The Texas Longhorns, likely the team most betrayed by the BCS system this year as they fell short of making the Big XII and National Championship games only because of the computers and formulas of the BCS, faced the Ohio State Buckeyes last night in yet another classic Fiesta Bowl. (How is it that the Fiesta Bowl seems to always get the best games year after year? This game, the infamous Oklahoma-Boise State game two years ago, the thrilling Miami-Ohio State national title game in 2002, etc.) Here are a few thoughts on the game and its ramifications.
Coming into the game, the Longhorns were an 8.5 point favorite (I took them to cover figuring they had much more to play for) and were looking to make a statement and argument for a portion of the title. Instead it took a late rally to survive the Buckeyes with a 24-21 win. Is this the statement they needed to make? Absolutely not. The Buckeyes showed much more than anyone outside of the greater Columbus area expected, but the fact that the Texas offense generated just 24 points after claiming all along that they were the best offense in the country was telling. Yes the Buckeyes had a strong defense all year, but there was little doubt that their defensive numbers were inflated, at least somewhat, by playing in the weak Big Ten conference. For Colt McCoy and crew to muster just 24 points (despite going over 400 yards offense) will be very damning, especially in the era of running up the score. Voters seem to be much more impressed by lopsided, poor-sportsmanship demonstrating blow-outs than they are quality games.
So how would my top five be shaping up right now? I'd have to put Texas in the number 5 spot, despite their 12-1 mark in the rough Big XII. At number 4, simply do to the fact that there are still tons of questions about how they'd do against the other top teams, I'd put the Utah Utes. Yes, they're the only unbeaten team and defeated four top-25 teams this year, but I still don't know that they'd beat any of the top 3 on a neutral field. At number 3 I'll go with the loser of the Oklahoma-Florida game on Thursday. Sure, that team will have 2 losses, but the teams that have defeated them (Texas for OU and a much stronger than expected Ole Miss team for Florida) are both top-10 caliber teams in my mind. Of course, this is assuming a close title game. A blowout and the loser drops to number 5 instantly.
At number 2 I'd have to put the USC Trojans. This team has the best defense I can remember seeing since I've started following college football. This squad is absolutely loaded with pro talent on both sides of the ball, and if not for a hiccup on a short week (remember, their loss against Oregon State was on a Thursday night and on the road), they'd probably be the clear #1. Obviously at number 1 will be the winner of the national championship game. As much as everyone likes to complain about how things have shaken out, I fully believe that both of these teams (OU and Florida) are as deserving of the title shot and the winner will have the best win on their resume in a postseason game of any of the top 5.
It's sad what college football has allowed itself to become: a beauty contest. (I'd say a popularity contest, but I think Texas is more popular than Oklahoma and yet the Longhorns got shafted worse than anyone else.) Teams are again expected to run up the score on inferior opponents (which also removes any motivation to schedule decent non-conference opponents because a close game hurts both teams) and causes poor sportsmanship to be accepted and even praised. Look at the Sooners this year: they mercilessly ran up the score against Missouri in the conference title game in order to get to the 60 point plateau for a record-setting fifth straight game, and they were roundly applauded for this lack of class. If the conference commissioners truly believe that constant criticism and venom toward their sport is good for the game, then by all means they should continue the BCS system. If not... well, I guess the "if not" is never going to happen.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Showing posts with label college football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label college football. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Monday, January 5, 2009
The Weekend That Was
Starting with Friday night's Utah-Alabama game, we were treated to some very good football games over the weekend and there were a lot interesting happenings in these matchups. Perhaps this wasn't an abnormally strong weekend of football, being that none of the games stood out as all-time greats, but we got a good collection of close games on Friday and Saturday and two dominant performances on Sunday.
Let's start with Friday night's Sugar Bowl. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm three for three against the spread in the BCS bowls so far, but I was wrong on the winner in this one. As a Mountain West graduate and fan, I was optimistic that the Utes would be able to at least keep the game close against an Alabama team that I believed was physically superior. Instead it was the Utah team imposing its will on the Crimson Tide in the first quarter, jumping out 21-0 and never really looking back. The most impressive aspect, in addition to Brian Johnson's 300-yard passing day, for Utah was their total dominance defensively. While Alabama scored 17 points, their TDs came on a short field and on a punt return, neither on long, controlled drives. Now Tide fans are arguing (and rightly so) that they were handicapped by the suspension of star left tackle Andre Smith, possibly the best offensive lineman in the country and a key cog in the Alabama running attack. This certainly made things more difficult on the Alabama offense, but I'd hardly call this the difference in the game. Utah was dominant on both offense and defense, and clearly has made a case for being the #1 team in the country, finishing as the lone unbeaten.
