.

In the end, I think it's clear that a mixture of veteran players and talented youngsters are the key to postseason success, and this infatuation with minor league prospects makes Billy Beane look good, but eventually you have to take some chances and make a run. If you always build for the future, it may never come.

What do you think? Do Major League teams use their farm systems the way they should? Is there a right or a wrong way to use them?

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Some Baseball Thoughts for an Off-Day

So I've now had a full day to recover from Wednesday morning's All-Star game, and it's gotten me wondering a few things.

First and foremost, I start thinking about where that game ranks among the great sporting events I've seen this year. On the surface and looking at the box score, I'd be inclined to say that it could make a push for the top 5, and should definitely fit in the top 10. But then I think about the first 6 innings, and just how slow the game was and how the best players, the ones everyone really wanted to see, were on the bench as the game reached its dramatic climax. But I suppose that's the way baseball's showcase has always been. Makes me wonder if the game would be better in those late innings, particularly extra innings, if the starting position players could return to the field. Maybe then we wouldn't have Grady Sizemore, an All-Star reserve, getting five at bats in the game.

Is baseball's All-Star Game the best in sports? Given how little these exhibitions seem to mean anymore (did they ever mean that much?), it seems baseball is the one where you're most likely to find all the players trying their hardest. In basketball, it usually turns into a glorified streetball game/slam dunk contest within the first few minutes. In football, the players that don't come up with some "injury" to miss the game spend much of the game playing not to get hurt, and rules changes make the game different from any other game, a big negative in my book. In hockey, well, they're playing hockey. So yeah. But with baseball, it's all about the 1-on-1 matchups, and every pitch has serious pride on the line. No players want to risk the embarrassment of giving up a homer or striking out or making an error, something that's impossible to hide. Poor play in other ASG's is usually hidden because of the number of players involved in the action and the pace of play, but in baseball most players are out on an island and every error is magnified.

Is baseball's All-Star Game the best?

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What are the chances the Rockies make major changes this season? I've been saying for years that Clint Hurdle is nothing special as a manager and I think last year's Series run was the worst thing that could have happened for the franchise's future. Even as the team made its playoff push, Hurdle was more spectator than he was the reason it happened. Now, with the pressure of slightly more national media attention and the expectations that come with being the defending NL champions, the Rockies have been slightly better than horrible this year and are deluding themselves into thinking they're still alive in the pennant race because they're in the NL West. I think the seat will only get hotter for the Gum Chewer.

Another question seems to be getting more and more evident for my Rox: What do you do with Matt Holliday? His contract expires following next season, and his agent is the much-loathed Scott Boras, the man responsible for A-Rod's big contracts, among others. Boras has evidently made it clear to Rockies management that there will be no hometown discount for Holliday so if he's going to remain a Rockie, it'll cost them. And given the Monforts' (Rockies owners) history of tight spending, it seems almost assured that Holliday will land elsewhere. So the Rockies have three options as an organization:
  1. Trade Holliday before this month's trading deadline, a move that would likely get more teams into the running because he'd be available for all of 2009 for that team, not just for a pennant run this year. Considering the quality minor league talent the Indians got for CC Sabathia who is a legitimate "rental player," the Rox could hope for a major haul, ideally including a Major-League ready, or at least AAA, pitcher.
  2. Trade Holliday during this offseason like the Twins did last offseason with Johan Santana. This would give all the possible suitors a better idea of what their finances look like for 2009 and beyond, and could get the big spenders like Boston and the New York teams involved because they could potentially re-sign the slugger.
  3. Trade Holliday before the trade deadline in 2009. This move, to me, seems the riskiest as Holliday's value doesn't seem like it can get any higher than it's at right now. Waiting a full year allows for the possibility of a slump or an injury that could significantly change his trade value and cost the Rockies precious prospects. It also will mean that the acquiring team will only have Holliday for roughly 3-4 months of the season before having to worry about re-signing him, and my guess is Boras is going to use Alphonso Soriano's huge deal with the Cubs as a starting point in negotiations. So these teams will be reluctant to give up major prospects for a rental player.

I'd love to add a fourth option of "Re-sign the best player the team's developed since Todd Helton" but that really seems like an impossibility. Especially if the Rockies are out of contention this year and early next year. Holliday deserves a lot of credit for giving the Rockies even the three options I've just listed, as it's unlikely Boras would have agreed to a 2-year deal last offseason were it not insisted upon by Holliday.

Regardless of which option Rockies management chooses, one thing is clear: the Rocks will never be a dominant team in baseball over a long period. They just can't afford it.

So please tell me what you think they'll do. If your favorite team had to trade its best player, where would you be okay with him going?

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Random Ramblings on a Tuesday Morning

{NOTE: You no longer have to sign up to post comments on this blog. All comments will be reviewed prior to posting, but you do not need a google or gmail ID to post them. - Chris}

Yesterday when I posted my blog entry, around 9:30 a.m. central time, I had no idea that the topic I chose was going to become the theme of the day on ESPN. When I got home from work and flipped on "Pardon The Interruption" yesterday afternoon, I was amused to see the subject of "Best sporting event of 2008" as a message in their mailbag. Next thing I know, the same topic surfaces again in their final segment of the show, with hosts Bob Ryan and Michael Wilbon debating the merits of the Federer/Nadal match among the best events of the year. Neither agreed with me that the Super Bowl would be #1, but I'm not surprised as it's not nearly as fresh in our memory as Wimbledon or the U.S. Open.

