Check the odds to all the remaining bowl games here. Below are my predictions for the five BCS bowls. I'm not one of those writers that's foolish enough to think I can predict actual final scores, so I'll just give you the pick against the spread (for entertainment purposes only, of course).
The Rose Bowl Game (3:30 CST, January 1st)
USC (-9) vs. Penn State
The Take: Huge surprise, USC is back in the Rose Bowl. Again. This game is rather tough to pick because USC under Pete Carroll is beginning to be know as a team that will fail to show up in one or two meaningless games a year and accidentally lose. Is the Rose Bowl a meaningless game? Well, if you're the Trojans, a team that has played in this game for something like 12 years straight, maybe you start to wonder. Both of these teams had national championship aspirations this year and fell one win short of reaching that mark. Penn State's strength this year has been it's defense, but no defense has been better than USC's in all of college football. When it comes down to it, I just don't think the Nittany Lions can hang with the Trojans in this one.
The Pick: Trojans win and cover.
The Orange Bowl (7:00 CST, January 1st)
Cincinnati (-2.5) vs. Virginia Tech
The Take: This game alone demonstrates why the automatic bid system in the BCS is flawed. Neither of these teams would come close to qualifying for a BCS bowl under normal circumstances, but because they won weak BCS conferences, and because of the order of selection options* for the BCS bowls, this is what we get. I've only seen each of these teams play a couple of times, and neither really stood out. Both have solid defenses and offenses that can get on a roll, but aren't going to dominate from start to finish. This game has the feel of a 24-21 contest that comes down to a late field goal or a late turnover that decides it.
The Pick: Virginia Tech to win and cover in an "upset."
*Each BCS bowl has certain conference tie-ins that they may automatically choose from. After these choices, all bowls are given the option to choose whichever qualifying teams they wish. The Orange Bowl has a tie-in with the ACC (and thus took Virginia Tech). Each year the selection process for choosing at large participants rotates among the bowls, so no bowl gets first pick all the time. This year, the Orange Bowl was at the bottom of the list, and because of the way circumstances worked out, the Big East champion Cincinnati was left as an "at large," although they were guaranteed a spot. So when the Orange Bowl's selection occurred, they had no choice but to take the Bearcats because Cincinnati was assured a spot.
The Sugar Bowl (7:00 CST, January 2nd)
Alabama (-9.5) vs. Utah
The Take: Alabama could make an argument, however fruitless, that they deserve to play for the national title, but they didn't even win their conference. For the past 4+ years, the Mountain West has been the cream of the non-BCS crop and this is their second BCS buster in the last 4 seasons (Utah both times). The Utes could certainly make an argument, possibly even more compelling than Alabama's, that THEY should be playing for the title. Either way, both teams have a chip on their shoulder and a lot to prove. The weight of this game on Utah (they, more than anyone before them, are playing for all non-BCS schools' right to a shot at a title) could be too much to bare. While the Utes are a solid, even great, team (I still think Alex Smith's/Urban Meyer's Utah team four years ago was much better), they are physically overmatched and facing one of the top coaches in all of college football. I love the Mountain West (I graduated from a Mountain West school), but I just don't think the Utes have what it takes to pull it off.
The Pick: Alabama to win, Utah to cover (barely).
The Fiesta Bowl (7:00 CST, January 5th)
Texas (-8.5) vs. Ohio State
The Pick: The biggest question in this game is what will the Longhorns attitude be? Will they come in frustrated that they didn't get a title shot and feeling like they should be playing in an even better bowl (aka the BCS National Championship Game)? Or will they come in feeling that if they win and win BIG, maybe they can sway enough AP voters to pull off the first split national championship since USC took home the AP vote in 2003 (LSU won the BCS title that year). From the Buckeyes' standpoint, this has been a "down" year for them, with "just" 10 wins and "just" an at large BCS bid. That said, they still have one of the top coaches in the country (Texas' Mack Brown has the advantage in recruiting, I think Ohio State's Jim Tressel has the edge in x's and o's) and a lot of talent. Just not as much talent as Texas. Ohio State's best shot is to run, run, run with Chris "Beanie" Wells and try to keep Colt McCoy and that dazzling Texas offense off the field. Unfortunately, I really don't see that happening.
The Pick: Texas to win and cover (and then some).