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Next let's look at the Arizona Cardinals win over the Atlanta Falcons. As I patted myself on the back for the BCS bowl picks, I'll admit I was just 1 for 4 on the weekend in picking the NFL. The funny thing is, none of the results I was incorrect on were particularly surprising. First, the Cardinals win was one I missed, and I regretted this pick Saturday as I started watching the game. I can't believe I bought into the hype of a rookie quarterback being favored on the road. Not so smart. This isn't to say that Atlanta's Matt Ryan was the reason the Falcons lost. On the contrary, it was inspired play by the Cardinals defense, particularly their run defense, that was the stunner of this game. Just three weeks after being gashed by Adrian Peterson in a 35-14 home loss and two weeks after giving up over 200 yards rushing to the Pats on the road, the Cards used the crowd to fuel an impressive performance and shut down the league's #2 rusher. Michael Turner was stuck in his backfield all game, finding no room to run and even being in the middle of a Cardinals touchdown when he and Ryan were hit before they could even complete the exchange on a handoff. Maybe the Cardinals still aren't the better team, but they stepped up to the challenge while the Falcons failed to execute.
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The late game Saturday was brutal. Absolutely brutal. I'm a big Peyton Manning fan. Let's get that out in the air right now. I also have a more-than-slight dislike for the Chargers, considering that I'm a Broncos fan. That said, the Colts kind of gave this one away, and the Chargers can completely thank punter Mike Scifres for this victory. First, the Colts: where is your vaunted offense? Come on! Indianapolis failed to get any real productive drives going late in the game when they were protecting a 3-point lead. On their final possession, with just over two minutes left and a chance to seal a victory with a first down, the Colts managed to give up a sack. Maybe Peyton Manning isn't the one that struggles with the 3-4 defense; maybe it's the Indy offensive line and their coaches that are the problem. How a team missing its best pass rusher could get constant pressure on Manning AND shut down the Colts running game is beyond me. There's no doubt in my mind that the Colts' offensive struggles were the reason they ultimately lost, because their defense seemed like it was on the field the entire second half.
Second, Mike Scifres may have had the best day of any punter in NFL history. All six of his punts pinned the Colts inside their 20 yard line, and four of those put the Colts inside their own five. This includes the most crucial punt, pinning the Colts at their own 1 late in the fourth quarter when the Chargers were still trailing and needed to get the ball back with good field position to have a chance. An absolutely incredible performance.
Last point on this one, and I won't dwell on it because things like this usually come off sounding like sour grapes, but what game, exactly, were the officials watching? Seriously. How in the world could the Chargers only be flagged three times, and only once on offense, while the Colts were flagged three times on the Chargers' game-winning drive ALONE. Indy was penalized a total of nine times, to the aforementioned three against the Chargers. This cannot possibly be accurate, and may well have been the difference in the game. I don't necessarily ask that the refs keep the flags in their pocket all game, but at least TRY to call the game evenly, and maybe not throw the flag on close calls late in a tight game (like the crushing defensive holding on 3rd and 8 on San Diego's final drive).
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The Miami-Baltimore game is probably the one pick I most wish I had back. I had the feeling that this game would turn out exactly the way it did, but I hoped the Dolphins would prove me wrong. Yes, I said I thought that Chad Pennington would be the difference in the game, and I was right, in the wrong sense. Pennington struggled to deal with the constant pressure that Baltimore put on him, making poor throws and questionable decisions throughout the game. The reason for this was that the Ravens completely shut down the Dolphins' running game early on, and then they put together a lead that made the Phins have to pass to try and come back. This, of course, was the ultimate recipe for disaster. As good as Pennington and Miami's offense have been this year, they have never shown the ability to put up points quickly or in bunches, so any kind of a significant deficit (two scores or more) was likely to spell doom for the Dolphins. Indeed, I could well have called it game over as soon as Baltimore's Ed Reed made his first pick and took it back for a score. At this point, you just had to have the feeling that the Dolphins weren't going to be able to come from behind in that game, and quickly the mistakes and turnovers piled up and the game was out of reach.
