BCS Bowl Rundown

Check the odds to all the remaining bowl games here. Below are my predictions for the five BCS bowls. I'm not one of those writers that's foolish enough to think I can predict actual final scores, so I'll just give you the pick against the spread (for entertainment purposes only, of course).

The Rose Bowl Game (3:30 CST, January 1st)
USC (-9) vs. Penn State
The Take: Huge surprise, USC is back in the Rose Bowl. Again. This game is rather tough to pick because USC under Pete Carroll is beginning to be know as a team that will fail to show up in one or two meaningless games a year and accidentally lose. Is the Rose Bowl a meaningless game? Well, if you're the Trojans, a team that has played in this game for something like 12 years straight, maybe you start to wonder. Both of these teams had national championship aspirations this year and fell one win short of reaching that mark. Penn State's strength this year has been it's defense, but no defense has been better than USC's in all of college football. When it comes down to it, I just don't think the Nittany Lions can hang with the Trojans in this one.
The Pick: Trojans win and cover.

The Orange Bowl (7:00 CST, January 1st)
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech
The Take: This game alone demonstrates why the automatic bid system in the BCS is flawed. Neither of these teams would come close to qualifying for a BCS bowl under normal circumstances, but because they won weak BCS conferences, and because of the order of selection options* for the BCS bowls, this is what we get. I've only seen each of these teams play a couple of times, and neither really stood out. Both have solid defenses and offenses that can get on a roll, but aren't going to dominate from start to finish. This game has the feel of a 24-21 contest that comes down to a late field goal or a late turnover that decides it.
The Pick: Virginia Tech to win and cover in an "upset."

*Each BCS bowl has certain conference tie-ins that they may automatically choose from. After these choices, all bowls are given the option to choose whichever qualifying teams they wish. The Orange Bowl has a tie-in with the ACC (and thus took Virginia Tech). Each year the selection process for choosing at large participants rotates among the bowls, so no bowl gets first pick all the time. This year, the Orange Bowl was at the bottom of the list, and because of the way circumstances worked out, the Big East champion Cincinnati was left as an "at large," although they were guaranteed a spot. So when the Orange Bowl's selection occurred, they had no choice but to take the Bearcats because Cincinnati was assured a spot.

The Sugar Bowl (7:00 CST, January 2nd)
Alabama (-9.5) vs. Utah
The Take: Alabama could make an argument, however fruitless, that they deserve to play for the national title, but they didn't even win their conference. For the past 4+ years, the Mountain West has been the cream of the non-BCS crop and this is their second BCS buster in the last 4 seasons (Utah both times). The Utes could certainly make an argument, possibly even more compelling than Alabama's, that THEY should be playing for the title. Either way, both teams have a chip on their shoulder and a lot to prove. The weight of this game on Utah (they, more than anyone before them, are playing for all non-BCS schools' right to a shot at a title) could be too much to bare. While the Utes are a solid, even great, team (I still think Alex Smith's/Urban Meyer's Utah team four years ago was much better), they are physically overmatched and facing one of the top coaches in all of college football. I love the Mountain West (I graduated from a Mountain West school), but I just don't think the Utes have what it takes to pull it off.
The Pick: Alabama to win, Utah to cover (barely).

The Fiesta Bowl (7:00 CST, January 5th)
Texas (-8.5) vs. Ohio State
The Pick: The biggest question in this game is what will the Longhorns attitude be? Will they come in frustrated that they didn't get a title shot and feeling like they should be playing in an even better bowl (aka the BCS National Championship Game)? Or will they come in feeling that if they win and win BIG, maybe they can sway enough AP voters to pull off the first split national championship since USC took home the AP vote in 2003 (LSU won the BCS title that year). From the Buckeyes' standpoint, this has been a "down" year for them, with "just" 10 wins and "just" an at large BCS bid. That said, they still have one of the top coaches in the country (Texas' Mack Brown has the advantage in recruiting, I think Ohio State's Jim Tressel has the edge in x's and o's) and a lot of talent. Just not as much talent as Texas. Ohio State's best shot is to run, run, run with Chris "Beanie" Wells and try to keep Colt McCoy and that dazzling Texas offense off the field. Unfortunately, I really don't see that happening.
The Pick: Texas to win and cover (and then some).

The BCS National Championship Game (7:00 CST, January 8th)
Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma
The Take: Yes, Oklahoma is missing a starter on offense (tailback DeMarco Murray) and defense (tackle DeMarcus Granger). Yes, Heisman Trophy winners are 1-5 in national championship games. Yes, Bob Stoops has shown up small in his last several BCS bowl games. BUT, I still like the Sooners here, and here's why: Oklahoma can score. They can run (their "backup" Chris Brown rushed for over 1,000 yards) and pass (quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman, ya know) and Florida's defense, while it's been good this year, hasn't faced an offense like this all year. The Gator's offense is also extremely solid, but when the Sooners defense is motivated (see the Texas Tech game in November), it can cause a lot of problems. I see this game going one of two very similar ways: either the Sooners score early, jump out big and pull away early before the Gators come back and fall just short; or the Gators score early, jump out big and win in a landslide. After all the criticism he's taken in previous years, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Stoops has his guys ready this time, Oklahoma strikes early and often, and the Gators, despite valiant efforts, come up just short.
The Pick: Oklahoma to win in an upset and, of course, cover.

So what's your take?

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