The BCS National Championship Game (7:00 CST, January 8th)
Florida (-3) vs. Oklahoma
The Take: Yes, Oklahoma is missing a starter on offense (tailback DeMarco Murray) and defense (tackle DeMarcus Granger). Yes, Heisman Trophy winners are 1-5 in national championship games. Yes, Bob Stoops has shown up small in his last several BCS bowl games. BUT, I still like the Sooners here, and here's why: Oklahoma can score. They can run (their "backup" Chris Brown rushed for over 1,000 yards) and pass (quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman, ya know) and Florida's defense, while it's been good this year, hasn't faced an offense like this all year. The Gator's offense is also extremely solid, but when the Sooners defense is motivated (see the Texas Tech game in November), it can cause a lot of problems. I see this game going one of two very similar ways: either the Sooners score early, jump out big and pull away early before the Gators come back and fall just short; or the Gators score early, jump out big and win in a landslide. After all the criticism he's taken in previous years, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Stoops has his guys ready this time, Oklahoma strikes early and often, and the Gators, despite valiant efforts, come up just short.
The Pick: Oklahoma to win in an upset and, of course, cover.
So what's your take?
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
Showing posts with label ncaa football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ncaa football. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Big Football Weekend
It's a big weekend for football this week as college bowl season has gotten under way and the NFL playoff hunt has kicked into full gear. On Saturday, two results really stood out to me. First, my alma mater Colorado State captured the coveted New Mexico Bowl title, defeating the Fresno State Bulldogs in a shootout between two teams with mediocre passing games and solid running games. Apparently, the run defenses decided to head to the offseason early. Here are a few thoughts shared by my brother Tony, another proud CSU alum, after watching yesterday's game (my comments are in bold):
-Gartrell Johnson was a beast, but give some credit to the blocking as he had lots of running room all game. His lack of breakaway speed was clear in the first quarter when he was caught from behind on a 50+ yarder, but he showed a surprising burst with the 77-yard TD run that sealed the win in the fourth quarter. It would be disappointing if Gartrell doesn't get a shot in some NFL team's training camp, even if just as a FB. -I completely agree. After what we've seen out of La'Ron McClain, a big, strong fullback for the Baltimore Ravens, it's clear that there's a place in the NFL for guys like Gartrell. He probably won't be drafted, but he may get a look as a free agent in someones camp.
-Billy Farris is really not much of a quarterback. That long TD pass to Greer in the fourth was well under-thrown and it lucky that it didn't get knocked down. He was not on target on anything he threw down field the rest of the game, except for the TD pass to [tight end Kory] Sperry. Hopefully CSU has someone better at throwing the ball on more than dump-offs next year. -Clearly the Rams cupboard was pretty dry at the quarterback position after last year's graduation of Caleb Hanie, so let's hope that head coach Steve Fairchild, a former quarterback himself, can find (or has found) a young QB to start grooming.
-Speaking of the TD pass to Sperry, that was a ballsy call by Steve Fairchild, but I think it was the right one. They had time to run the play and still kick a FG if they failed. The only way they would've not had a chance was with a sack or a completion short of the end zone, but Fresno had not been getting much pressure and the pass was clearly going only one place. The game was clearly going to be a shootout, and field goals would not lead to a win. -It was a great call, and a really great catch. It actually looked like Sperry was able to get both feet in on the play. That was best throw of the day by the erratic Farris as he put it right where it needed to be to give Sperry a chance without really risking a pick.
-I was disappointed to hear Sperry is only projected to be a 6-7 rounder. Somebody will be getting a steal if they take him that low. -He has the physical skills to be a solid receiving threat at TE. I have to wonder if his lack of stats this year was a matter of poor quarterbacking this year or if he was still getting healthy after that major knee injury last season.
-The defense struggled against the run, but was okay against the pass. There were a few passes where CSU definitely showed a lack of speed in the secondary, but otherwise they played pretty well. You have to wonder what Fresno QB Brandstater was thinking when he threw that screen pass right to DE Tommie Hill. It's indicative of your problem stopping the run when your defensive line gets pushed backwards three full yards on a QB sneak. -Both defenses struggled against the run and that may have been a case of, as the commentator said, not being used to contact after three weeks without games. Then again, evidently neither defense was all that good this year overall, so maybe it was just a case of poor play. As for Brandstater, for a guy that the commentator's say is a projected 5th rounder, he really didn't show me much. The few times he passed in the game (other than the two-minute drill in the fourth quarter when the Rams were in the dreaded prevent defense), he seemed inaccurate and his decision-making was suspect.