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The game I got right! Yay! The Eagles-Vikings tilt was rather easy to call, and the only thing that might have changed the equation was if the Vikings had done the smart thing and played Gus Frerotte instead of Tarvaris Jackson. With the Vikings missing two starting defensive linemen, and Donovan McNabb playing extremely well toward the end of the season, the Vikings were behind the eight-ball to begin with. As good as Adrian Peterson is, he cannot carry the team if there is absolutely no threat of a passing game, which was the case for most of the game for Minnesota. The Eagles led early and the Asante Samuel TAINT (TD after INT; copyright Bill Simmons, ESPN.com) took the Metrodome crowd largely out of the game, something the Eagles had to do to really have a chance. In the end, after Brian Westbrook had successfully proven that he's the best receiving back in football with a 71-yard catch and run on a screen pass, Jackson was asked to win the game for the Vikings and this just wasn't going to happen. All told, the Eagles may be the "scary team" in the NFC playoffs this year, so maybe the Vikings were just victim #1.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Let's start with Friday night's Sugar Bowl. Not to toot my own horn, but I'm three for three against the spread in the BCS bowls so far, but I was wrong on the winner in this one. As a Mountain West graduate and fan, I was optimistic that the Utes would be able to at least keep the game close against an Alabama team that I believed was physically superior. Instead it was the Utah team imposing its will on the Crimson Tide in the first quarter, jumping out 21-0 and never really looking back. The most impressive aspect, in addition to Brian Johnson's 300-yard passing day, for Utah was their total dominance defensively. While Alabama scored 17 points, their TDs came on a short field and on a punt return, neither on long, controlled drives. Now Tide fans are arguing (and rightly so) that they were handicapped by the suspension of star left tackle Andre Smith, possibly the best offensive lineman in the country and a key cog in the Alabama running attack. This certainly made things more difficult on the Alabama offense, but I'd hardly call this the difference in the game. Utah was dominant on both offense and defense, and clearly has made a case for being the #1 team in the country, finishing as the lone unbeaten.
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Next let's look at the Arizona Cardinals win over the Atlanta Falcons. As I patted myself on the back for the BCS bowl picks, I'll admit I was just 1 for 4 on the weekend in picking the NFL. The funny thing is, none of the results I was incorrect on were particularly surprising. First, the Cardinals win was one I missed, and I regretted this pick Saturday as I started watching the game. I can't believe I bought into the hype of a rookie quarterback being favored on the road. Not so smart. This isn't to say that Atlanta's Matt Ryan was the reason the Falcons lost. On the contrary, it was inspired play by the Cardinals defense, particularly their run defense, that was the stunner of this game. Just three weeks after being gashed by Adrian Peterson in a 35-14 home loss and two weeks after giving up over 200 yards rushing to the Pats on the road, the Cards used the crowd to fuel an impressive performance and shut down the league's #2 rusher. Michael Turner was stuck in his backfield all game, finding no room to run and even being in the middle of a Cardinals touchdown when he and Ryan were hit before they could even complete the exchange on a handoff. Maybe the Cardinals still aren't the better team, but they stepped up to the challenge while the Falcons failed to execute.
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The late game Saturday was brutal. Absolutely brutal. I'm a big Peyton Manning fan. Let's get that out in the air right now. I also have a more-than-slight dislike for the Chargers, considering that I'm a Broncos fan. That said, the Colts kind of gave this one away, and the Chargers can completely thank punter Mike Scifres for this victory. First, the Colts: where is your vaunted offense? Come on! Indianapolis failed to get any real productive drives going late in the game when they were protecting a 3-point lead. On their final possession, with just over two minutes left and a chance to seal a victory with a first down, the Colts managed to give up a sack. Maybe Peyton Manning isn't the one that struggles with the 3-4 defense; maybe it's the Indy offensive line and their coaches that are the problem. How a team missing its best pass rusher could get constant pressure on Manning AND shut down the Colts running game is beyond me. There's no doubt in my mind that the Colts' offensive struggles were the reason they ultimately lost, because their defense seemed like it was on the field the entire second half.
Second, Mike Scifres may have had the best day of any punter in NFL history. All six of his punts pinned the Colts inside their 20 yard line, and four of those put the Colts inside their own five. This includes the most crucial punt, pinning the Colts at their own 1 late in the fourth quarter when the Chargers were still trailing and needed to get the ball back with good field position to have a chance. An absolutely incredible performance.