Then hours later I tune in to SportsCenter to find that "Best sporting event of 2008" is a major topic, and in fact their poll question of the night was on that same topic. So what am I supposed to think? Of course they stole my idea. It's so obvious. So desperate are they for ideas, they have to steal them from lowly bloggers like myself. Shameful, really.

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It's July 8th, do you know where your baseball team is?

In my lifetime I have been most closely associated to two cities: Denver, Colorado where I grew up and near where I went to college (Go Rams!) and Houston, Texas where I and much of my family resides. So naturally my preferred baseball teams are the Rockies (38-52) and the Astros (41-49). It's not easy to admit that right about now.

Yes, it may be true that the struggles only add to the sweetness of success. I will admit that the Rox incredible playoff and World Series run last year was that much more enjoyable because I had stuck with the team through all the losing seasons that were over by August. But you know what, there's also something to be said for having a team that you always believe is in contention. Just ask Red Sox or Yankees fans if they'd prefer their teams were terrible for the next 5 years before becoming good for a brief championship run. I think we all know what they'd say.

So to be sitting here on July 8th, with my favorite team (the Rockies) 14 games below .500 (but only 6.5 games back in the division!) and my second favorite team 8 games below .500 and in dead last (behind the Pirates!) in their division, is a little depressing.

Only 12 days until the earliest NFL training camps start opening. Go Broncos and Texans...

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When is the right time for a sports team to officially decide to give up on a season and look towards the future? All 4 of the major sports in this country have a mid-season trading deadline (although that rarely affects anything in the NFL), but is this a good time to start thinking about rebuilding? Or should teams start earlier (see Cleveland Indians trading CC Sabathia) or hold on for a miracle run (see 2007 Rockies, 2005 Astros)?

Let me know what you think.

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Top Five Hitters in Baseball

Last night I went to the Houston Astros-Texas Rangers game at the horribly cramped and poorly air-conditioned Minute Maid Park, and witnessed Lance Berkman go 2-3 with a walk, double, home run, 2 runs and 2 RBI in the Astros 4-3 victory over their in-state rival. This impressive hitting performance got me to thinking: where does The Big Puma rank among MLB hitters? (By the way, isn't that the best nickname in sports right now, only slightly ahead of Jared "The Round Mound of Touchdown"/"The Hefty Lefty"/"J-Load" Lorenzen, now-former QB for the NY football Giants? But that's another list entirely.) Here we go, in classic drama-building reverse order:

Honorable Mention: Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves - On the strength of this year alone (still batting .395 as of this morning), Jones deserves to make this list. And he's not just a one-year wonder; Jones has been a great hitter virtually his entire career in the majors. He's a rare number 1 overall draft pick that truly lived up to his potential, hitting not just for average but for consistent power over the years. Unfortunately, the guys ahead of him are just too good for him to sneak in.

5. Lance Berkman, Houston Astros - Based on this year alone, The Puma probably deserves to be higher than this, but his career numbers don't quite stack up to the others on here. Berkman is having a career year in both average and power numbers and it doesn't look like he'll be slowing down any time soon. If his careers stats were only a little better, he'd be a spot or two higher.

4. Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies - As a Rockies fan, I'd love to put Holliday higher on this list but I simply can't because of his home/road splits that imply there may still be something to the Coors Field magic (although, honestly, who doesn't hit better at home?). Holliday is one of the most potent hitters in baseball nonetheless, and he hits for average and power and has shown himself capable of hitting very well in the clutch as he helped lead the Rockies to the World Series last year. Amazing how this guy is on the trading block.

3. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox - His power numbers are spectacular and have been his entire career. In the clutch, he and teammate David Ortiz may be the two most feared hitters in baseball. He can also hit for average, but as is often the case with the big swingers, his average isn't always consistently high and he's prone to slumps.

2. Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals - It is oh so tempting to put A-Pu at #1, not only because of his phenomenal regular season accomplishments but for his postseason resume as well. Unfortunately, the man who may be the best hitter of this era has been plagued by injuries, many of which seem like just pure bad luck, and these have prevented him from dominating enough to win more than one MVP award. That said, he is the MLB's active batting average leader and is second in home runs, RBI and runs since he entered the league in 2001. Of course, he's second to...

1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees - A-Rod has been a model of consistency and dominance in the regular season since he broke in with the Seattle Mariners in 1995 at age 18. The knock on him of lacking that "clutch" ability or "killer instinct" aside, Rodriguez has been the best player in baseball for many years and has put up absolutely staggering numbers, even when playing for the woeful Texas Rangers (although their park is commonly considered among the best hitters parks in baseball). A-Rod is a 3-time AL MVP and is likely to surpass the career home run totals of Hank Aaron and He Who Shall Not Be Named as long as he is able to stay even moderately healthy. No hitters in the game have to ability to hit for power and average at such a consistent clip which gives him the top spot in this list.