-Also give props to the defense for coming up with some big stops in the second half. Fresno had opportunities to drive down and expand their lead to two scores, but the Rams D kept it from happening, and when the team first took the lead, they came up with another big stop. -Again, if it was a case of the teams just getting used to contact, then it makes sense that their performance would improve as the game went on. The problem with Fresno State's defense is that even when they were in regular-season form, they still couldn't stop the run.
-Nice to see the Rams have a nationally-recognized player in Freshman All-American LB Mychal Sisson. Without a growth spurt, Sisson may only make it in the pros as a safety, but that's still years off. -The key to success for all college programs is not only bringing in big-time recruits, but also finding gems in lesser-touted players. Sisson may just be one of those gems.
-Special teams were a mess. Three good kickoff returns were called back on penalties, and the punt returner muffed three punts. At least he was finally benched for the last punt. -Alex Square had a rough day, to be sure, muffing three punts. The penalties on kick returns certainly made things more difficult than they needed to be on offense.
-It was good to see Kyle Bell make an impact on the game, recovering the on-side kick at the end of the fourth quarter. -Bell is a really disappointing story. He was a budding superstar in the Rams' last bowl season, but that knee injury clearly took its toll. I can only assume it's his health that is the reason for his dropoff. I hope he gets fully healthy and maybe, just maybe, gets a shot with a pro team.
-What is with Gary Kubiak's names for his kids, Klint and Klay? I hope their middle names don't start with K! -No comment.
-I stand by my belief that the FBS needs a playoff system, but I think the bowls are worth keeping around. The BCS bowl games can be between the teams who lose in the tourney. The New Mexico Bowl may not mean anything to most of the country, but it was an exciting game and was meaningful to fans of the teams that played in it. With 119 teams in the FBS division, letting 68 of them play one more game on national TV (the only time some of the teams will play on national TV all season) isn't such a bad thing. -I disagree with this, at least to the extent that I think the current bowl system is just flat-out bad business. I will discuss this in a later post.
Thanks to Tony for his insight. It was great to see the Rams have a performance like this on the national stage, and clearly they are moving in the right direction as a program. I think Sonny Lubick must be proud, wherever he is.
One last note: Let's just guess, probably on the high side, that the over/under for the Ravens vs. Cowboys game last night was 40 or 42. That's high for a game between two good defenses, but we'll go with it. If you had taken the under on the game, don't you think you would have basically spent that money before the fourth quarter started? Thinking about how smart you were and how easy that game was to call? Little did you know, the two teams would combine for 34 points (!) in the fourth quarter and ruin your night. Then again, I think the Cowboys night was still quite a bit worse.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
-Gartrell Johnson was a beast, but give some credit to the blocking as he had lots of running room all game. His lack of breakaway speed was clear in the first quarter when he was caught from behind on a 50+ yarder, but he showed a surprising burst with the 77-yard TD run that sealed the win in the fourth quarter. It would be disappointing if Gartrell doesn't get a shot in some NFL team's training camp, even if just as a FB. -I completely agree. After what we've seen out of La'Ron McClain, a big, strong fullback for the Baltimore Ravens, it's clear that there's a place in the NFL for guys like Gartrell. He probably won't be drafted, but he may get a look as a free agent in someones camp.
-Billy Farris is really not much of a quarterback. That long TD pass to Greer in the fourth was well under-thrown and it lucky that it didn't get knocked down. He was not on target on anything he threw down field the rest of the game, except for the TD pass to [tight end Kory] Sperry. Hopefully CSU has someone better at throwing the ball on more than dump-offs next year. -Clearly the Rams cupboard was pretty dry at the quarterback position after last year's graduation of Caleb Hanie, so let's hope that head coach Steve Fairchild, a former quarterback himself, can find (or has found) a young QB to start grooming.