Last point on this one, and I won't dwell on it because things like this usually come off sounding like sour grapes, but what game, exactly, were the officials watching? Seriously. How in the world could the Chargers only be flagged three times, and only once on offense, while the Colts were flagged three times on the Chargers' game-winning drive ALONE. Indy was penalized a total of nine times, to the aforementioned three against the Chargers. This cannot possibly be accurate, and may well have been the difference in the game. I don't necessarily ask that the refs keep the flags in their pocket all game, but at least TRY to call the game evenly, and maybe not throw the flag on close calls late in a tight game (like the crushing defensive holding on 3rd and 8 on San Diego's final drive).
###
The Miami-Baltimore game is probably the one pick I most wish I had back. I had the feeling that this game would turn out exactly the way it did, but I hoped the Dolphins would prove me wrong. Yes, I said I thought that Chad Pennington would be the difference in the game, and I was right, in the wrong sense. Pennington struggled to deal with the constant pressure that Baltimore put on him, making poor throws and questionable decisions throughout the game. The reason for this was that the Ravens completely shut down the Dolphins' running game early on, and then they put together a lead that made the Phins have to pass to try and come back. This, of course, was the ultimate recipe for disaster. As good as Pennington and Miami's offense have been this year, they have never shown the ability to put up points quickly or in bunches, so any kind of a significant deficit (two scores or more) was likely to spell doom for the Dolphins. Indeed, I could well have called it game over as soon as Baltimore's Ed Reed made his first pick and took it back for a score. At this point, you just had to have the feeling that the Dolphins weren't going to be able to come from behind in that game, and quickly the mistakes and turnovers piled up and the game was out of reach.
###
The game I got right! Yay! The Eagles-Vikings tilt was rather easy to call, and the only thing that might have changed the equation was if the Vikings had done the smart thing and played Gus Frerotte instead of Tarvaris Jackson. With the Vikings missing two starting defensive linemen, and Donovan McNabb playing extremely well toward the end of the season, the Vikings were behind the eight-ball to begin with. As good as Adrian Peterson is, he cannot carry the team if there is absolutely no threat of a passing game, which was the case for most of the game for Minnesota. The Eagles led early and the Asante Samuel TAINT (TD after INT; copyright Bill Simmons, ESPN.com) took the Metrodome crowd largely out of the game, something the Eagles had to do to really have a chance. In the end, after Brian Westbrook had successfully proven that he's the best receiving back in football with a 71-yard catch and run on a screen pass, Jackson was asked to win the game for the Vikings and this just wasn't going to happen. All told, the Eagles may be the "scary team" in the NFC playoffs this year, so maybe the Vikings were just victim #1.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
BCS Bowl Rundown
Check the odds to all the remaining bowl games here. Below are my predictions for the five BCS bowls. I'm not one of those writers that's foolish enough to think I can predict actual final scores, so I'll just give you the pick against the spread (for entertainment purposes only, of course).
The Rose Bowl Game (3:30 CST, January 1st)
USC (-9) vs. Penn State
The Take: Huge surprise, USC is back in the Rose Bowl. Again. This game is rather tough to pick because USC under Pete Carroll is beginning to be know as a team that will fail to show up in one or two meaningless games a year and accidentally lose. Is the Rose Bowl a meaningless game? Well, if you're the Trojans, a team that has played in this game for something like 12 years straight, maybe you start to wonder. Both of these teams had national championship aspirations this year and fell one win short of reaching that mark. Penn State's strength this year has been it's defense, but no defense has been better than USC's in all of college football. When it comes down to it, I just don't think the Nittany Lions can hang with the Trojans in this one.
The Pick: Trojans win and cover.
The Orange Bowl (7:00 CST, January 1st)
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech
The Take: This game alone demonstrates why the automatic bid system in the BCS is flawed. Neither of these teams would come close to qualifying for a BCS bowl under normal circumstances, but because they won weak BCS conferences, and because of the order of selection options* for the BCS bowls, this is what we get. I've only seen each of these teams play a couple of times, and neither really stood out. Both have solid defenses and offenses that can get on a roll, but aren't going to dominate from start to finish. This game has the feel of a 24-21 contest that comes down to a late field goal or a late turnover that decides it.
The Pick: Virginia Tech to win and cover in an "upset."
*Each BCS bowl has certain conference tie-ins that they may automatically choose from. After these choices, all bowls are given the option to choose whichever qualifying teams they wish. The Orange Bowl has a tie-in with the ACC (and thus took Virginia Tech). Each year the selection process for choosing at large participants rotates among the bowls, so no bowl gets first pick all the time. This year, the Orange Bowl was at the bottom of the list, and because of the way circumstances worked out, the Big East champion Cincinnati was left as an "at large," although they were guaranteed a spot. So when the Orange Bowl's selection occurred, they had no choice but to take the Bearcats because Cincinnati was assured a spot.
The Sugar Bowl (7:00 CST, January 2nd)
Alabama (-9.5) vs. Utah
The Take: Alabama could make an argument, however fruitless, that they deserve to play for the national title, but they didn't even win their conference. For the past 4+ years, the Mountain West has been the cream of the non-BCS crop and this is their second BCS buster in the last 4 seasons (Utah both times). The Utes could certainly make an argument, possibly even more compelling than Alabama's, that THEY should be playing for the title. Either way, both teams have a chip on their shoulder and a lot to prove. The weight of this game on Utah (they, more than anyone before them, are playing for all non-BCS schools' right to a shot at a title) could be too much to bare. While the Utes are a solid, even great, team (I still think Alex Smith's/Urban Meyer's Utah team four years ago was much better), they are physically overmatched and facing one of the top coaches in all of college football. I love the Mountain West (I graduated from a Mountain West school), but I just don't think the Utes have what it takes to pull it off.
The Pick: Alabama to win, Utah to cover (barely).
The Fiesta Bowl (7:00 CST, January 5th)
Texas (-8.5) vs. Ohio State
The Pick: The biggest question in this game is what will the Longhorns attitude be? Will they come in frustrated that they didn't get a title shot and feeling like they should be playing in an even better bowl (aka the BCS National Championship Game)? Or will they come in feeling that if they win and win BIG, maybe they can sway enough AP voters to pull off the first split national championship since USC took home the AP vote in 2003 (LSU won the BCS title that year). From the Buckeyes' standpoint, this has been a "down" year for them, with "just" 10 wins and "just" an at large BCS bid. That said, they still have one of the top coaches in the country (Texas' Mack Brown has the advantage in recruiting, I think Ohio State's Jim Tressel has the edge in x's and o's) and a lot of talent. Just not as much talent as Texas. Ohio State's best shot is to run, run, run with Chris "Beanie" Wells and try to keep Colt McCoy and that dazzling Texas offense off the field. Unfortunately, I really don't see that happening.
The Pick: Texas to win and cover (and then some).
The BCS National Championship Game (7:00 CST, January 8th)
Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma
The Take: Yes, Oklahoma is missing a starter on offense (tailback DeMarco Murray) and defense (tackle DeMarcus Granger). Yes, Heisman Trophy winners are 1-5 in national championship games. Yes, Bob Stoops has shown up small in his last several BCS bowl games. BUT, I still like the Sooners here, and here's why: Oklahoma can score. They can run (their "backup" Chris Brown rushed for over 1,000 yards) and pass (quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman, ya know) and Florida's defense, while it's been good this year, hasn't faced an offense like this all year. The Gator's offense is also extremely solid, but when the Sooners defense is motivated (see the Texas Tech game in November), it can cause a lot of problems. I see this game going one of two very similar ways: either the Sooners score early, jump out big and pull away early before the Gators come back and fall just short; or the Gators score early, jump out big and win in a landslide. After all the criticism he's taken in previous years, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Stoops has his guys ready this time, Oklahoma strikes early and often, and the Gators, despite valiant efforts, come up just short.
The Pick: Oklahoma to win in an upset and, of course, cover.
So what's your take?
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
The Rose Bowl Game (3:30 CST, January 1st)
USC (-9) vs. Penn State
The Take: Huge surprise, USC is back in the Rose Bowl. Again. This game is rather tough to pick because USC under Pete Carroll is beginning to be know as a team that will fail to show up in one or two meaningless games a year and accidentally lose. Is the Rose Bowl a meaningless game? Well, if you're the Trojans, a team that has played in this game for something like 12 years straight, maybe you start to wonder. Both of these teams had national championship aspirations this year and fell one win short of reaching that mark. Penn State's strength this year has been it's defense, but no defense has been better than USC's in all of college football. When it comes down to it, I just don't think the Nittany Lions can hang with the Trojans in this one.
The Pick: Trojans win and cover.