-Speaking of the TD pass to Sperry, that was a ballsy call by Steve Fairchild, but I think it was the right one. They had time to run the play and still kick a FG if they failed. The only way they would've not had a chance was with a sack or a completion short of the end zone, but Fresno had not been getting much pressure and the pass was clearly going only one place. The game was clearly going to be a shootout, and field goals would not lead to a win. -It was a great call, and a really great catch. It actually looked like Sperry was able to get both feet in on the play. That was best throw of the day by the erratic Farris as he put it right where it needed to be to give Sperry a chance without really risking a pick.
-I was disappointed to hear Sperry is only projected to be a 6-7 rounder. Somebody will be getting a steal if they take him that low. -He has the physical skills to be a solid receiving threat at TE. I have to wonder if his lack of stats this year was a matter of poor quarterbacking this year or if he was still getting healthy after that major knee injury last season.
-The defense struggled against the run, but was okay against the pass. There were a few passes where CSU definitely showed a lack of speed in the secondary, but otherwise they played pretty well. You have to wonder what Fresno QB Brandstater was thinking when he threw that screen pass right to DE Tommie Hill. It's indicative of your problem stopping the run when your defensive line gets pushed backwards three full yards on a QB sneak. -Both defenses struggled against the run and that may have been a case of, as the commentator said, not being used to contact after three weeks without games. Then again, evidently neither defense was all that good this year overall, so maybe it was just a case of poor play. As for Brandstater, for a guy that the commentator's say is a projected 5th rounder, he really didn't show me much. The few times he passed in the game (other than the two-minute drill in the fourth quarter when the Rams were in the dreaded prevent defense), he seemed inaccurate and his decision-making was suspect.
-Also give props to the defense for coming up with some big stops in the second half. Fresno had opportunities to drive down and expand their lead to two scores, but the Rams D kept it from happening, and when the team first took the lead, they came up with another big stop. -Again, if it was a case of the teams just getting used to contact, then it makes sense that their performance would improve as the game went on. The problem with Fresno State's defense is that even when they were in regular-season form, they still couldn't stop the run.
-Nice to see the Rams have a nationally-recognized player in Freshman All-American LB Mychal Sisson. Without a growth spurt, Sisson may only make it in the pros as a safety, but that's still years off. -The key to success for all college programs is not only bringing in big-time recruits, but also finding gems in lesser-touted players. Sisson may just be one of those gems.
-Special teams were a mess. Three good kickoff returns were called back on penalties, and the punt returner muffed three punts. At least he was finally benched for the last punt. -Alex Square had a rough day, to be sure, muffing three punts. The penalties on kick returns certainly made things more difficult than they needed to be on offense.
-It was good to see Kyle Bell make an impact on the game, recovering the on-side kick at the end of the fourth quarter. -Bell is a really disappointing story. He was a budding superstar in the Rams' last bowl season, but that knee injury clearly took its toll. I can only assume it's his health that is the reason for his dropoff. I hope he gets fully healthy and maybe, just maybe, gets a shot with a pro team.
-What is with Gary Kubiak's names for his kids, Klint and Klay? I hope their middle names don't start with K! -No comment.
-I stand by my belief that the FBS needs a playoff system, but I think the bowls are worth keeping around. The BCS bowl games can be between the teams who lose in the tourney. The New Mexico Bowl may not mean anything to most of the country, but it was an exciting game and was meaningful to fans of the teams that played in it. With 119 teams in the FBS division, letting 68 of them play one more game on national TV (the only time some of the teams will play on national TV all season) isn't such a bad thing. -I disagree with this, at least to the extent that I think the current bowl system is just flat-out bad business. I will discuss this in a later post.
Thanks to Tony for his insight. It was great to see the Rams have a performance like this on the national stage, and clearly they are moving in the right direction as a program. I think Sonny Lubick must be proud, wherever he is.
One last note: Let's just guess, probably on the high side, that the over/under for the Ravens vs. Cowboys game last night was 40 or 42. That's high for a game between two good defenses, but we'll go with it. If you had taken the under on the game, don't you think you would have basically spent that money before the fourth quarter started? Thinking about how smart you were and how easy that game was to call? Little did you know, the two teams would combine for 34 points (!) in the fourth quarter and ruin your night. Then again, I think the Cowboys night was still quite a bit worse.
If you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for the blog, please post below or I can be reached at chrisf884@gmail.com. Thanks for reading.
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