The Orange Bowl (7:00 CST, January 1st)
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech
The Take: This game alone demonstrates why the automatic bid system in the BCS is flawed. Neither of these teams would come close to qualifying for a BCS bowl under normal circumstances, but because they won weak BCS conferences, and because of the order of selection options* for the BCS bowls, this is what we get. I've only seen each of these teams play a couple of times, and neither really stood out. Both have solid defenses and offenses that can get on a roll, but aren't going to dominate from start to finish. This game has the feel of a 24-21 contest that comes down to a late field goal or a late turnover that decides it.
The Pick: Virginia Tech to win and cover in an "upset."
*Each BCS bowl has certain conference tie-ins that they may automatically choose from. After these choices, all bowls are given the option to choose whichever qualifying teams they wish. The Orange Bowl has a tie-in with the ACC (and thus took Virginia Tech). Each year the selection process for choosing at large participants rotates among the bowls, so no bowl gets first pick all the time. This year, the Orange Bowl was at the bottom of the list, and because of the way circumstances worked out, the Big East champion Cincinnati was left as an "at large," although they were guaranteed a spot. So when the Orange Bowl's selection occurred, they had no choice but to take the Bearcats because Cincinnati was assured a spot.
The Sugar Bowl (7:00 CST, January 2nd)
Alabama (-9.5) vs. Utah
The Take: Alabama could make an argument, however fruitless, that they deserve to play for the national title, but they didn't even win their conference. For the past 4+ years, the Mountain West has been the cream of the non-BCS crop and this is their second BCS buster in the last 4 seasons (Utah both times). The Utes could certainly make an argument, possibly even more compelling than Alabama's, that THEY should be playing for the title. Either way, both teams have a chip on their shoulder and a lot to prove. The weight of this game on Utah (they, more than anyone before them, are playing for all non-BCS schools' right to a shot at a title) could be too much to bare. While the Utes are a solid, even great, team (I still think Alex Smith's/Urban Meyer's Utah team four years ago was much better), they are physically overmatched and facing one of the top coaches in all of college football. I love the Mountain West (I graduated from a Mountain West school), but I just don't think the Utes have what it takes to pull it off.
The Pick: Alabama to win, Utah to cover (barely).
The Fiesta Bowl (7:00 CST, January 5th)
Texas (-8.5) vs. Ohio State
The Pick: The biggest question in this game is what will the Longhorns attitude be? Will they come in frustrated that they didn't get a title shot and feeling like they should be playing in an even better bowl (aka the BCS National Championship Game)? Or will they come in feeling that if they win and win BIG, maybe they can sway enough AP voters to pull off the first split national championship since USC took home the AP vote in 2003 (LSU won the BCS title that year). From the Buckeyes' standpoint, this has been a "down" year for them, with "just" 10 wins and "just" an at large BCS bid. That said, they still have one of the top coaches in the country (Texas' Mack Brown has the advantage in recruiting, I think Ohio State's Jim Tressel has the edge in x's and o's) and a lot of talent. Just not as much talent as Texas. Ohio State's best shot is to run, run, run with Chris "Beanie" Wells and try to keep Colt McCoy and that dazzling Texas offense off the field. Unfortunately, I really don't see that happening.
The Pick: Texas to win and cover (and then some).
The BCS National Championship Game (7:00 CST, January 8th)
Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma
The Take: Yes, Oklahoma is missing a starter on offense (tailback DeMarco Murray) and defense (tackle DeMarcus Granger). Yes, Heisman Trophy winners are 1-5 in national championship games. Yes, Bob Stoops has shown up small in his last several BCS bowl games. BUT, I still like the Sooners here, and here's why: Oklahoma can score. They can run (their "backup" Chris Brown rushed for over 1,000 yards) and pass (quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman, ya know) and Florida's defense, while it's been good this year, hasn't faced an offense like this all year. The Gator's offense is also extremely solid, but when the Sooners defense is motivated (see the Texas Tech game in November), it can cause a lot of problems. I see this game going one of two very similar ways: either the Sooners score early, jump out big and pull away early before the Gators come back and fall just short; or the Gators score early, jump out big and win in a landslide. After all the criticism he's taken in previous years, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Stoops has his guys ready this time, Oklahoma strikes early and often, and the Gators, despite valiant efforts, come up just short.
The Pick: Oklahoma to win in an upset and, of course, cover.
So what's your take?
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
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